The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Tarik Skubal ($12,000) Detroit Tigers (-240) vs. Seattle Mariners
Skubal has solidified his claim as the best pitcher in baseball this season. He won the AL Triple Crown in 2024 – leading the league in wins, ERA, and strikeouts – and he’s been even better in 2025. His ERA is down to 2.02, while his K/9 is up to 11.48. He also possesses some of the best batted ball data in the league, so there’s nothing he can’t do on a pitcher’s mound.
Skubal has been at the peak of his powers recently. He’s thrown seven scoreless innings in each of his past two starts, and he’s tallied 23 strikeouts in those outings. He’s also scattered just four total hits and one walk, so he’s been basically touchable.
Skubal’s matchup on Friday is a bit of a mixed bag. The Mariners offense has held its own against southpaws this season, particularly when playing outside of Seattle. They’re second in wRC+ when facing a lefty on the road, so it is a bit of a tougher outing for Skubal.
However, the Mariners’ lineup is also very strikeout-prone against lefties. They have the eighth-highest strikeout rate against southpaws, so Skubal has excellent upside. He leads all pitchers with an 8.33 K Prediction, and no other starter is above 7.16. That gives him the clear top ceiling on the slate.
Skubal is also unsurprisingly getting plenty of respect from Vegas. The Mariners are implied for just 2.8 runs in this matchup, which is the lowest mark of the day. Skubal is also one of the biggest favorites at -240, and pitchers with comparable K Predictions and Vegas data have historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +3.93 (per the Trends tool).
Ultimately, there are some other strong options to choose from, but no pitcher checks as many boxes as Skubal. He’s going to cost you quite a bit, but he’s more than capable of paying off his elevated salary.
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MLB DFS Value Pick
Chase Burns ($7,500) Cincinnati Reds (-242) vs. Colorado Rockies
Perhaps one day, Burns will be in the discussion for “best pitcher in baseball.” He was the No. 2 pick in the 2024 MLB Draft, and he wasted little time breezing through the minor leagues. He was unchallenged at basically every level, ultimately posting a 1.77 ERA and 12.14 K/9 in 66 minor league innings in 2025.
Unfortunately, Burns has been unable to keep it going at the MLB level. That’s not a huge shock, but Burns has struggled to an 8.10 ERA and 5.96 xERA through his first three outings. Those outings have come against three tough offenses in the Yankees, Red Sox, and Phillies, but Burns still managed to rack up 13.5 strikeouts per nine innings.
Burns will finally get his chance to deal with a weak lineup on Friday. The Reds are hosting the Rockies in Cincinnati, and picking on the Rockies outside of Coors Field is always a viable strategy. They’re 29th in runs per game and wRC+ vs. right-handers when on the road, and they also have the highest strikeout rate in baseball in that split.
Burns currently boasts a 6.88 K Prediction, which is the fourth-highest mark on the slate. Each of the three pitchers ahead of him costs at least $10,000, so Burns stands out as a clear outlier at $7,500. Historically, pitchers with comparable salaries and K Predictions have been solid sources of value, averaging a Plus/Minus of +2.01.
Burns also has plenty of win equity in this spot. He’s a -242 favorite, which is the top mark on the entire slate.
He’s the clear best value option at pitcher, leading all players in projected Plus/Minus in THE BAT X. Pairing him with Skubal will be very chalky for tournaments, but it’s hard to go in any other direction for cash games.
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MLB DFS GPP Picks
Joe Ryan ($10,000) Minnesota Twins (-130) vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Ryan will square off with Paul Skenes in a heavyweight showdown on Friday. While Skenes is the better pitcher overall, Ryan stands out as the superior DFS target. Not only is he a bit cheaper, but he’s favored and has a higher K Prediction. That stems from the fact that the Pirates’ offense is an absolute disaster. They’re the only team that has been worse on the road than the Rockies this season, and their 3.4 implied run total is the second-lowest mark of the day. He’s a solid pivot if you can’t find the extra $1,500 for Skubal.
