The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Tarik Skubal ($11,600) Detroit Tigers (-294) vs. Los Angeles Angels
On some slates, you can make a case for a few different players being the top arm. This is not one of them. Skubal will take the bump for the Tigers, and he’s the best pitcher in baseball at the moment. Maybe you could make the argument for Paul Skenes instead, but Skubal ranks first in WAR, first in xERA, and first in K-BB% for qualified starters. He’s somehow been even better than he was last season, when he led the American League in wins, ERA, and strikeouts.
Skubal checks all the boxes on this slate. He draws a solid matchup vs. the Angels, who are merely 19th in wRC+ vs. southpaws. They also have the highest strikeout rate in baseball in that split, giving Skubal immense upside. He owns a massive 8.76 K Prediction on this slate, and no other pitcher is within even two strikeouts of him.
Skubal’s Vegas data in this contest is also elite. He leads all pitchers with a 2.8 opponent implied team total, and he’s the largest favorite of the day at -294. It’s tough to beat that combination. Pitchers with comparable Vegas data and K Predictions have historically averaged 22.95 DraftKings points, good for an average Plus/Minus of +2.80 (per the Trends tool).
That might be a conservative projection for Skubal. He’s coming off 30.75 DraftKings points in his last outing, and his ceiling projection in THE BAT X is close to 40 points in our MLB Models. He leads all starters in median, ceiling, and projected Plus/Minus, so he’s basically mandatory for cash games.
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MLB DFS Value Pick
Zac Gallen ($8,000) Arizona Diamondbacks (-246) vs. Colorado Rockies
It has been a season to forget for Gallen. He’s been a really good pitcher since debuting in 2019, posting a sub-3.00 ERA in three of his first four seasons. He was up slightly to 3.47 and 3.65 the past two years, but those still made him a well-above-average starter. Gallen was third in NL Cy Young voting back in 2023, and he’s averaged at least 9.39 strikeouts per nine innings in each year as a professional.
Unfortunately, he’s taken a major step back this year. His ERA is all the way up to 5.48, while his K/9 is down to 8.39. His xERA suggests he’s been a bit unlucky, but his 4.91 mark is still the worst mark of his career by a wide margin.
The good news is none of that should matter on Friday. He’s taking on the Rockies at home, and it doesn’t get much better from a matchup standpoint. Not only do the Rockies have the worst road wRC+ in baseball against right-handed pitchers, but they also have the highest strikeout rate in that split. That’s an extremely juicy combination, giving Gallen plenty of upside and safety.
Gallen is getting lots of respect from Vegas in this spot. Colorado’s 3.6 implied run total is tied for the second-lowest of the day, and Gallen trails only Skubal in terms of moneyline odds. It’s hard to beat Vegas numbers like that at an $8k price tag, and comparable pitchers have historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +4.18.
Ultimately, Gallen makes for the ideal SP2 alongside Skubal, though pairing both together should carry plenty of ownership in tournaments.
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MLB DFS GPP Picks
Brandon Woodruff ($10,300) Milwaukee Brewers (-141) vs. New York Mets
Woodruff made his return to the mound after spending nearly the past two years on the shelf, and he’s picked up basically right where he left off. He owns a 2.22 ERA and 2.10 xERA, and he’s striking out nearly 12 batters per nine innings. The Mets have a dangerous lineup on paper, but Woodruff is catching them at the right time: they’re merely 23rd in wRC+ vs. right-handers over the past 14 days.
Nick Pivetta ($9,500) San Diego Padres (-170) vs. Boston Red Sox
Pivetta gets to square off with his former team on Friday night. The Red Sox have been hot recently, but they’re not nearly as formidable outside of Fenway Park. They’re third in the league in runs per game at home, but they dip to No. 8 on the road. Their projected lineup also has a 25.3% strikeout rate vs. right-handers over the past 12 months, and Pivetta’s 6.42 K Prediction ranks third on the slate. He’s projected for less than 15% ownership and provides solid savings from Skubal, so he’s an interesting pivot for tournaments.
