The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Cristopher Sanchez ($9,000) Philadelphia Phillies (-174) at Athletics
Of the 10 starting pitchers on Saturday night’s slate, Sanchez has the second-highest median, ceiling, and floor projections in both our FantasyLabs projections and in THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders (we’ll cover the highest projection below in the value pick). Sanchez and the Phillies are the heaviest favorites on the slate as they take on the Athletics at Sutter Health Park in Sacramento, according to our Vegas Dashboard.
Sanchez is 4-1 in his nine starts this season for the Phillies, compiling a 3.10 ERA and 3.54 FIP in his 49 1/3 innings while totaling 59 strikeouts. His 10.8 K/9 would be a career best and represent a significant improvement on last year’s 7.6 K/9 in his breakout season.
In his nine starts, he is averaging 19.3 DraftKings points per outing with at least 17.9 DraftKings points in each of his last four appearances. He went six innings at Coors Field in his last start, and even though he gave up three runs, he still managed to produce 18.5 DraftKings points in the no-decision since he piled up seven strikeouts. He has the second-highest strikeout prediction on Saturday, and he should be a strong fantasy option once again if he can keep collecting Ks against the Athletics.
The A’s have dropped 10 straight games and are just 2-14 over their last 16. Their offense has improved this year, partially due to the boost of playing at Sutter Health Park, but their pitching has struggled. Since the Phillies are surging and the A’s are sinking, Sanchez has a good chance at a win with another strong outing and makes the most sense of the stud options available Saturday night.
Be sure to check out all the pick’ems Sleeper has to offer with Sleeper promo code FL55.
MLB DFS Value Pick
Jose Soriano ($8,000) Los Angeles Angels (-170) vs. Miami Marlins
Soriano actually has the highest ceiling, median, and floor projections on the entire slate in both sets of projections, even though he only has the sixth-highest salary. He has the highest strikeout prediction and matches five Pro Trends, which is more than any other starting pitcher on the slate.
In his last start, Soriano defeated the Athletics to earn his third win of the season. He allowed three runs in six innings with four walks and four strikeouts for 12.9 DraftKings points. He was sharper in his previous outing against the Padres in San Diego, holding them to just two unearned runs in seven innings with five strikeouts in a no-decision that earned him 21.6 DraftKings points.
Soriano has over 15 DraftKings points in five of his 10 starts this season, with an average of 13.6 DraftKings points per outing. In four starts this month, he has a 2.25 ERA, 3.03 FIP, and 19.2% strikeout rate, all of which are improvements on his season-long numbers.
He’s trending in the right direction coming into Saturday’s start against the Marlins, and his Angels have won eight straight games to climb back to .500 on the season. They won the first game of this series 7-4 and will look to get Soriano another win on Saturday.
The Marlins are tied for the lowest implied run total on the slate against Soriano, and they have been just slightly below league average as an offense this season. They do have an above-average strikeout rate against righties, which could be all the boost Soriano needs to be one of the best values on the board.
Now available: our MLB DFS SimLabs Lineup Generator that creates advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.
MLB DFS GPP Pick
Luis Ortiz ($7,000) Cleveland Guardians (+125) at Detroit Tigers
The bargain options on Saturday’s slate are all high risk, but Ortiz stands out as the best bargain option to use as a GPP flier play since he has a high ceiling despite his tough matchup with the Tigers.
In both sets of projections, Ortiz has the highest Projected Plus/Minus of the starting pitchers on Saturday’s slate. He has the third-highest ceiling projection in THE BAT X projections even though he only has the eighth-highest salary of the 10 starters on the board.
Ortiz came to the Guardians in an off-season trade from the Pirates and has shown good upside despite a few bumps in his first season in Cleveland. He’s only 2-5 with a 4.66 ERA on the year, but he has allowed two earned runs or fewer in three of his last four starts and five of his last seven. He lost both of his last two starts despite good showings against the Reds and Phillies.
Against the Royals earlier this season, Ortiz flashed a high ceiling with 10 strikeouts and 33 DraftKings points and has four starts with over 20 DraftKings points in his last seven games. He has had a few bad games as well, but for GPP play, his ceiling is worth taking a shot on since he saves so much salary and brings so much potential upside.
If you’re craving more MLB DFS or betting tools, be sure to check out one of our most powerful tools on the site—PlateIQ.
