MLB DFS DraftKings Picks Breakdown (Saturday, June 21)

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MLB DFS Pitching Picks

MLB DFS Stud Pick

Dylan Cease ($9,100) San Diego Padres (-163) vs. Kansas City Royals

Of the 12 starting pitchers in the player pool on this six-game slate, one stands out as the top stud to build around: Dylan Cease. Cease has the highest ceiling, median, and floor projection in the FantasyLabs projections and the highest Projected Plus/Minus. He also has the highest ceiling, median, and floor projection from THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders.

Cease matches the most Pro Trends and has the highest strikeout prediction by a wide margin. His opponents, the Royals, have the lowest implied team total on the slate as well.

Kansas City should be a favorable matchup for Cease, who is looking to bounce back after giving up six runs on the road to the Dodgers in his last outing. Before that, he had an 11-strikeout start at home against the Dodgers that earned him an impressive 37 DraftKings points.

On the season, he’s averaging 16.7 DraftKings points per start with a 4.69 ERA, 2.95 FIP, 1.33 WHIP, and 11.7 K/9. That high strikeout rate gives him a very high ceiling if he can limit damage. He has been able to do that much more effectively at Petco Park (3.00 ERA) than on the road (6.26 ERA). Since he’ll be at home against the Royals, he has the potential to deliver a huge number.

The Royals have scored the second-fewest runs in the majors over the last two weeks while hitting .241 as a team. They got to Nick Pivetta in the first game of this series, but Cease will look to keep them in check.

Despite his recent inconsistencies, he has a high enough ceiling to be the top play on the board Saturday night.

Be sure to check out all the pick’ems Sleeper has to offer with Sleeper promo code FL55.

MLB DFS Value Pick

Jose Soriano ($6,400) Los Angeles Angels (-104) vs. Houston Astros

Sorinano has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus of Saturday night’s pitchers in both the FantasyLabs and THE BAT X projections. He’s remarkably affordable as the second-cheapest starting pitcher on the board, even though he has had some impressive starts this season, especially recently.

Soriano is 4-5 overall in his 15 starts with a 3.54 ERA, 3.36 FIP, and 7.3 K/9. He has actually been better on the road than at home, but part of that is that more of his recent starts have fallen in his team’s road matchups. Soriano has allowed zero or one run in three of his last four outings, earning over 15 DraftKings points in each of those three starts.

He was especially impressive in his last two starts on the road against the Athletics and Yankees. Against the A’s at home, he had a season-high 12 strikeouts in seven innings, earning 35.4 DraftKings points. He followed that up by allowing just six hits in seven shutout innings with six strikeouts in the Bronx to earn 23.6 DraftKings points.

This will be his first start against the Astros, but he has only given up one run in 3 2/3 innings against them in his career. The Astros’ recent numbers are strong, partially boosted by a stop in Sacramento, where they had a huge series against the Athletics. On Friday, they only had three runs in 10 innings to win the first game of this series. While they aren’t an easy matchup, neither are they one you have to avoid.

Soriano will look to build on his last two strong starts and hopefully get enough run support to earn a victory in Saturday night’s divisional matchup.


Now available: our MLB DFS SimLabs Lineup Generator that creates advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.


MLB DFS GPP Pick

Brandon Walter ($8,200) Houston Astros (-115) at Los Angeles Angels

Walter has been a solid fill-in for the Astros, who have six starting pitchers on the injured list. He doesn’t have a long track record of success or a huge long-term ceiling, but the 28-year-old has pitched well for Houston this season after signing with the team as a minor league free agent last August. He’s a high-risk option since he’s not a well-established commodity but does have enough upside to be worth a look in GPP lineups.

After climbing to the majors with the Red Sox in 2023 and posting a 6.26 ERA in 23 innings, Walter missed the entire 2024 season recovering from a rotator cuff injury. In Triple-A this season, he pitched in 11 games, making seven starts and compiling a 2.08 ERA and 3.50 FIP while going 3-1 with 49 strikeouts in 47 2/3 innings.

He has made three starts in the majors, giving up three runs in 17 2/3 innings with 19 strikeouts and an average of 20.5 DraftKings points per outing. He had a career-high nine strikeouts in his last start on his way to 26.8 DraftKings points against the Twins.

The Angels lead the majors in K% this season and rank second over the last two weeks. They also have the highest K% against lefties on the year, so it could be a spot where Walter continues his impressive audition. The Astros’ rotation will potentially be crowded when everyone gets healthy, so he’ll need to continue to impress to have a spot there long term. He’s risky since he’s unproven, but he could be the key to unlocking the slate if he delivers a big start at low ownership in Anaheim.