Max Scherzer ($7,000) Toronto Blue Jays (-162) at Athletics
Scherzer has not been particularly impressive in his limited MLB action this season, but he’s only made four starts. It’s tough to read too heavily into that, and Scherzer has still proven capable of striking out batters at the MLB level. That gives him some upside vs. the Athletics, whose projected lineup has the fifth-highest splits-adjusted strikeout rate on the slate. Scherzer could be a cheap source of punchouts at minimal ownership, and his -162 moneyline odds give him some win upside as well.
Edward Cabrera ($7,200) Miami Marlins (+111) at Baltimore Orioles
Cabrera has electric stuff, and he’s started to put it all together in 2025. He was elite in June, pitching to a 2.89 ERA with 21 strikeouts in 18.2 innings, and he’s been even better so far in July. He’s gone seven innings in each of his past two starts, and he’s allowed just seven hits, one walk, and two earned runs combined. Cabrera is an underdog Friday vs. the Orioles, but he’s simply too cheap for how well he’s been pitching. His $7,200 price tag ultimately comes with a 94% Bargain Rating on DraftKings, and he’s projected for less than 5% ownership.
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MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Player Model when generated by projected points using THE BAT X belongs to the Arizona Diamondbacks:
Prioritizing offense vs. pitching is going to be a huge factor on this slate. The Diamondbacks have the top projected stack, but their combined salary exceeds $25,000. That’s going to make them nearly impossible to pair with Skubal, which means they could fly a bit under the radar. Their 5.0 implied run total ranks just tied for sixth on this slate, so it’s hard to imagine most people ponying up the big bucks for them.
That said, the Diamondbacks clearly have some upside against Tyler Anderson. He hasn’t exactly been a gas can this season – 4.18 ERA, 1.49 HR/9 – but his advanced metrics suggest he’s been slightly worse than advertised. His ERA indicators are closer to five, and he’s one of the softest tossers in all of baseball.
The Diamondbacks rank 10th in wRC+ vs. southpaws for the year, and they have a 127 mark in that department over the past seven days. The top of their order is particularly dangerous in that split, with all but Josh Naylor standing out as above-average hitters (via Plate IQ):
Ketel Marte is the biggest threat. He has historically been at his best against southpaws, and he’s putting together a massive season at the dish in 2025. He has 19 homers in just 66 games, and he’s near the top of the league in xSLG. He’s a prime target on this slate, regardless of whether or not you choose to stack the Diamondbacks.
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Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Andrew Vaughn, 1B ($2,300) Milwaukee Brewers vs. Washington Nationals (Mitchell Parker)
Finding some cheap players to surround your stack and Skubal/Ryan is paramount on this slate. Vaughn stands out as one of the best, leading our blended projection set in projected Plus/Minus.
Vaughn has not had a good season, but his advanced metrics suggest he’s been more unlucky than bad. He has excellent batted-ball data, and his expected metrics are significantly higher than his actual marks. That makes him a positive regression candidate moving forward.
Vaughn will also be on the positive side of his splits vs. a southpaw, with Vaughn owning a 110 career wRC+ in those matchups. Add in an offense upgrade after moving from the White Sox to the Brewers, and Vaughn stands out as a prime buy-low target.
Jesus Sanchez, OF ($3,500) Miami Marlins at Baltimore Orioles (Dean Kremer)
Sanchez is another solid value option to consider. He put together his best season in 2024, clubbing 18 homers with 16 stolen bases, and he’s having another quality campaign this season. He’s been particularly good to start July, posting a .324 batting average with an .814 OPS.
He’s expected to bat second for the Marlins Friday vs. Dean Kremer, which is not a particularly intimidating matchup. Kremer owns a 4.53 ERA for the year, and he’s surrendered a .354 wOBA to left-handed batters.
Gunnar Henderson, SS ($4,500) Baltimore Orioles vs. Miami Marlins (Edward Cabrera)
On the other side of that matchup, Henderson stands out for the Orioles. He hasn’t been quite as good as he was in his breakout 2024 campaign, but he’s still torn the cover off the ball against righties. He owns a 151 wRC+ in that split, and nine of his 11 homers have come against righties. That makes Henderson underpriced when on the positive side of his splits, even against a potentially tough righty in Cabrera.
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Pictured: Tarik Skubal
Photo Credit: Getty Images
