The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Luis Castillo ($8,600) Seattle Mariners (-225) vs. Miami Marlins
Of the 10 players taking the mound this Saturday night, Castillo has the highest median, ceiling, and floor projections in the FantasyLabs projections, and he also has the highest Projected Plus/Minus of the scheduled starters.
According to our Vegas Dashboard, the Mariners are the second-heaviest favorite on the five-game night slate, and Castillo’s opponents, the Marlins, are tied for the lowest implied run total.
Castillo will be making his sixth start of the season after going 2-2 with a 4.44 ERA, 4.24 FIP, 1.59 WHIP, and 7.9 K/9. While his numbers overall are underwhelming, he has earned at least 11 DraftKings points in four of his five starts this season.
He got a win in his last outing despite giving up 10 hits on the road in Toronto, but he has been better in his last few starts at home at pitcher-friendly T-Mobile Park. At home, he has a 2.12 ERA and 4.03 FIP. He earned a season-high 21.6 DraftKings points in a home start against the Tigers early in April and followed that up with 19.1 DraftKings points against the Astros in his next home start.
On Saturday, he gets a good home matchup against the Marlins, who rank just below average in most offensive categories. They have a 98 team wRC+, which bears out the just below-average status, but they do rank in the top 10 in K%, which sets Castillo up as a good play on Saturday night.
Be sure to check out all the pick’ems Sleeper has to offer with Sleeper promo code FL55.
MLB DFS Value Pick
Grant Holmes ($6,200) Atlanta Braves (-100) at Arizona Diamondbacks
Holmes has the fourth-highest Projected Plus/Minus of the starting pitchers on the slate and is a great bargain on DraftKings, where he has a 98% Bargain Rating. He has exceeded salary-based expectations in each of his last three outings and helped the Braves bridge the gap until Spencer Strider can return from his latest injury.
Holmes has struggled with control this season but still earned over 16 DraftKings points in three straight starts. He was able to stretch out and go deeper into each of his last two starts after pitching under five innings in his first three starts of the year. In those two most recent starts, he beat the Blue Jays and Twins, giving up a total of four runs in 13 1/3 innings with 11 strikeouts in those two starts. He earned 20.9 fantasy points against the Jays and followed that up with 23.4 fantasy points against the Twins.
He’ll be in a tough matchup against the Diamondbacks, but Arizona has dropped three straight and five of their last seven. Over the last week, they have scored 3.7 runs per game but are only hitting .197 as a team with a .290 wOBA, which is the sixth-lowest team wOBA over the last week.
Pitching at Chase Field against the Diamondbacks isn’t an ideal environment, but Holmes is so cheap that he should be one of the best values on a limited slate if he can continue his recent success.
Now available: our MLB DFS SimLabs Lineup Generator that creates advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.
MLB DFS GPP Pick
Dylan Cease ($9,000) San Diego Padres (-155) vs. Tampa Bay Rays
The Padres host the Rays in one of Saturday night’s interleague contests, and Dylan Cease is worth a look in GPP contests since his strikeout potential stands out and gives him a high ceiling. He should have relatively low ownership and be a good source of leverage in this matchup.
He matches the most Pro Trends on the board and has the highest strikeout prediction. In four of his five starts this season, Cease has earned at least 14 DraftKings points with at least six strikeouts in each of those four strong outings. In his one start that he didn’t have six strikeouts, he was shelled by the Athletics at Sutter Health Park, giving up nine runs in four innings.
After that, the veteran bounced back with two strong no-decisions, earning 16 fantasy points against the Cubs and 15.1 fantasy points against the Astros with exactly six punchouts in each performance.
On the season, he has an ugly 6.04 ERA, which may scare people off him as the most expensive pitcher on the slate. However, he still has a 10.7 K/9, and his 2.63 FIP shows that some of his results have been the result of bad luck.
The Rays rank in the middle of the pack in most offensive categories this season, with a slightly above-average team batting average but below-average power numbers. Cease has had strong enough home splits since being traded to the Padres, so expect him to continue his rebound after that rough outing. He hasn’t been as lights out as his fantasy managers would have liked this season, but his strikeout rate has been strong enough to make him a strong GPP option.