Kai-Wei Teng ($5,100) San Francisco Giants (-161) vs. Washington Nationals
If you’re looking to punt at SP2 on Friday, you could do much worse than Teng. He averaged more than 14 strikeouts per nine innings at Triple-A this season, and he had four punchouts in just 3.1 innings in his first start. The big downside here is his pitch count. He only lasted 67 pitches in his first career MLB start, so he’ll likely be capped around 75-80 on Friday. That means he’s going to need to be economical to get to five innings and potentially qualify for the win, but he should be productive when he’s on the bump. Washington is merely 23rd in wRC+ vs. right-handers in 2025. There’s also a chance that Teng works as a “follower” on Friday, which would increase his win potential.
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MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Player Model when generated by projected points using THE BAT X belongs to the Athletics:
The Athletics were not expected to be a top offensive squad this season, but they have defied expectations. Part of that stems from calling up Nick Kurtz, who has become an absolute star. He’s second in the league in wRC+ since being promoted to the majors, trailing only Aaron Judge. That’s not too shabby for a guy who was only drafted last year.
With Kurtz and company mashing baseballs, the Athletics are sixth in the league in homers per game. They’re No. 3 in homers per game on the road, and they’ve also been hot recently. They erupted for 16 runs on Tuesday, and they followed that up with six runs on Thursday.
The Athletics will start a series with the Orioles on Friday in Baltimore, and they get an elite matchup vs. Tomoyuki Sugano. Sugano got off to a good start this season, but his advanced metrics had him pegged as a major regression candidate. Sure enough, his ERA has ballooned to 6.70 over his past nine starts. For the year, his 5.85 xERA puts him in the fourth percentile, while his 11.8% barrel rate puts him in the sixth.
Sugano is also one of the worst pitchers in baseball at generating swings and misses. His Whiff and strikeout rates are both in the bottom 10% for MLB pitchers, which is a huge boon for the Athletics. Their top hitters are a bit strikeout-prone, but they do significant damage when they can put the ball in play. Their top five have all been excellent against right-handers in 2025 (per Plate IQ):
The only downside to the Athletics is their price tags. Their top stack is going to set you back $25,700, which makes them nearly impossible to pair with Skubal. You’re going to have to choose between the two, and with most people likely gravitating toward Skubal, it could make a full Athletics’ stack undervalued for tournaments.
Not interested in messing around with optimizer settings? No worries, you can use our MLB DFS Simulations and let it find the best way to control your stacks, exposure, correlations, and more!
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Allen Roden, OF ($2,300) Minnesota Twins vs. Kansas City Royals (Seth Lugo)
The Twins gutted their roster before the trade deadline, which has opened up plenty of playing time for some new players. Roden is still priced near the minimum at $2,300, but he’s expected to serve as the team’s leadoff hitter on Friday. That’s a pretty solid combination. Historically, players with comparable salaries have averaged a Plus/Minus of +1.77 when batting leadoff.
Roden will also be on the positive side of his splits vs. Lugo, and he launched a homer with 18.0 DraftKings points in his last outing. He ultimately leads all batters in projected Plus/Minus in our blended projection set, making him a solid source of savings.
Tyler Locklear, 1B ($2,600) Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Colorado Rockies (Austin Gomber)
Locklear is another player whose price tag has yet to reflect his new role. He’s taken over as the Diamondbacks’ first baseman following the Josh Naylor trade, and he’s been pretty productive. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in three of his past four games, and he’s had at least 14.0 DraftKings points in two of them.
Locklear is tentatively slated to bat fifth on Friday, and he’s in one of the best spots of the day vs. Gomber. The Diamondbacks lead the slate with a 5.5 implied run total, and Gomber owns an ERA over six this season. He also throws from the left side, and right-handed batters have posted a .316 batting average, .574 slugging percentage, and .393 wOBA against him. Locklear has a 133 wRC+ against southpaws in his limited MLB action, and his lone homer has come in that split.
Bo Naylor, C ($2,600) Cleveland Guardians at Chicago White Sox (Aaron Civale)
Let’s round out our trio of underpriced hitters with Naylor. Not only is he cheap, but he’s expected to bat fifth for the Guardians and fills the tricky catcher position. He has the fourth-best projected Plus/Minus in our blended projections, and he’s provided positive value in four of his past six starts. Three of those contests have been games with double-digit fantasy points, so he’s a nice target at a weak position.
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Pictured: Tarik Skubal
Photo Credit: Imagn
