The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Jacob Misiorowski (R) $12,500 Milwaukee Brewers (-190) at Atlanta Braves
Jacob Misiorowski gets the ball for the Brew Crew on Friday night as they start their big series in Atlanta. The two division leaders go head-to-head in what should be a great series, and Misiorowski is worth considering as a building block on Friday’s 12-game slate even though he comes at such a high price point. He has the top ceiling, median, and floor projections of all pitchers on the slate in the FantasyLabs Projections, and he also has the highest strikeout prediction and matches the most Pro Trends.
Misiorowski has been absolutely dominant lately with 30+ DraftKings points in 8 straight starts, averaging 36.9 DraftKings points per outing. He took his dominance to a new level in his most recent start, also against a strong team from the NL East. He held the Phillies to just 1 hit while picking up 15 strikeouts on his way to a complete-game shutout that earned him a season-high 58.6 DraftKings points.
He has a 1.34 ERA, 1.68 FIP, and a 39.8% K% this season, piling up 131 strikeouts in his 87 innings. He has at least 8 strikeouts in each of his last 10 starts and has established himself as the clear frontrunner for the NL Cy Young and is making his case as the top pitcher in baseball.
The Braves will be a tough matchup in Atlanta, but he brings such a high ceiling and has been so consistent that he has to be a consideration even though he’s so expensive. If you can find values in other spots, there is no other pitcher in baseball that can match his ceiling. His strikeout dominance and consistent production since the start of May have been absolutely phenomenal, especially when you remember that he’s still only 24 years old and in his first full season in the majors.
MLB DFS Value Pick
Ranger Suarez (L) $8,600 Boston Red Sox (+111) at Seattle Mariners
While the Red Sox season as a whole has been a huge disappointment, their big free agent signing of Ranger Suarez has looked pretty solid. The lefty has the third-highest Projected Plus/Minus of all starting pitchers scheduled to take the mound this Friday, and he should be in a good environment to deliver value in pitcher-friendly T-Mobile Park in Seattle.
Suarez has allowed 2 earned runs or fewer in 6 of his last 8 starts, and he has 51 strikeouts in 43 innings over that stretch. In 2 road starts during that stretch, he picked up 10 strikeouts, earning 40.8 DraftKings points against the Blue Jays and 16.6 DraftKings points against the Guardians in those 2 outings.
With shaky run support, he only has 2 wins this season, but he has a solid 3.21 ERA, 2.82 FIP, and 1.17 WHIP. He has actually been better on the road than at home, averaging a solid 19.5 DraftKings points per game in his 6 road outings.
The Mariners are a solid matchup for Suarez since they have such a lefty-heavy lineup. They rank in the top 10 in MLB in K% against left-handed pitchers and are hitting only .216 in the split, the second-lowest mark in the majors. Seattle took 2 of 3 games from the O’s to start the week but only scored 3 runs in each game. Based on the matchup, this game could be another low-scoring contest, which should make Suarez a good value play with a high ceiling from under $9,000.
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MLB DFS GPP Pick
Tatsuya Imai (R) $6,000 Houston Astros (-125) vs. Cleveland Guardians
Tatsuya Imai is a boom-or-bust option this Friday for the Astros, but he does bring some upside along with his huge amount of salary cap space. He has the fourth-highest Projected Plus/Minus on the board, and he’s in a pretty solid spot to bounce back from his rough outing last Friday against the Royals.
Imai will likely have very low ownership on Friday’s slate since he is high-risk with his 6.43 ERA on the season. His last outing was a brutal one on the road in Kansas City that resulted in -9.5 DraftKings points since he gave up 5 runs on 4 hits and a walk while only recording 2 outs. He was staked to a nine-run lead before he took the mound in that game but gave most of it back without getting out of the first inning.
Before that disaster, though, the 28-year-old righty was gathering some decent momentum. He had earned over 16 DraftKings points in 3 straight games, including his second-best start of the season. He posted 21.8 DraftKings points against the Athletics in his last home start, striking out 8 over 5 innings to earn his third win of the year. The only start that was better for him was his second start of the year on April 4, when he dominated the Athletics for 31.2 DraftKings points.
Imai could be in a nice bounce-back spot on Friday since he’ll be facing an injury-depleted Guardians lineup that will be without Jose Ramirez (hand), Angel Martinez (foot), and Chase DeLauter (rib). Imai is holding righties to just a .196 batting average despite all his troubles this season and has managed to pick up 37 strikeouts in 35 innings.
Despite the risk, he has enough upside to be a solid bargain play for tournament lineups this Friday, and there are some positive indicators for him to have a bounce-back outing.
