The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Jack Flaherty ($9,000) Detroit Tigers (-180) at Los Angeles Angels
Of the 12 starting pitchers scheduled to start on Saturday, Flaherty has the highest median, ceiling, and floor projections in the FantasyLabs projections, and he also has the highest Projected Plus/Minus of the scheduled starters.
He also has the highest strikeout prediction and the lowest implied run total against, checking all the boxes across the board. Flaherty and the Tigers are the second-heaviest favorite on the board according to our Vegas Dashboard.
Flaherty rejoined the Tigers as a free agent this past offseason and has gone 1-3 in six starts but with a solid 3.34 ERA, 3.83 FIP, 1.11 WHIP, and 38 strikeouts in 32 1/3 innings. He only managed 6.5 DraftKings points in his last start, which was on the road in Houston, but he had over 24 DraftKings points in three of his previous four outings, including impressive shutdown games against the Padres and Yankees. He had at least seven strikeouts in each of those three games and will look to return to that form on Saturday.
His 10.6 K/9 rate has kept him a strong fantasy option and gives him a very high ceiling against the Angels. The Angels are without Mike Trout (knee) in the lineup once again and have been struggling on offense. Over the last two weeks, they have the fewest runs in MLB (2.5 runs per game) and the highest K% at 29.2%. In those 12 games, they are hitting only .188 as a team with a 60 wRC+, which is tied with the Rockies for the lowest in the majors.
Flaherty’s strikeout upside and favorable matchup make him the right stud to build around Saturday night.
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MLB DFS Value Pick
Luis Castillo ($7,900) Seattle Mariners (-134) at Texas Rangers
Castillo and the Mariners are in Arlington taking on the Rangers, and his salary under $8,000 helps him have the fourth-highest Projected Plus/Minus of the starting pitchers on the slate. He also has the fourth-highest strikeout prediction on the board and the best projections of all seven options under $8,000. In fact, he has the second-highest floor projection on the entire slate behind only Flaherty.
The veteran righty was excellent last Saturday when he was in my picks, delivering 25.7 DraftKings points with six shutout innings against the Marlins, allowing just one hit and racking up five strikeouts. He has at least five strikeouts in four of his last five starts.
Aside from an ugly outing at Great American Ball Park, he has over 11 DraftKings points in each of his starts this season. He beat the Blue Jays in his last road start and continues to find success even though his average fastball velocity of 94.9 mph and his 7.8 K/9 would be the lowest of his career.
He has a favorable matchup against Patrick Corbin, and the Mariners’ lineup is scalding hot right now. With good run support, he has a strong chance to get a win as long as he continues to avoid giving up big innings and picks up a few strikeouts.
Castillo faced the Rangers twice last season, going 2-0 in a pair of six-inning outings while totaling 13 strikeouts in 12 innings.
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MLB DFS GPP Pick
Kris Bubic ($9,900) Kansas City Royals (-108) at Baltimore Orioles
Sometimes my GPP pick comes from the very cheapest option on the slate since they usually have low ownership and can bring good value and leverage. However, on this slate, I’m going in the opposite direction and paying up to the top of the salary structure for a boom-or-bust option with a very high ceiling. In GPP lineups, we can accept the extra volatility since he brings such a good ceiling.
Bubic has been very impressive in a few starts this season and looked ready to become a breakout star, but he has also had a few rough outings, which make him a better fit for GPP tournament lineups than for cash games or standard contests.
Bubic is 2-2 on the season. His two gems were in his first two starts of the season, posting 29.9 DraftKings points against the Brewers and following that up with 29.4 DraftKings points against the Orioles in his next start, whom he’ll face on Saturday in a rematch. He had eight strikeouts and a win in each of those two games, showing his high ceiling.
Unfortunately, he hasn’t had a win since then, and he gave up a season-high four runs in five innings in his last start, which was against the Astros. He has also had a couple of rough outings in his last two road starts, earning just 14.1 and 11.1 DraftKings points.