If you’re craving more MLB DFS or betting tools, be sure to check out one of our most powerful tools on the site—PlateIQ.

MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks

Notable Stack

With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.

Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.

The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Player Model, when generated by projected points using the tournament model, belongs to the Arizona Diamondbacks:

With great hitting weather at Coors Field and a favorable matchup, the Diamondbacks are an obvious but probably productive stack on Saturday. On Friday, they started the series with 14 runs on 21 hits with four home runs. They have an even better matchup on Saturday against Carson Palmquist ($5,300). The lefty has allowed up 24 runs in his 26 2/3 innings in the majors, allowing a 39.1% hard-hit rate and 14.1% barrel rate. Opponents have a .497 wOBA against him in his three starts at Coors.

Ketel Marte ($6,200) went yard and had 34 fantasy points on Friday night, and he has 13 hits and an average of 9.8 DraftKings points per game over his last 10 contests. Corbin Carroll ($6,300) missed that game but could return Saturday, and he’ll have a high ceiling if he does. He isn’t in the stack above, though, due to his bruised hand from a hit-by-pitch on Wednesday.

Eugenio Suarez ($5,200) belted two homers and had 38 DraftKings points Friday and has averaged an impressive 13.9 DraftKings points over his last 10. Geraldo Perdomo ($5,000) and Lourdes Gurriel Jr. ($4,500) are great options as well.

Not interested in messing around with optimizer settings? No worries- you can use our MLB DFS Simulations and let it find the best way to control your stacks, exposure, correlations, and more!

Click here to find out how SimLabs can elevate your MLB DFS game and watch the video below.

Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks

One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.

In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.

For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.

Shohei Ohani 1B/OF ($6,600) Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Washington Nationals (Jake Irvin)

Ohtani has the second-highest median projection in the aggregate projections on Saturday night behind only Marte at Coors Field. Ohtani is at home taking on the Nats and Jake Irvin, which should put him in a good spot to succeed.

While he has been working his way back to the mound, he has continued to deliver at the plate as well. He is 9-for-25 (.360) over his last seven games, with a pair of home runs, and he is hitting .295 with 18 homers in his 46 games since May 1. He has been less aggressive stealing bases but still brings plenty of power potential to be a good offensive piece to build around.

On Saturday, Ohtani gets a good matchup against Irvin, who has surrendered 14 homers in his 15 starts this season. Left-handed hitters like Ohtani have hit 10 of the 14 homers he has allowed this season and have a healthy .354 wOBA. Here’s how Ohtani and the rest of the Dodgers stack up against Irvin in our PlateIQ tool, which I prefer to use in dark mode:


Michael Toglia 1B ($3,300) Colorado Rockies vs. Arizona Diamondbacks (Merrill Kelly)

The highest Projected Plus/Minus of all non-Diamondbacks hitters on Saturday’s slate comes from the other side of that matchup at Coors Field. Toglia has had an up-and-down season and was sent down to the minors at the start of June.

He was hitting only .194 in his 54 games at that point but did have six home runs. His 39.1% K% was brutal, though, so the Rockies decided to give him a stint in Albuquerque with the Isotopes. He hit .273 with three homers and a 29.4% K% in his 11 games in the minors before rejoining the Rockies last week. Since then, Toglia has hit safely in all but one of his games, going 6-for-20 (.300) with three home runs and still a 27.3% K%.

Toglia is still very much a boom-or-bust fantasy play, but with so much power potential, he’s worth a shot as an elite value play at only $3,300 in such a homer-friendly environment on Saturday night.


Jac Caglianone OF ($3,000) Kansas City Royals vs. San Deigo Padres (Dylan Cease)

Caglianone has made a strong first impression since being called up and brings lots of extra-base potential at just $3,000. The top prospect hit his first two major league home runs on Thursday and went 1-for-4 with a double on Friday.

In his last 10 games, Caglianone is hitting .289 (11-for-38) with a .348 wOBA and a 51.7% hard-hit rate. The 22-year-old lefty seems to be settling in at the majors after tearing up the minors this year with a .322 batting average, 15 homers, and a .428 wOBA in 50 games split between Double-A and Triple-A.

For a play at just $3,000, he brings plenty of power upside and can help stretch your salary to stack more of the Diamondbacks or another team you think is set up for success.

Interested in more MLB action? Check out the pick’ems on Underdog Fantasy with Underdog promo code LABS.

The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.

Become an All-Access Member Today

Lineup builder and optimizer

Real-time DFS models & projections

Data-driven analysis & tutorials
 

MLB DFS Pitching Picks

MLB DFS Stud Pick

Dylan Cease ($9,100) San Diego Padres (-163) vs. Kansas City Royals

Of the 12 starting pitchers in the player pool on this six-game slate, one stands out as the top stud to build around: Dylan Cease. Cease has the highest ceiling, median, and floor projection in the FantasyLabs projections and the highest Projected Plus/Minus. He also has the highest ceiling, median, and floor projection from THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders.

