The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Yoshinobu Yamamoto (R) $9,500 Los Angeles Dodgers (-301) vs. Miami Marlins
Now in his third season in the MLB, Yoshinobu Yamamoto continues to perform as one of the best pitchers in baseball, with his ERA steadily declining year-over-year (at least based on his first five starts this season.) He’s allowed just nine runs through 32.2 innings, good for a 2.48 ERA.
What hasn’t been there this season is the strikeouts. His K% has dropped to just 22.8%, a middling mark that makes paying up for him in DFS feel risky. That decline also explains his ERA predictors coming in well over his actual ERA, since those tend to heavily weight strikeouts. However, there’s room for optimism on that front.
Yamamoto struck out more than 29% of hitters he faced last season, with a 12.6% swinging strike rate. This year, he’s improved the swinging strike rate to 13.2%, which suggests he’s been pretty unlucky. While the Marlins don’t strike out much, some positive regression is bound to hit for Yamamoto soon.
Miami’s 3.2-run total is the lowest on the slate, and Yamamoto leads all pitchers in median, ceiling, and Pts/Sal projection. He’s a borderline must-play in all contest types.
MLB DFS Value Pick
Dustin May (R) $6,300 St. Louis Cardinals (+111) at Pittsburgh Pirates
The interesting thing about Monday’s slate is that the three leaders in Pts/Sal projection are also the three most expensive pitchers. We also have a fairly expensive top stack, and need to save money somewhere in order to be able to roster them. There’s not any truly obvious choices here, which leads us to May.
The former Dodger has a 5.84 ERA in his first (full) season with the Cardinals, but there’s an argyment he May (pin intended) have been a little unlucky to start the season. His xERA is 4.35, and his FIP, xFIP, and SIERA are all right around 4.00. Still not great numbers, but acceptable ones at his price tag.
He’s facing a Pirates team with slightly below-average offensive numbers overall, in a somewhat pitcher-friendly park. Neither of those statement are ringing endorsements, but that’s the best you can hope for when paying $6,300 for a pitcher.
While I obviously prefer getting two of the stronger arms in my lineups when I can, I’ll have a decent amount of May where I need to save salary.
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MLB DFS GPP Pick
Dylan Cease (R) $10,000 Toronto Blue Jays (-140) vs. Boston Red Sox
Cease trails only Yamamoto in median, ceiling, and Pts/Sal projections, while leading all pitchers in projected ownership. That’s obviously not ideal for GPPs, but my intuition is lineups with both him and another high-priced arm won’t be especially popular. Cease has an absurd 39.6% strikeout rate this season which is probably unsustainable, but his 17% swinging strike rate points to mid-30s being well within reach. Plus, he’s facing a Red Sox team in turmoil that just fired most of their coaches, making this a plus-spot for him.
Max Fried (L) $9,700 New York Yankees (-172) at Texas Rangers
Fried is the third expensive arm that tops the Pts/Sal projection, as he’s tied with Cease for second place. He isn’t the strikeout machine that Cease is, but might look like it in this matchup. The Rangers strike out at an absurd 29.7% rate against lefties, by far the worst rate in the majors. They also have just a 69 wRC+ against them, making this an elite matchup for Fried.
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Player Model when generated by rating using our tournament model belongs to the Los Angeles Dodgers:
The Dodgers are the aforementioned expensive stack, and for good reason. Their 5.5-run total is nearly a full run higher than any other team on the board, as they host the Marlins in the late game.
The Dodgers consistently have totals like this regardless of the opposing pitcher. With that said, Chris Paddack ($5,700) comes into the game with a 6.38 ERA, so he certainly doesn’t give us any reason to avoid hitters against him.
The real question here is strategy, since we can’t roster two of the three strong pitchers with the full Dodgers stack. Is it more likely that a team other than the Dodgers makes the optimal lineup, or that a pitcher other than Fried/Cease/Yamamoto? My hunch is it’s the former, since we have some other offenses in good spots.
That means I won’t be full stacking Los Angeles tonight, but grabbing some one offs where I can fit them is still a big part of my plans.
Not interested in messing around with optimizer settings? No worries, you can use our MLB DFS Simulations and let it find the best way to control your stacks, exposure, correlations, and more!
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Rob Refsnyder OF ($2,700) Seattle Mariners at Minnesota Twins (Connor Prielipp)
One of those cheaper teams with a chance to beat out the Dodgers for the top spot is the Mariners. Their stack isn’t especially cheap overall, but the presence of a sub-$3,000 leadoff hitter brings the average price down considerably.
Plus, that leadoff hitter has exceptional numbers against lefties, as I noticed in PlateIQ:
Seattle as a team has actually hit right-handed pitching better this season, but there’s four hitters with a strong track record against southpaws, so four-batter Mariners stacks are my favorite starting point for lineups tonight.
Trent Grisham OF ($3,900) New York Yankees at Texas Rangers (Jon Leiter)
While not to the extent of the Mariners, the Yankees are another team who is somewhat affordable to stack thanks to a cheap option at the top of the lineup. That would be Grisham, who gets the pleasure of hitting in front of all the Yankees’ stars.
Against righties, he actually has stronger numbers than anyone else on New York outside of Aaron Judge ($6,500), making him a solid value. I like stacking the top of the Yankees lineup in theory, but the price point means I’ll likely have more of Grisham one-offs than anything else.
Zach Neto SS ($5,500) Los Angeles Angels at Chicago White Sox (Anthony Kay)
The Angels are another team taking on a beatable southpaw in the White Sox Anthony Kay ($6,000), who comes into the game with a 5.57 ERA and 7.72 xERA while splitting time between the rotation and the bullpen.
Like Seattle, they don’t have great overall numbers against lefties, but specific hitters are on the strong side of their platoon splits. Primarily Neto, who has a career .871 OPS against lefties compared to just .732 against right-handed pitching. While it’s expensive, mini-stacks of Neto, Jo Adell ($4,500) and Mike Trout ($6,000) have a massive ceiling while being fairly contrarian, so I want some exposure to the other Los Angeles team as a pivot from the chalky Dodgers.
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Pictured: Tarik Skubal
Photo Credit: Imagn
