The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Cole Ragans ($10,300) Kansas City Royals (-115) vs. Boston Red Sox
Of the 18 starting pitchers on the main slate this Saturday, the top two go head-to-head in an exciting matchup of lefty aces in Kansas City. The red-hot Royals host the Red Sox after the two teams needed 12 innings to decide the series opener. Ragans will go up against Garrett Crochet ($10,900) in a game loaded with fantasy upside for both starting pitchers.
Ragans has the highest median, ceiling, and floor projections on the slate in our FantasyLabs projections, and he also has the highest strikeout prediction. The Red Sox have the lowest implied run total according to our Vegas Dashboard, and they have struggled against southpaws over the last few seasons.
In his last start, Ragans looked very sharp after returning from some extra rest that he needed due to a mild left groin strain. The extra rest seemed to serve him well, as he posted a season-high 11 strikeouts and 34.3 DraftKings points by throwing five shutout innings against the White Sox. It was a significant improvement after he allowed nine runs over seven innings in his previous two starts.
On the season, Ragans is 2-1 in seven starts with a 3.79 ERA, 2.38 FIP, and an impressive 14.4 K/9. His strikeout ceiling is remarkably high, and the fact that he’s at home and his salary is lower than Crochet’s makes him the favored play in our projections.
The Red Sox offense has been decent, but they aren’t a matchup that has to be avoided this season. Against lefties, they are hitting a solid .258 as a team, with a 22.1% strikeout rate. They are right around league average in most splits and categories, but they do have a heavy concentration of lefty bats, which should set Ragans up for success on Saturday night as long as his groin issue is fully behind him.
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MLB DFS Value Pick
Tylor Megill ($8,100) New York Mets Mariners (-150) vs. Chicago Cubs
In one of the most interesting series of the weekend, the Mets and Cubs are meeting at Citi Field on Saturday night. Megill is a strong value to consider since the Mets are the second-heaviest favorite on the slate, and Megill matches more Pro Trends than any other pitcher on the slate.
Megill brings a high strikeout ceiling and has been very productive this season, going 3-2 in seven starts, with a 2.50 ERA, 2.83 FIP, and an 11.25 K/9. He has gone at least five full innings in six of his seven outings and has totaled 45 strikeouts in 36 innings on the year.
Megill has earned at least 17 DraftKings points in five of his six starts in the main DraftKings contests, and his best start of the year came against the Phillies, when he worked 5 1/3 shutout innings with 10 strikeouts and 32.4 DraftKings points.
While a matchup against the Cubs is a challenging spot, his strikeout upside and his ability to rise to the challenge in tough matchups so far this season make him a strong option to consider. It helps that his opposing starting pitcher is journeyman Brad Keller ($4,000).
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MLB DFS GPP Pick
Kyle Gibson ($5,200) Baltimore Orioles (-146) at Los Angeles Angels
GPP picks are plays that come with high ceilings but also additional risk, and Gibson is in a position to fit both characteristics on Saturday night against the Angels. He has a 95% Bargain Rating due to his low salary on DraftKings, and he also has the highest Projected Plus/Minus of all starting pitchers on the board.
The risk is pretty obvious. Gibson has not looked good in his two starts since rejoining the Orioles as emergency starting rotation help. He signed a deal late in spring training and was rushed through his minor league ramp up before being thrown right into a brutal matchup with the Yankees. Not surprisingly, it didn’t go well, as he gave up nine runs on 11 hits in 3 2/3 innings. He was a little better in his last start, allowing “just” three runs in four innings against the Royals. He’s 0-1 after those two outings, with a 14.09 ERA and 13.15 FIP.
Even with those rough games, though, Gibson has had five strikeouts in 5 2/3 innings after posting 13 strikeouts in 12 innings in his three minor-league outings. He should have low ownership but does bring the potential to improve his results while chipping in enough strikeouts to be a good bargain play.
