The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Jacob deGrom ($10,300) Texas Rangers (-199) at Los Angeles Angels
Jacob deGrom’s career resurgence has lasted far longer than seemed possible, as he’s maintained a 2.28 ERA this season with July nearly in the books. Coupled with his solid but unspectacular 26.9% strikeout rate, that’s been good enough for an average points per game of just over 21 on DraftKings.
With the Rangers holding on to the last wild card spot in the AL, there’s no reason for them to ease off of deGrom at any point in the near future. He’ll likely continue to operate with the long leash that’s allowed him to average six innings per start, making up somewhat for the diminished strikeout rate.
We know what we’re getting from him at this point in the season, and with the Angels sporting an almost precisely league-average wRC+ of 99 against right-handed pitching, there’s no reason to expect that to change tonight. They do strike out at the second-highest rate in the majors, which also boosts his upside a bit.
He sports a narrow lead in median, ceiling, and Pts/Sal projections on the slate, making him a solid all-around option.
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MLB DFS Value Pick
Chase Burns ($7,500) Cincinnati Reds (+129) vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
The top three Pts/Sal options on the slate all have five-figure price tags on Monday, making this a difficult slate for pitching. While it’s much more comfortable to roster two of those arms, doing so makes it nearly impossible to find any upside with your hitters.
Which is where Burns comes in. The Reds’ rookie was the #2 overall pick in last year’s MLB draft and has taken a fast track to the big leagues. So far it’s been a mixed bag. His 35% striking rate is a sign of his elite stuff, and his fastball is averaging over 98 MPH. However, his 6.65 ERA suggests he could’ve used a bit more seasoning at the AAA level.
That makes him a scary click tonight against the Dodgers, one of the best offenses in baseball. On the bright side, his underlying metrics point to an ERA somewhere in the threes, so there’s a chance he realizes some of that positive regression tonight.
He’s a boom-or-bust option tonight, but with the lack of cheap pitchers to choose from, it’s a risk worth taking.
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MLB DFS GPP Pick
Framber Valdez ($10,700) Houston Astros (-257) vs. Washington Nationals
We’ve got Valdez’s projections lagging just slightly behind deGrom’s, but with a price tag $400 more expensive. That should logically lead to lower ownership for the lefty tonight, which in turn makes him a solid GPP pivot.
Of course, there’s no guarantee it works out that way. He has the best Vegas Data of any pitcher, with the Astros as heavy favorites and Washington implied for a slate-low 3.0 runs. If the field leans into those numbers, Valdez could be the more popular option.
He has a similar profile to deGrom, with a 24.9% strikeout rate and a 2.68 ERA on the season. The matchup with Washington is arguably better, though, as their wRC+ against lefties is about 10% worse than the Angels against righties.
Be sure to keep an eye on our updated ownership projections as we approach lock tonight. It’s an extremely close call between Valdez and deGrom, so whoever checks in as the less popular option is probably the GPP play.
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MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Player Model when generated by rating using an aggregate projection set belongs to the Los Angeles Dodgers:
While I made the case for Chase Burns above, our models like the opposing Dodgers as the top stack on the slate.
As I alluded to in the Burns discussion, his elevated ERA is a big reason why. The Dodgers are implied for 5.1 runs on the slate, one of the best marks on the board. Even if they have some difficulty against Burns, they’ll still get to face the Reds’ bullpen for a chunk of the game.
And they’ll get to do it in Cincinnati, the best home run park in baseball. They could easily do enough damage against the bullpen for both them and Burns to score reasonably well — though I wouldn’t recommend that as a stack for obvious reasons.
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Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Cal Raleigh C ($6,300) Seattle Mariners at Athletics (JP Sears)
Despite playing in the toughest park for offense in baseball, breakout star Cal Raleigh leads the majors with 41 home runs on the season. There’s never a bad time to roster “The Big Dumper,” but tonight is an especially good one.
The switch-hitting Raleigh is even better batting from the right side, with an absurd .465 ISO that pops in PlateIQ:
Plus, tonight’s game is at Sutter Health Field in Sacramento, the temporary home of the A’s. That park has boosted home runs by about 25% compared to T-Mobile Park and overall scoring by 38%.
Nick Kurtz 1B ($5,400) Athletics vs. Seattle Mariners (Luis Castillo)
I’m also interested in the other side of this matchup in Sacramento, in large part thanks to the pitching matchup. No pitcher has benefited from home games at T-Mobile more than Luis Castillo ($9,000), whose 3.30 overall ERA is split between 2.29 at home and 4.74 on the road.
As mentioned above, this isn’t a typical road game, with the second-best Park Factor for hitters in baseball. That could be bad news for Castillo, especially against the A’s lefty bats. He’s allowed left-handers to hit .277, far worse than the .218 given up to righties.
Which is where Kurtz comes in. He and the other A’s lefties would make an excellent mini-stack tonight.
Josh Smith 1B/3B ($3,400) Texas Rangers at Los Angeles Angels (Jack Kochanowicz)
Smith is Monday’s winner of the “underpriced leadoff hitter” game, as his Rangers travel to Los Angeles. They have a 5.1-run implied total — identical to the Dodgers — but with a leadoff hitter more than $1,000 cheaper.
While Smith is obviously no Mookie Betts, it’s still a pretty sharp distinction given their identical totals and spot in their respective lineups. With Smith also eligible at multiple positions, he’s a great way to save salary on a slate where pricing is tight.
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Pictured: Jacob deGrom
Photo Credit: Imagn