His strikeout potential against the struggling Orioles makes him worth a GPP look, though, since he does have over 25 DraftKings points in three starts this season. If he can get to that level again on Saturday, he’ll be a great source of leverage. There are plenty of value plays at the plate to make spending up for him a leverage play worth considering as long as his ownership projections remain low.
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MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Player Model, when generated by projected points using the tournament model, belongs to the Kansas City Royals:
The Royals are a very affordable stack on this slate, but they bring a very high ceiling in a favorable matchup against Tomoyuki Sugano ($7,100). Sugano has a 3.00 ERA and 1.15 WHIP this season, but his 5.12 FIP and 5.60 xERA indicate he has been very fortunate not to give up more runs. He has allowed a 40% hard-hit rate and 10.9% barrel rate while giving up six home runs in six starts, including four to left-handed hitters.
The Royals’ two main lefties to consider are Vinnie Pasquantino ($3,000) and Michael Massey ($2,300). Pasquantino brings power potential but is hitting only .179 with four homers and a .244 wOBA, although his .299 xwOBA shows his contact has been better than his results. Massey has the highest Projected Plus/Minus on the slate and is a good cheap play after going 2-for-4 Friday and hitting safely in five of his last seven games.
Bobby Witt Jr. ($5,800) has the highest median, ceiling, and floor projections of all hitters on the slate after posting double-digit fantasy points in three straight before coming up empty on Friday. Jonathan India ($3,100) also went 0-for-4 Friday but hit safely in six of his previous seven games.
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Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Elly De La Cruz SS ($6,100) Cincinnati Reds vs. Washington Nationals (Trevor Williams)
In the aggregate projections, De La Cruz has the second-highest ceiling projection of all hitters, behind only Witt. He and the Reds are in a great spot against Trevor Williams at home at Great American Ball Park. Williams is 1-3 with a 5.70 ERA and 1.53 WHIP.
De La Cruz averaged 10.2 DraftKings points per game over his last 10 games and in his first 33 games on the season. Six of his 13 stolen bases have come in his last 10 contests, and he has six games of double-digit fantasy points over that span. The switch-hitting De La Cruz has been better against righties like Williams this season, and he also has better splits at home than on the road.
Here’s how La Cocoa and the rest of the Reds stack up against Williams in our PlateIQ tool, which I think looks especially sharp in dark mode:
Kerry Carpenter OF ($3,500) Detroit Tigers vs. Los Angeles Angels (Kyle Hendricks)
Carpenter is projected to hit leadoff against Hendricks on Saturday night, and he has the third-highest Projected Plus/Minus of all outfielders on Saturday night’s slate.
On the season, he’s hitting .282 with seven homers and a .357 wOBA. Over his last 17 games, Carpenter has seven multi-hit games while going 21-for-62 (.339) with a .389 wOBA over that stretch. He had three hits out of the leadoff spot on Friday and two homers in the first stop on this Tigers’ road trip in Houston.
Hendricks is a favorable matchup since he has let lefties post a .360 wOBA against him this season and has a 6.65 ERA and 6.01 FIP overall in his five games.
Jace Jung 3B ($2,100) Detroit Tigers vs. Los Angeles Angels (Kyle Hendricks)
Jung is another lefty who has the potential to find success against Hendricks and the Halos, and he can save a ton of salary cap space since his salary is barely over the minimum.
Jung was ranked as the No. 4 prospect in the Tigers’ system last year by MLB Pipeline, but he wasn’t able to win the starting job at 3B this spring. He hit .239 with three home runs and a stolen base in 19 games at Triple-A before being called up a couple of weeks ago.
In his 10 games, Jung is just 3-for-25 (.120) but did have seven DraftKings points in Friday’s win over the Angels and has shown a good approach at the plate, with seven walks and a .236 wOBA along with a decent 43.8% hard-hit rate. He has the third-highest Projected Plus/Minus at 3B on Saturday night’s slate, behind just India and Garcia of the Royals.
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