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Player Model, when generated by projected points, belongs to the Pittsburgh Pirates:
The Pirates are the top stack of the night as they head to Coors Field for a great matchup against Kyle Freeland ($5,800). Pittsburgh started the week with a three-game set in Sacramento, scoring 20 runs in 3 games and taking 2 of 3 from the A’s. They’ll be in another hitter-friendly environment on Friday, with warm temperatures in the rarified air of Denver. It also helps that they’ll face veteran lefty Freeland, who has a 7.98 ERA and 1.70 WHIP in his 12 starts this season and has allowed 20 runs on 33 hits, including 5 homers, in just 24 home innings this season.
Righties have done most of the damage against Freeland, with 13 homers, a .335 batting average, a .423 wOBA, a 46.5% hard-hit rate, and a 10.6% barrel rate against him this season. Marcell Ozuna and Nick Gonzales are on the strong side of those splits, and switch-hitting Bryan Reynolds will also face him from that side.
Reynolds comes in scalding hot after averaging 13.4 DraftKings points per game over his last 9 contests with 4 home runs. Ozuna homered on Wednesday and is up to 6 long balls on the season. Even though they’re lefties, Spencer Horwitz and Brandon Lowe have enough momentum to be good plays as well if they get the start, and they could flourish later in the game against the Rockies’ shaky bullpen.
Not interested in messing around with optimizer settings? No worries, you can use our MLB DFS Simulations and let it find the best way to control your stacks, exposure, correlations, and more!
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Jo Adell OF ($3,900) Los Angeles Angels at Athletics (Jeffrey Springs)
The Angels will be without Mike Trout (hamstring) for a while, but their offense still is in a great spot to attack this Friday as they take on Jeffrey Springs in Sacramento. The weather will be homer-friendly at Sutter Health Park, and Springs has been an exceptional matchup at home, especially for righties, who have hit 13 of the 19 homers he has allowed in 15 starts this season.
Adell has 2 homers and a double while going 3-for-9 against Springs in the past, and he will look to continue that success on Friday night. He hasn’t homered in 10 games, which has caused his salary to dip to the point that he brings the highest Plus/Minus projection on the entire slate in the aggregate projections described above.
Adell is hitting .292 in June (19-for-65) with 4 doubles, a homer, 14 runs scored, and 8 RBI in 16 games. His barrel rate has been consistent at 8% most of the season, and he’ll look to add another barrel or 2 in this favorable spot on Friday.
Here’s how the Halos look against Springs in PlateIQ, where you can see who has been the most productive options this season against southpaws.
Kyle Manzardo 1B ($2,700) Cleveland Guardians at Houston Astros (Tatsuya Imai)
Manzardo has the third-highest Plus/Minus projection on the entire slate in the aggregate projections. He will need to help carry the load for the Guardians offense, and he definitely has good power potential for a player under $3,000.
On Thursday, he hit his 8th homer of the season and had 18 DraftKings points against the Brewers. The lefty has hit a solid .308 over his last 13 games with 3 homers, a .308 ISO, and a .446 wOBA. His average for the season is still only .237, but he is definitely trending in the right direction.
While Imai has had success against righties (detailed above), he has struggled against lefties like Manzardo, allowing them to post a 51.9% hard-hit rate and 11.1% barrel rate against him. Lefties have a .375 wOBA and 4 homers against him on the year, so Manzardo will be one of the hitters who could continue Imai’s recent struggles on Friday in Houston. Getting the first baseman for just $2,700 is an amazing value for the upside he brings.
Jasson Dominguez OF ($3,500) New York Yankees vs. Cincinnati Reds (Rhett Lowder)
The Martian has returned! Dominguez missed over a month with a shoulder injury and then had a tooth extracted on Tuesday. He returned to the lineup on Wednesday, though, and should have a clear path to playing time for a little while if he can manage to stay healthy.
The promising young switch-hitter has the second-highest Plus/Minus projection of all outfielders on Friday night, and he’s projected to bat second in the Yankees’ power-packed lineup in a favorable spot against Rhett Lowder.
Dominguez is 3-for-17 (.176) in his 4 games since returning with 2 doubles and a home run. He has hit the ball very well when he puts it in play, although he does have 4 strikeouts (22.2% K%) as well.
Dominguez went 5-for-18 in his rehab stint in Triple-A with a pair of homers as well, and he brings good power potential in a premium lineup spot for an outfield option with such an affordable salary.
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Pictured: Jacob Misiorowski
Photo Credit: Imagn
