The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Dylan Cease (R) $9,800 Toronto Blue Jays (-125) at Los Angeles Angels
Monday’s slate gives us one of the most obvious stud pitcher options in a long time. Toronto’s prize free-agent signee comes into the game with elite numbers, a 1.74 ERA and 36% strikeout rate through his first 20 or so innings with his new team. While those numbers are somewhat unsustainable, his underlying data at least mildly supports the improvements he’s made.
His fastball velocity is up to 97.9 MPH so far, more than a MPH over his career average. His swinging-strike rate is up more than two percent, and all of his underlying ERA numbers have dipped as well. While none of those numbers have improved quite enough to justify his elite production, they’re close, and Dylan Cease had been somewhat unlucky over the past couple of seasons.
The question today is more whether he can justify his price tag, given the extremely expensive top stack that most of us will want to roster. Even with the cheapest possible players at every other position, there’s no way to fit Cease and the best stack, so we have to make a trade-off somewhere. I prefer spending up on bats today, but that dynamic means Cease will likely have lower ownership than we’d typically expect from the clear top pitcher on the board.
He has a fairly significant lead in both median and ceiling projections today, while coming in second in Pts/Sal projection.
MLB DFS Value Pick
Reid Detmers (L) ($7,200) Los Angeles Angels (+105) vs. Toronto Blue Jays
Reid Detmers may be a slight underdog in his own matchup against Cease, but from a value standpoint, he could be the better option. The 26-year-old has continued to make improvements year-over-year, and those have encouragingly continued even as he moves back to the rotation after operating as a reliever in 2025.
So far this season, the Angels lefty has a 3.57 ERA that probably should be about a run lower based on his ERA predictors, along with a very solid 27.7% strikeout rate and 13.6% swinging-strike rate. He’s also facing a Blue Jays team that has performed below expectations this season, with a slightly below-average wRC+ overall. I’m not sure how long that will continue, given the talent in Toronto, but their moderate 4-run implied total is manageable for what Detmers costs.
More importantly, we desperately need to save salary for bats tonight, and Detmers is a relatively low-risk path to doing so. Two pitchers around his price range would allow us to fit any hitters we want, which might be the key in GPPs tonight. He leads all pitchers in Pts/Sal projection.
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MLB DFS GPP Picks
Emerson Hancock (R) $8,500 Seattle Mariners (-162) vs. Athletics
Emerson Hancock is another young arm who has shown improvement this season, with a 2.28 ERA and 29.4% strikeout rate. Impressively, he has similar home and road numbers, which is rare for Mariners pitchers, since their home ballpark is by far the most favorable to pitchers in the league. They’re home tonight against an A’s team with bottom-10 numbers overall and one that plays home games in the second-best hitter’s park. That’s a big downgrade for the A’s and thus an upgrade for Hancock.
Justin Wrobleski (L) $7,300 Los Angeles Dodgers (-268) at Colorado Rockies
If Justin Wrobleski was facing the Rockies anywhere other than Coors Field, he’d be a screaming value tonight. Of course, that isn’t the situation, making him a high-risk option against Colorado. The Rockies lead the league in strikeout rate both overall and against lefties, with a bottom-five wRC+ to boot. Wrobleski doesn’t miss a lot of bats, which makes the park factors a little scary, but he might be able to punch out some Rockies, making him an interesting leverage play at his price point.
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Player Model when generated by rating using our tournament model belongs to the Los Angeles Dodgers:
The expensive stack mentioned above is, of course, the Dodgers, who are both the best offense in baseball by a wide margin and playing in the best hitter’s park tonight. On top of that, they’re taking on left-hander Jose Quintana ($5,700), which puts the Dodgers on the stronger side of their platoon splits.
The downside is they cost almost $6,000 per hitter on average, making it impossible to roster them without taking some big risks at pitcher and punting the other hitter spots. With their 7.3-run implied total, that might not matter, but it will if one of the more expensive pitchers has a big day.
One way to shave a ton of salary off is to omit Shohei Ohtani for a cheaper Dodgers bat further down the lineup. Number-eight hitter Miguel Rojas ($3,400) is considerably cheaper and has the best wOBA against lefties on the team (albeit with far less power than Ohtani). Plus, the reigning MVP is likely to take an early exit if this game gets out of hand, whereas hitters lower in the order aren’t.
Of course, it doesn’t have to be Ohtani you pivot from, but rostering Rojas or other cheaper options instead of one of the big names would make this stack more unique, as well as allowing you to roster safer pitchers.
Not interested in messing around with optimizer settings? No worries, you can use our MLB DFS Simulations and let it find the best way to control your stacks, exposure, correlations, and more!
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
JP Crawford SS ($2,200) Seattle Mariners vs. Athletics (J.T. Ginn)
Given the cost of the Dodgers stack, my primary focus in the other hitters section is to find cheap bats with any chance of production. One of those is JP Crawford, who seems to be hanging on to the leadoff spot in the Mariners lineup despite hitting .213 on the season.
He’s only $200 above the stone minimum salary and, on the plus side, has a solid .383 OBP on the season. With Seattle implied for 4.5 runs, just walking his way on base and being driven in is somewhat likely and, at $2,200, might be enough to get your Dodgers stacks over the top.
Ernie Clement 2B/3B ($2,500) Toronto Blue Jays at Los Angeles Angels (Reid Detmers)
Ernie Clement is yet another cheap hitter in a good lineup spot who also might go overlooked since he’s facing one of the slate’s more popular pitchers. With his multi-positional eligibility, he’s also easy to fit around any stacks or lineup configurations you might have.
Beyond that, Clement also stands out with very good numbers (over a surprisingly robust sample size) against southpaws in PlateIQ:
Pete Alonso 1B ($4,900) Baltimore Orioles at Kansas City Royals (Seth Lugo)
One way to get unique tonight is to fade the Dodgers, and the best options to do so come in Kansas City tonight. The game features excellent hitting weather that boosts home runs 24% and total runs 12%, plus an over/under of nine runs.
Pete Alonso is the best – and most powerful – hitter for the visiting team, making him the best one-off option if only rostering one bat from the game. However, this is really more about the team and game stacks in general, as most of the hitters are projecting well relative to their salaries.
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Pictured: Kyle Tucker
Photo Credit: Imagn