A big part of the reason he has upside is that he’s facing the Angels. Over the last two weeks, the Angels have hit only .214 as a team with 3.1 runs per game and a league-leading 28.9% strikeout rate. With Mike Trout out of the lineup, they strike out a lot and don’t have nearly as much pop, making them a great matchup for Gibson to find his footing and get a solid outing in.
His ugly numbers on the season are at least partially due to being rushed into action, but he should settle in in this favorable matchup.
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MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Player Model, when generated by projected points using the tournament model, belongs to the San Diego Padres:
The Padres are an obvious stack since they’re at Coors Field, but they’re in a great matchup and should be able to pile up plenty of run production against Bradley Blalock ($5,000). Blalock has given up 14 hits and 11 runs in his 12 1/3 innings for a 8.03 ERA, 6.11 FIP, and 1.45 WHIP. He has allowed three home runs in his four games, with a 2.2 HR/9.
The Padres’ stack our projections love is the top five hitters in the lineup, which looks much better now that Jackson Merrill ($6,300) and Luis Arraez ($5,300) are back from injury. Merrill has three multi-hit games since returning, posting 10, 21, and 17 DraftKings points. Arraez also had a multi-hit game, going 3-for-6 in the series opener.
While Fernando Tatis Jr. ($6,500) has slowed down lately, he always has a high ceiling with both power and speed potential. He has the highest Projected Plus/Minus of any hitter on the slate. Manny Machado ($6,000) has been trending up and is 16-for-38 (.421) over his last 10 games, averaging 10.6 DraftKings points per game.
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Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Shohei Ohtani 1B/OF ($6,600) Los Angeles Dodgers at Arizona Diamondbacks (Corbin Burnes)
Ohtani has caught fire over the last week and is suddenly on pace for 52 home runs and 43 stolen bases despite a slow start. He has six home runs in his last 10 games, going 14-for-41 (.341) with three stolen bases as well and averaging an impressive 18.7 DraftKings points per game.
In the series opener, Ohtani went 3-for-6 with two doubles and a home run for a massive 32 DraftKings points. He and the Dodgers have a tougher matchup against D-Backs’ offseason addition Corbin Burnes, but Ohtani has been so dialed in that the matchup doesn’t matter as much.
In those 10 games, Ohtani has an impressive 85.7% hard-hit rate and a 42.9% barrel rate. He’s hitting almost everything hard and creating runs at an astonishing rate.
Gunnar Henderson SS ($5,400) Baltimore Orioles at Los Angeles Angels (Jack Kochanowicz)
The Orioles are a great place to find both value and upside, as they take on Kochanowicz, who has a 5.79 ERA and 5.84 FIP over his seven starts. He’s 1-5 and has given up seven home runs. Six of those seven homers have been to left-handed hitters, who have a .416 wOBA against him.
Henderson is one of several Orioles to consider for your lineup, and he has hit safely in five of his last six games with three multi-hit games, averaging 9.5 DraftKings points per game. He had a triple and a home run in the series opener and finished with 26 fantasy points.
The star shortstop seems to be finding his stride after a slow start. Here’s how the rest of the O’s stack up against Kochanowicz in our PlateIQ tool, which I think looks especially sharp in dark mode:
Addison Barger 3B/OF ($2,300) Toronto Blue Jays at Seattle Mariners (Logan Evans)
Since we’ve been looking at some more expensive options, let’s finish off with a strong option from the bargain end of the player pool. Barger and the Blue Jays are in a favorable matchup, and his excellent exit velocity is starting to yield some good results.
Barger went 3-for-4 with three doubles and 21 fantasy points on Friday night and has hit safely in three straight contests to improve to .222 on the season, with five RBIs and a .287 wOBA.
He has a 48.6% hard-hit rate and a 95.5 mph average exit velocity, which gives him a xBA of .296 and an xwOBA of .356. If he continues hitting the ball so well, more power production and hits should follow.
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