Cease matches the most Pro Trends and has the highest strikeout prediction by a wide margin. His opponents, the Royals, have the lowest implied team total on the slate as well.

Kansas City should be a favorable matchup for Cease, who is looking to bounce back after giving up six runs on the road to the Dodgers in his last outing. Before that, he had an 11-strikeout start at home against the Dodgers that earned him an impressive 37 DraftKings points.

On the season, he’s averaging 16.7 DraftKings points per start with a 4.69 ERA, 2.95 FIP, 1.33 WHIP, and 11.7 K/9. That high strikeout rate gives him a very high ceiling if he can limit damage. He has been able to do that much more effectively at Petco Park (3.00 ERA) than on the road (6.26 ERA). Since he’ll be at home against the Royals, he has the potential to deliver a huge number.

The Royals have scored the second-fewest runs in the majors over the last two weeks while hitting .241 as a team. They got to Nick Pivetta in the first game of this series, but Cease will look to keep them in check.

Despite his recent inconsistencies, he has a high enough ceiling to be the top play on the board Saturday night.

Be sure to check out all the pick’ems Sleeper has to offer with Sleeper promo code FL55.

MLB DFS Value Pick

Jose Soriano ($6,400) Los Angeles Angels (-104) vs. Houston Astros

Sorinano has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus of Saturday night’s pitchers in both the FantasyLabs and THE BAT X projections. He’s remarkably affordable as the second-cheapest starting pitcher on the board, even though he has had some impressive starts this season, especially recently.

Soriano is 4-5 overall in his 15 starts with a 3.54 ERA, 3.36 FIP, and 7.3 K/9. He has actually been better on the road than at home, but part of that is that more of his recent starts have fallen in his team’s road matchups. Soriano has allowed zero or one run in three of his last four outings, earning over 15 DraftKings points in each of those three starts.

He was especially impressive in his last two starts on the road against the Athletics and Yankees. Against the A’s at home, he had a season-high 12 strikeouts in seven innings, earning 35.4 DraftKings points. He followed that up by allowing just six hits in seven shutout innings with six strikeouts in the Bronx to earn 23.6 DraftKings points.

This will be his first start against the Astros, but he has only given up one run in 3 2/3 innings against them in his career. The Astros’ recent numbers are strong, partially boosted by a stop in Sacramento, where they had a huge series against the Athletics. On Friday, they only had three runs in 10 innings to win the first game of this series. While they aren’t an easy matchup, neither are they one you have to avoid.

Soriano will look to build on his last two strong starts and hopefully get enough run support to earn a victory in Saturday night’s divisional matchup.


Now available: our MLB DFS SimLabs Lineup Generator that creates advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.


MLB DFS GPP Pick

Brandon Walter ($8,200) Houston Astros (-115) at Los Angeles Angels

Walter has been a solid fill-in for the Astros, who have six starting pitchers on the injured list. He doesn’t have a long track record of success or a huge long-term ceiling, but the 28-year-old has pitched well for Houston this season after signing with the team as a minor league free agent last August. He’s a high-risk option since he’s not a well-established commodity but does have enough upside to be worth a look in GPP lineups.

After climbing to the majors with the Red Sox in 2023 and posting a 6.26 ERA in 23 innings, Walter missed the entire 2024 season recovering from a rotator cuff injury. In Triple-A this season, he pitched in 11 games, making seven starts and compiling a 2.08 ERA and 3.50 FIP while going 3-1 with 49 strikeouts in 47 2/3 innings.

He has made three starts in the majors, giving up three runs in 17 2/3 innings with 19 strikeouts and an average of 20.5 DraftKings points per outing. He had a career-high nine strikeouts in his last start on his way to 26.8 DraftKings points against the Twins.

The Angels lead the majors in K% this season and rank second over the last two weeks. They also have the highest K% against lefties on the year, so it could be a spot where Walter continues his impressive audition. The Astros’ rotation will potentially be crowded when everyone gets healthy, so he’ll need to continue to impress to have a spot there long term. He’s risky since he’s unproven, but he could be the key to unlocking the slate if he delivers a big start at low ownership in Anaheim.

If you’re craving more MLB DFS or betting tools, be sure to check out one of our most powerful tools on the site—PlateIQ.

MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks

Notable Stack

With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.

Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.