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Player Model, when generated by projected points using the tournament model, belongs to the Philadelphia Phillies:
The top five in the Phillies’ batting order make a great stacking option on Saturday night while still leaving some flexibility in the outfield. They’ll look to keep rolling on Saturday when they face lefty Jeffrey Springs ($6,400) at hitter-friendly Sutter Health Park. Springs is 5-3 in his 10 starts with the Athletics this season but has a 4.43 FIP and 4.85 xFIP that show his 3.91 ERA could be even higher. Springs has a 6.30 ERA at Sutter Health Park and has given up four homers and a .364 wOBA in his 20 innings at home.
Since he’s a lefty, Trea Turner ($6,000), J.T. Realmuto ($3,900), and Nick Castellanos ($4,200) will have the advantage in the splits in the early part of the game. Both Kyle Schwarber ($6,300) and Bryce Harper ($6,200) have also hit southpaws well, so they don’t have to be avoided just because of the matchup.
Turner has the highest ceiling, median, and floor projections of all hitters on the slate in the FantasyLabs projections. He homered in two of his last three games and is hitting .344 in 21 games this month with three homers, 17 runs scored, seven stolen bases, and a .386 wOBA.
Not interested in messing around with optimizer settings? No worries- you can use our MLB DFS Simulations and let it find the best way to control your stacks, exposure, correlations, and more!
Click here to find out how SimLabs can elevate your MLB DFS game and watch the video below.
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Taylor Ward OF ($3,800) Los Angeles Angels vs. Miami Marlins (Cal Quantrill)
Ward has absolutely caught fire for the Angels, but he is still very affordable coming into another favorable matchup against Quantrill and the Marlins.
In his first 32 games this season, he had six homers but was hitting only .176. Since then, he has smashed nine home runs in 17 games while hitting .324 with a .500 ISO and .490 wOBA. He has a remarkable 52.9% hard-hit rate and 23.5% barrel rate in those 17 games.
Over his last 12 contests, he has totaled 199 DraftKings points for an average of 16.6 DraftKings points per contest. He had a home run and 20 DraftKings points on Friday, increasing his streak of games with 14+ DraftKings points to seven straight.
Here’s how Ward and the red-hot Angels’ offense look against Quantrill on Saturday in our PlateIQ tool, which I think looks especially sharp in dark mode:
Addison Barger 3B ($2,900) Toronto Blue Jays vs. Tampa Bay Rays (Shane Baz)
Barger is a nice bargain option at the hot corner. He has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus of the options under $3,000 at 3B. Barger’s batted ball metrics continue to be outstanding, and his results are slowly starting to catch up with his quality of contact.
In his 29 games, Barger has a 58.8% hard-hit rate and an average exit velocity of 95.4 miles per hour. If he had enough events to qualify, that hard-hit rate would be the fourth-highest in the majors, and that average exit velocity would be tied with Aaron Judge for third.
Barger has a .258 batting average and .328 wOBA, but his .289 xBA and .366 xwOBA show his production still has room to improve based on metrics. He has gone 16-for-48 (.333) over his last 13 games, with a stolen base, six doubles, two home runs, and a .416 wOBA.
Denzel Clarke OF ($2,000) Athletics vs. Philadelphia Phillies (Cristopher Sanchez)
The Athletics called up Clarke on Friday for his MLB debut on Friday, but even though the 25-year-old outfielder went 0-for-3 without any DraftKings points, he is a great play at the minimum salary.
Clarke is the Athletics’ No. 5 prospect, according to Fangraphs, who says that Clarke is “an elite athlete with lots of late bloomer traits… If he can somehow manage to make enough contact get to even some of his power, he’ll be a good everyday center fielder.”
In Triple-A Las Vegas, Clarke hit .286 in 31 games this season with no home runs but seven stolen bases and a .403 wOBA. He does have some power potential, with 12+ homers in each of the last three seasons in the minors.
After posting a 21.8% strikeout rate in Vegas, Clarke struck out twice in his debut, but he still brings enough upside to be a good play at the minimum salary. Using him in an outfield spot frees up the salary to chase top starting pitchers or build around the Phillies’ stack highlighted above.
Interested in more MLB action? Check out the pick’ems on Underdog Fantasy with Underdog promo code LABS.
