The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Carlos Rodon ($10,600) New York Yankees (-169) at Boston Red Sox
Of the eight starting pitchers taking the mound on Saturday night, Rodon has the highest ceiling, median, and floor projection in the FantasyLabs projections. He also has the highest ceiling projection from THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders.
Rodon has the highest strikeout prediction, and the Red Sox have the second-lowest implied team total on the slate as they face the veteran lefty.
Rodon is in his 11th season in the majors and has gotten off to a great start, going 8-4 in 14 starts with a 2.87 ERA, 3.28 FIP, and 0.94 WHIP. He has a 31% K% and 10.95 K/9, which would both be his highest marks in several years. He has held opponents to zero or one run in seven of his last 10 starts with at least eight strikeouts in six of those outings.
In his last start, Rodon did get knocked around by the Red Sox in New York last Sunday, giving up five runs in five innings. However, the Red Sox have the fourth-highest K% in the majors on the season and the second-highest over the last two weeks. Even if he gives up a few runs, he should be in a good spot to compensate with strikeouts.
He isn’t low risk due to the tough matchup, but he’s still a great stud to build around Saturday night.
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MLB DFS Value Pick
Tanner Bibee ($7,500) Cleveland Guardians (+110) at Seattle Mariners
Bibee has the highest Projected Plus/Minus of Saturday night’s pitchers in both the FantasyLabs and THE BAT X projections. Bibee and the Guardians are slight underdogs in Seattle, but his salary is very low compared to projections and expectations. He’s also especially affordable on DraftKings, where he has a 95% Bargain Rating, indicating he costs more of the salary cap on other sites.
While he hasn’t been incredible, Bibee has been very solid this season, with a 3.81 ERA, 4.83 FIP, and 7.4 K/9. The 26-year-old righty’s strikeout rate has dipped from 26.3% last year to just 19.9% this year, but recently, his strikeouts have been trending up overall. He has had at least six strikeouts in four straight starts, and his K% has climbed back to 27.6% in those four matchups.
Bibee has earned over 11 fantasy points in each of those four outings and in eight of his last nine. During that run, his best start was in Detroit, where he held the Tigers to three hits in seven shutout innings, with eight strikeouts for 33.4 fantasy points. In each of his last two starts, he has pitched into the seventh inning in tough matchups against the Yankees and Astros.
On Saturday, he’ll face the Mariners, who have plenty of potential pop but also strike out a lot. It’s not an ideal matchup for him on the road, but of the limited value options, he brings the most potential upside and makes sense as a salary saver under $8,000.
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MLB DFS GPP Pick
George Kirby ($8,800) Seattle Mariners (-132) vs. Cleveland Guardians
Kirby is a boom-or-bust play with a very high ceiling but also high risk as he takes on the Guardians. Kirby is a true ace when he’s at his best and has been excellent over the last few seasons. He has the highest median and floor projection in THE BAT X projections and the second-highest median and ceiling projection behind only Rodon in the FantasyLabs projections.
After a shoulder injury delayed the start of his season, the 27-year-old pitcher went 0-3 in his first three starts, allowing 13 runs on 21 hits in 13 2/3 innings with only 11 strikeouts. In his last start, though, he showed huge improvement by going seven innings against the Angels and giving up just two runs on two hits with a career-high 14 strikeouts. Kirby earned a massive 42.6 DraftKings points in that outing after earning just 10.7 DraftKings points in his first three starts combined.
Is Kirby back to ace form? If so, he’s a total steal at this price, but if he needs more time to return, he could be a total bust based on how hittable he was right after coming off the IL. The Guardians are a mostly neutral matchup, but over the last 30 days, they have scored the fifth-fewest runs and have the eight-highest K% in the MLB.
He’s risky, but if he’s right, Kirby can be the top arm on the board, and that ceiling makes him worth taking a shot on in GPPs.
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MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Player Model, when generated by projected points using the tournament model, belongs to the Arizona Diamondbacks:
The top five in the Diamondbacks order are a very nice stack at home against the Padres and righty Ryan Bergert ($6,000). Bergert has made two major-league starts, allowing two runs on seven hits across 10 1/3 innings since moving from the bullpen. He only has eight strikeouts in 14 1/3 innings this year, with a 1.26 ERA. That ERA isn’t backed up by his 3.89 xERA and 5.55 xFIP, which indicate he could be due for some regression.
The Diamondbacks scored five runs in their win to open the series and have won four straight and eight of their last 11. In their last 12 games, they rank fourth in the majors in runs and second in wOBA and home runs. Corbin Carroll ($5,800) leads the way with 11.7 DraftKings points per game over his last 12 games, with four homers and two stolen bases. Ketel Marte ($5,600) has averaged 10.9 DraftKings points over that span and also has four homers in those 12 games.
Josh Naylor ($4,700) homered on Friday and has 10+ DraftKings points in four straight. You can supplement the stack of Snakes listed above with Alek Thomas ($2,600) or Gabriel Moreno ($3,200) if you need cheaper plays.
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Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Aaron Judge OF ($6,600) New York Yankees at Boston Red Sox (Hunter Dobbins)
Judge took Dobbins deep last Sunday after the Red Sox rookie made some questionable comments about the Yankees. While Dobbins and the Sox did get a big win, Judge got some revenge with another long home run. He did the same against Garrett Crochet on Friday night in the ninth to tie the game before the Red Sox walked off winners in the 10th.
Judge has been otherworldly with his production across the board this season. He is hitting .390 with 26 homers, a 520 wOBA, and a .390 ISO. He has the most barrels per plate appearance in the majors and the second-highest average exit velocity at 95.5 miles per hour.
In his last 19 games, Judge has smashed 10 home runs with a 54.5% hard-hit rate and 25% barrel rate. If you can afford to pay up for him, he’s the premier bat on just about every slate. He and the rest of the Yankees have a good matchup against Dobbins at Fenway, and here’s how they look in our PlateIQ tool, which I prefer to use in dark mode:
Heliot Ramos OF ($4,300) San Francisco Giants at Los Angeles Dodgers (Clayton Kershaw)
Ramos has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus of all hitters on the slate on Saturday, behind only his teammate Willy Adames ($4,000). Both are strong plays against lefty Clayton Kershaw. Ramos is a great mid-range target in the outfield who can fit into lots of different roster builds at just $4,300.
The 25-year-old Ramos is hitting an impressive .294 so far this season, with 11 homers and a .366 wOBA. He’s added five stolen bases and has a 44.9% hard-hit rate and 12.2% barrel rate. He is 9-for-27 (.333) over his last seven games.
Against lefties this year, Ramos is hitting .273 with a .355 wOBA, but last year, he showcased even more upside against southpaws, with a .370 batting average and .490 wOBA in that split.
Casey Schmitt 1B/3B ($2,700) San Francisco Giants at Los Angeles Dodgers (Clayton Kershaw)
Another affordable Giant who ranks very well in the aggregate projections is Casey Schmitt, who has been getting plenty of playing time at 3B. Schmitt is a 26-year-old righty who can play a variety of positions and is eligible at both corner infield positions. Schmitt has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus at each position and brings good upside from the middle third of the Giants’ order against Kershaw.
Schmitt homered on Friday in the series opener against the Dodgers to extend his hitting streak to four straight games. In that short span, he is 6-for-15 (.400) with three walks, two homers, and a 70% hard-hit rate.
Against lefties this season, Schmitt is hitting .273 with a .313 wOBA. Both his homers have come on the road, and he brings more upside in Los Angeles against Kershaw than most of the other options under $3,000.
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