The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Player Model, when generated by projected points using the tournament model, belongs to the Arizona Diamondbacks:

With great hitting weather at Coors Field and a favorable matchup, the Diamondbacks are an obvious but probably productive stack on Saturday. On Friday, they started the series with 14 runs on 21 hits with four home runs. They have an even better matchup on Saturday against Carson Palmquist ($5,300). The lefty has allowed up 24 runs in his 26 2/3 innings in the majors, allowing a 39.1% hard-hit rate and 14.1% barrel rate. Opponents have a .497 wOBA against him in his three starts at Coors.

Ketel Marte ($6,200) went yard and had 34 fantasy points on Friday night, and he has 13 hits and an average of 9.8 DraftKings points per game over his last 10 contests. Corbin Carroll ($6,300) missed that game but could return Saturday, and he’ll have a high ceiling if he does. He isn’t in the stack above, though, due to his bruised hand from a hit-by-pitch on Wednesday.

Eugenio Suarez ($5,200) belted two homers and had 38 DraftKings points Friday and has averaged an impressive 13.9 DraftKings points over his last 10. Geraldo Perdomo ($5,000) and Lourdes Gurriel Jr. ($4,500) are great options as well.

Not interested in messing around with optimizer settings? No worries- you can use our MLB DFS Simulations and let it find the best way to control your stacks, exposure, correlations, and more!

Click here to find out how SimLabs can elevate your MLB DFS game and watch the video below.

Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks

One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.

In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.

For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.

Shohei Ohani 1B/OF ($6,600) Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Washington Nationals (Jake Irvin)

Ohtani has the second-highest median projection in the aggregate projections on Saturday night behind only Marte at Coors Field. Ohtani is at home taking on the Nats and Jake Irvin, which should put him in a good spot to succeed.

While he has been working his way back to the mound, he has continued to deliver at the plate as well. He is 9-for-25 (.360) over his last seven games, with a pair of home runs, and he is hitting .295 with 18 homers in his 46 games since May 1. He has been less aggressive stealing bases but still brings plenty of power potential to be a good offensive piece to build around.

On Saturday, Ohtani gets a good matchup against Irvin, who has surrendered 14 homers in his 15 starts this season. Left-handed hitters like Ohtani have hit 10 of the 14 homers he has allowed this season and have a healthy .354 wOBA. Here’s how Ohtani and the rest of the Dodgers stack up against Irvin in our PlateIQ tool, which I prefer to use in dark mode:


Michael Toglia 1B ($3,300) Colorado Rockies vs. Arizona Diamondbacks (Merrill Kelly)

The highest Projected Plus/Minus of all non-Diamondbacks hitters on Saturday’s slate comes from the other side of that matchup at Coors Field. Toglia has had an up-and-down season and was sent down to the minors at the start of June.

He was hitting only .194 in his 54 games at that point but did have six home runs. His 39.1% K% was brutal, though, so the Rockies decided to give him a stint in Albuquerque with the Isotopes. He hit .273 with three homers and a 29.4% K% in his 11 games in the minors before rejoining the Rockies last week. Since then, Toglia has hit safely in all but one of his games, going 6-for-20 (.300) with three home runs and still a 27.3% K%.

Toglia is still very much a boom-or-bust fantasy play, but with so much power potential, he’s worth a shot as an elite value play at only $3,300 in such a homer-friendly environment on Saturday night.


Jac Caglianone OF ($3,000) Kansas City Royals vs. San Deigo Padres (Dylan Cease)

Caglianone has made a strong first impression since being called up and brings lots of extra-base potential at just $3,000. The top prospect hit his first two major league home runs on Thursday and went 1-for-4 with a double on Friday.

In his last 10 games, Caglianone is hitting .289 (11-for-38) with a .348 wOBA and a 51.7% hard-hit rate. The 22-year-old lefty seems to be settling in at the majors after tearing up the minors this year with a .322 batting average, 15 homers, and a .428 wOBA in 50 games split between Double-A and Triple-A.

For a play at just $3,000, he brings plenty of power upside and can help stretch your salary to stack more of the Diamondbacks or another team you think is set up for success.

Interested in more MLB action? Check out the pick’ems on Underdog Fantasy with Underdog promo code LABS.

About the Author

Zach Thompson writes NBA, MLB, NFL, golf and soccer content for Fantasy Labs. Zach's fantasy experience dates all the way back to high school when he would manually tabulate fantasy football scores using Tuesday morning's newspaper. Even though he was raised on the island of Guam on the opposite side of the world, Zach is a hardcore Boston sports fan who loves playing fantasy sports in almost any format. He's always in search of a great bargain play and keeps a close eye out for rising talent that can provide leverage. Zach joined the FantasyLabs team in 2022 and is also a contributor for DraftKings Network.