The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Spencer Strider ($9,000) Atlanta Braves (-110) vs. New York Yankees
Before the start of last season, Strider was in the conversation for best pitcher in baseball. Unfortunately, he was forced to undergo Tommy John surgery early last year – the second TJ surgery of his career – and he hasn’t been quite the same pitcher since returning. His average fastball velocity is down roughly 2.5 miles per hour from his peak, while his xERA is middling at 3.89.
However, Strider is still really good at doing the most important thing in fantasy: piling up strikeouts. He ranks in the 87th percentile for strikeout rate and 94th percentile for Whiff rate, and he had 11 strikeouts vs. the Athletics in his final start before the All-Star break.
He has plenty of upside in that department Friday vs. the Yankees. New York can do some damage on offense, but they’re also prone to striking out in bunches. Their projected lineup has a 27.4% strikeout rate vs. right-handers over the past 12 months, which is the third-highest splits-adjusted mark on the slate. Add in Strider’s strikeout prowess, and you have the potential for a lot of Ks. He leads all pitchers with an 8.12 K Prediction, and no other starter is above 6.24. That more than makes up for his middling Vegas data. Ultimately, pitchers with comparable K Predictions and salaries have averaged a Plus/Minus of +3.27 (per the Trends tool).
Strider leads all pitchers in THE BAT X in median and ceiling projection, as well as projected Plus/Minus. That makes him the clear top choice at the position.
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MLB DFS Value Pick
Tyler Glasnow ($8,000) Los Angeles Dodgers (-190) vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Glasnow is another uber-talented pitcher who has struggled with injuries. He’s thrown more than 120 innings in a season just once in his career, and that came in his first year with the Dodgers. He turned in a dominant season before suffering an injury late, pitching to a 2.65 xERA and 11.28 K/9.
Glasnow has once again missed a large chunk of this season with injuries, but he made his return right before the All-Star break. He looked good in his first start in months, allowing zero earned runs with five strikeouts in five innings. He’s now allowed two earned runs or fewer in five of his six starts, and he’s striking out just under 11 batters per nine innings.
The Dodgers will likely continue to take it easy on Glasnow in hopes of keeping him healthy for the postseason, but he is clearly more talented than his $8,000 salary suggests. He was priced at $8,700 in his last outing, and he posted a Plus/Minus of +3.07 despite going just five innings. His current salary results in a 97% Bargain Rating, which is one of the top marks of the day.
Glasnow ultimately ranks second on the slate in K Prediction, and he’s the largest favorite of the day at -190. That’s a nice combination, especially for someone priced at just $8,000.
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MLB DFS GPP Picks
Sandy Alcantara ($6,000) Miami Marlins (+104) vs. Minnesota Twins
Alcantara is sandwiched right between Strider and Glasnow in projected Plus/Minus in THE BAT X. It has not been a good year for Alcantara – he owns a dreadful 7.22 ERA – but he showed some signs of improvement in June. He’ll also get a strong matchup Friday vs. the Twins, who are merely 23rd in wRC+ vs. right-handers. It’s possible that Alcantara never returns to his pre-injury form, but there’s minimal downside at just $6,000. He’s a solid SP2 in tournaments in lineups where you’re looking to load up on bats.
Luis Castillo ($8,500) Seattle Mariners (-135) vs. Houston Astros
Castillo has regressed a bit in 2025, especially from a strikeout standpoint. His K/9 is down to just 7.73, which is the lowest mark of his career. However, it hasn’t had a huge impact on his ability to get outs: his 3.41 ERA is actually slightly better than his mark last season. Some of his ERA indicators suggest that he’s due for regression, but that feels far less likely to happen in Seattle. T-Mobile Park ranks as the most pitcher-friendly venue in baseball, and Castillo has pitched to a 2.29 ERA at home this season. His K/9 also increases to 8.24 in that split, so he’s a viable target at home vs. the Astros.
Sean Manaea ($7,000) New York Mets (-154) vs. Cincinnati Reds
Manaea stands out as the best source of leverage on this slate. He’s currently projected for less than 10% ownership, but he has a solid ceiling at just $7,000. He’ll be making his first start of the year, but he impressed in a relief outing before the All-Star break. He racked up seven strikeouts in just 3.1 innings, resulting in a sparkling 1.85 xERA. He’s a moderate favorite at home vs. the Reds, who are 22nd in wRC+ vs. southpaws this season.
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MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
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The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Player Model when generated by projected points using THE BAT X belongs to the Minnesota Twins:
With no true stud pitcher to pay up for on this slate, it’s a day where you can pretty easily afford your top stack target on offense. The fact that the Twins earn that designation in THE BAT X only makes things easier. Their top five batters will cost just $23,800, so they can pretty easily be paired with whoever you want at pitcher.
The Twins benefit from a massive stadium upgrade on Friday. They’ll head out to Colorado for a series at Coors Field, which remains the most hitter-friendly venue in baseball. As a result, the Twins are implied for 6.3 runs, which is the top mark on the slate by a comfortable margin. The Phillies rank second in that department, and they’re more than a full run behind at 5.2.
The Twins will square off with Kyle Freeland, who has pitched to a 6.69 ERA when pitching at Coors this season. Right-handed batters in particular have feasted on Freeland in that split, posting a .395 batting average and .574 slugging percentage. Each of the Twins’ top five hitters will have the splits advantage vs. Freeland, and their top four hitters have impressive marks vs. southpaws in 2025 (via Plate IQ):
Byron Buxton stands out as their clear top option, and he should garner heavy consideration even if you’re not stacking Minnesota. He’s one of the most talented players in baseball when healthy, with a power/speed combo that very few in the league can match. He’s been extremely dangerous vs. southpaws this season, so he has massive upside in this spot.
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Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Angel Martinez, 2B/OF ($2,900) Cleveland Guardians vs. Athletics (JP Sears)
Among the non-Coors options on this slate, Martinez leads all batters in projected Plus/Minus using the blended projection set. He checks in at just $2,900 with eligibility at multiple positions, making him easy to fit in most lineup constructions.
Martinez was hot before the All-Star break, posting a positive Plus/Minus in seven of his final eight games. He went deep in three of those contests, and he also added five doubles.
He’s expected to bat second for the Guardians on Friday vs. a left-hander, and Martinez has posted a .356 wOBA and .205 ISO in that split this season. He’s underpriced in this spot.
Alec Burleson, OF ($3,700) St. Louis Cardinals at Arizona Diamondbacks (Brandon Pfaadt)
Burleson is another player who was probably sad to see the All-Star Break. He has been smoking the baseball since June 1, posting an .887 OPS with seven homers.
He’ll be on the positive side of his splits Friday in a strong matchup vs. Pfaadt. Pfaadt has been dreadful this season, pitching to a 5.16 ERA and 6.20 xERA across 19 starts. Lefties have posted a .352 wOBA against him, so it’s a great opportunity for Burleson to pick up right where he left off.
Aaron Judge, OF ($6,400) New York Yankees at Atlanta Braves (Spencer Strider)
You won’t get many opportunities to get Judge at lower ownership than you will on Friday. With Strider expected to garner around 50% ownership, most will likely fade the Yankees’ offense. That makes Judge one of the best sources of leverage on the slate.
Strider is a tough matchup, but he’s far from invincible. Judge is the unquestioned best hitter on the planet, becoming just the sixth player in history to enter the All-Star Break with at least 30 homers and a .350 batting average. Any time you can get a hitter of his caliber at less than 10% projected ownership, it’s something you should at least consider.
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Pictured: Spencer Strider
Photo Credit: Getty Images