If you’re craving more MLB DFS or betting tools, be sure to check out one of our most powerful tools on the site—PlateIQ.
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Player Model when generated by projected points using the tournament model belongs to the Los Angeles Dodgers:
The Dodgers were shut out on Friday by Paul Skenes and the Pirates, but the projections like them to bounce back in a big way at home against Mitch Keller ($7,000). Keller has a 4.18 ERA, 3.92 FIP, and 1.36 WHIP this season, but he only has a 6.4 K/9 rate and has relied on working around lots of contact. That can be a recipe for disaster in a matchup against a tough lineup like the Dodgers in what should be an offense-friendly environment at Chavez Ravine.
Keller’s splits make it obvious which way to lean in this stack. He has held righties to a .154 average and .213 wOBA, but he has let lefties hit .306 with two homers and a .356 wOBA in the early going this season, keeping with the overall splits during his career. Shohei Ohtani ($6,400) is expensive but always brings a very high ceiling. He has the highest median and ceiling projections on the slate with the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus.
Freddie Freeman ($5,400) and switch-hitting Tommy Edman ($4,200) also bring great upside from that side of the split. Edman averaged 7.5 DraftKings points over the last 10 games, while Freeman averaged 8.4 DraftKings points per game in his last 10.
Not interested in messing around with optimizer settings? No worries, you can use our MLB DFS Simulations and let it find the best way to control your stacks, exposure, correlations, and more!
Click here to find out how SimLabs can elevate your MLB DFS game and watch the video below.
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Julio Rodriguez OF ($5,300) Seattle Mariners vs. Miami Marlins (Connor Gillispie)
In the aggregate projections, Rodriguez has the third-highest median, ceiling, and floor projections of all hitters and the highest of all outfielders under $6,000. Rodriguez and the Mariners went 6-3 on their recent road trip but lost the first game of this series against the Marlins. They’ll be looking to bounce back against Gillispie, who has allowed 12 runs in 10 innings over his last two starts.
Rodriguez is hitting only .196 on the season after going 0-for-3 with a walk on Friday night. He had his five-game hitting streak snapped in that game but he still has a solid 48.6% hard-hit rate and a .342 xwOBA that shows he has been making strong contact this season. He has three home runs and five stolen bases, averaging 8.2 fantasy points per game on the year.
Julio has a good matchup against Gillispie, who has let righties hit .304 with a .366 wOBA. Here’s how the Mariners stack up in our PlateIQ tool, which I think looks especially sharp in dark mode:
Alex Verdugo OF ($3,300) Atlanta Braves vs. Arizona Diamondbacks (Merrill Kelly)
Verdugo has been with the Braves for a week, typically batting leadoff against right-handed starting pitchers like Kelly. He has the highest Projected Plus/Minus of all batters on Saturday’s slate.
Since joining the lineup, he is 7-for-27 (.259) with four doubles, and he has produced 7.8 DraftKings points per game despite not having a home run or stolen base yet. In his minor league ramp up, Verdugo went 6-for-29 (.207) with two home runs and a stolen base over the span of nine games in Triple-A.
He has the upside to produce a big game with either power or speed, and if he’s in the leadoff spot, he’ll be a great value option at just over $3,000 on Saturday.
Agustin Ramirez C ($2,700) Miami Marlins at Seattle Mariners (Luis Castillo)
Ramirez was ranked as the No. 4 prospect in Miami’s system coming into the season by MLB Pipeline. He joined the Marlins last July as the main prospect in the Jazz Chisholm trade. Ramirez has always had great exit velocities and a huge power upside, but he also has had a high strikeout rate and inconsistent batting average.
In Triple-A this season, he hit .254 with three home runs, five stolen bases, and a .348 wOBA. He had a 44.4% hard-hit rate before getting called up, but he has been even better since joining the Marlins on Monday.
In each of his three games with the Fish, Ramirez has picked up multiple hits, going 7-for-10 (.700) with four doubles, a home run, and a 50% hard-hit rate. Ramirez has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus of all catchers and is a great bargain way to fill a sometimes tricky lineup spot behind the plate.
Interested in more MLB action? Check out the pick’ems on Underdog Fantasy with Underdog promo code LABS.
