The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Garrett Crochet ($11,500) Boston Red Sox (-174) at Houston Astros
The Red Sox have certainly got their money’s worth in the Garrett Crochet trade. The prized offseason acquisition has a 2.24 ERA, a 31% strikeout rate, and has turned the AL Cy Young race into a relatively close one with defending winner Tarik Skubal.
The question on Monday is whether DFS players will also get any value from Crochet, with his price tag rising to a massive $11,500. Crochet has a less than ideal matchup with the Astros, a top-three team against southpaws in terms of wRC+ that strikes out at a bottom-five rate.
That’s concerning for Crochet since so much of his production relies on punch-outs. He’s averaging around 6.5 innings per start, which is solid, but not enough to pay off his salary without a reasonable number of strikeouts.
He leads our median and ceiling projections but is a middling option in terms of Pts/Sal. That makes him a solid option if you have the salary but a reasonable fade if his massive ownership projection holds through the afternoon.
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MLB DFS Value Pick
Elvis Peguero ($4,000) Chicago White Sox (+121) vs. Detroit Tigers
Normally I wouldn’t have any interest in playing (or discussing) a minimum-priced opener for DFS reasons, but the huge salary on Crochet makes things different today.
One way to comfortably spend up for Crochet is by rostering Peguero, whom the White Sox claimed on waivers from Milwaukee earlier in August. Peguero has spent most of 2025 in AAA, making six relief appearances in the majors with a 4.91 ERA.
While that’s not great, all we really need from Peguero is a solid couple of innings. Hypothetically, two strikeouts in a scoreless two-inning performance would be worth seven or eight DraftKings points. If viewed as a block with Crochet, who could easily go for 30, that’s nearly 40 points for $15,500 in salary.
That’s how I’m approaching Peguero today, as a complement to Crochet. If the latter outperforms the rest of the field by a large margin — a reasonable possibility — Peguero’s value might be what makes the lineup work.
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MLB DFS GPP Pick
Chris Paddack ($6,800) Detroit Tigers (-146) at Chicago White Sox
Detroit traded for Paddack at the deadline, arguably the most impactful trade they made during an overall quiet trade season. The intention seemed to be to add a back-of-the-rotation innings eater, with Detroit’s pitching depth impacted by injuries.
So far he’s filled that role nicely for the Tigers, allowing five runs with as many strikeouts across ten innings. Nothing special, but serviceable numbers in line with his mid-fours ERA. Those two appearances came against his former team, the Twins (who are league-average against righties) and the best offense in baseball against right-handed pitching, the Diamondbacks.
He gets a much easier matchup on Monday, leading to my interest in him for DFS purposes. Chicago ranks 28th in wRC+ against righties, with an above-average strikeout rate. At Paddack’s price tag five or six innings of two-run ball is more than enough, and that seems well within reach given the matchup.
He could also be paired with Crochet to save salary or with one of the other slightly cheaper aces for a more contrarian lineup build.
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MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Player Model when generated by rating using an aggregate projection set belongs to the St. Louis Cardinals:
With 10 teams on the slate, we’ve got no shortage of solid stacking options. Only one of those teams is facing the Rockies, though, which makes the Cardinals stand out.
Well, that and their 5.2-run implied total, which is tied with the A’s and Yankees for best on the slate despite this game being in St. Louis and not at Coors Field. Those teams both cost much more for their first five hitters than the Cardinals’ $20,000, making St. Louis a much better value.
The matchup with Colorado’s Anthony Molina ($5,000) explains much of the optimism. Molina has a 9.22 ERA through six appearances (one start) in 2025, making him an excellent opponent to target.
St. Louis will be popular thanks to the obvious value but could also be well worth it.
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Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Caleb Durbin 3B ($3,400) Milwaukee Brewers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates (Andrew Heaney)
With a 5.1-run total, the Brewers trail just behind the leaders of the day in terms of their implied total. That makes Durbin a very strong value from the leadoff spot in their lineup, with just a $3,400 salary.
What really drew me to Durbin, though, is his solid numbers against lefties. While he doesn’t hit for much power, he has a .304 average this season against southpaws, with his wOBA showing the effects in PlateIQ:
The lack of power limits his ceiling a bit, but he’s an excellent median/floor option.
Trent Grishman OF ($4,200) New York Yankees vs. Minnesota Twins (Zebby Matthews)
I mentioned the Yankees’ solid team total above as making them a potential stacking option. Even if you can’t get there on the full stack for salary reasons, Grisham is a solid play. Their leadoff hitter continues to go overlooked and underpriced, with an .813 OPS and 20 home runs on the season.
The short porch in right field at Yankee Stadium is especially friendly to left-handed bats, making this home game an especially strong time to play Grisham. Plus, hitting in front of Aaron Judge ($6,400) raises his chances of scoring anytime he gets on base, which is always a plus.
Nick Kurtz 1B ($6,200) Athletics at Tampa Bay Rays (Ryan Pepiot)
The A’s are another stack that’s likely to go overlooked on Monday, with none of their batters projecting for more than 4% ownership. The high-water mark is Kurtz at 3.94%, but that still makes him an exceedingly contrarian option.
Kurtz and the A’s have a team total over five in Tampa Bay tonight, and a lot of that is due to Kurtz. He’s a -10000 favorite to win AL Rookie of the Year, hitting .305 with 23 home runs through 79 games. There’s never a bad time to play the slugging first baseman, but it’s an especially good time when his ownership is this low.
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Pictured: Garrett Crochet
Photo Credit: Imagn
