The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Logan Gilbert ($10,200) Seattle Mariners (-272) vs. Miami Marlins
There are a handful of strong pitching options to consider on Friday, but Gilbert stands out as the best. For starters, Gilbert is simply one of the best starters in the league. He may not have the same name value as some of the other top arms in baseball, but the former top prospect has fully blossomed into an ace. He’s pitched to a 2.63 ERA through his first five outings this season, and his 2.47 xERA and 2.21 FIP are even better.
Gilbert is also one of the best strikeout arms in baseball. He’s in the 97th percentile for strikeout rate this season, punching out 38.0% of opposing batters. He’s racked up a ridiculous 13.5 strikeouts per nine innings, and he’s had at least seven punchouts in all five starts.
Gilbert checks all the boxes for fantasy purposes Friday vs. the Marlins. He has the best Vegas data on the slate. He’s the biggest favorite of the day at -272, while the Marlins’ 2.9 implied team total is tied for the lowest. Historically, pitchers with comparable salaries and Vegas marks have averaged a Plus/Minus of +3.47 (per the Trends tool).
Gilbert also leads all pitchers with a K Prediction of 8.24. Miami has struck out at the third-highest frequency against right-handers this season, so his already-elite strikeout numbers look even better on Friday.
If all that wasn’t enough, Gilbert also benefits from getting to pitch in one of the most pitcher-friendly venues in baseball. His ERA was roughly 1.5 runs lower in Seattle than on the road last season, so there’s no reason not to love him in this spot. He leads the position in projected Plus/Minus, and he has the highest ceiling projection as well.
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MLB DFS Value Pick
Justin Verlander ($7,300) San Francisco Giants (-115) vs. Texas Rangers
Finding a pitcher to complement Gilbert is a bit trickier. 12 of Friday’s starters are priced at $8,000 or higher, so it doesn’t leave a ton of options.
However, Verlander has some appeal at $7,300. He’s a future first-ballot Hall-of-Famer, taking home three Cy Young Awards and an MVP during his illustrious career. While he’s not the same pitcher that he was in his prime, he’s still capable of getting the job done. His numbers aren’t great on paper – particularly his 5.47 ERA – but he’s been unlucky through his first five starts. His xERA is a much more manageable 4.01, while he still grades out favorably from a pitch-modeling standpoint. Among 129 pitchers with at least 20 innings this season, he’s 18th in Stuff+.
Verlander is coming off his best start of the season in his last outing. He pitched six innings of one-run ball vs. the Angels, racking up six strikeouts in the process. He also surrendered just two hits and two walks, so there’s reason for optimism with him moving forward.
Verlander will get to take the bump in San Francisco on Friday, which is always a big plus for pitchers. It’s another venue that favors hurlers, and Verlander’s 3.77 FIP in San Francisco is far better than his road mark this season.
The matchup vs. the Rangers is another positive. They’re merely 25th in wRC+ against right-handers this season, and their lineup is currently without their best left-handed bat in Corey Seager.
Ultimately, Verlander ranks fourth among pitchers in projected Plus/Minus, and he’s No. 1 among starters priced below $8,500. If you’re looking to find a way to get to some expensive bats on this slate, he could be your guy.
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MLB DFS GPP Picks
Yoshinobu Yamamoto ($10,500) Los Angeles Dodgers (-219) vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
We’ll have a heavyweight showdown between Yamamoto and Paul Skenes in Los Angeles on Friday. While Skenes will have to navigate a brutal Dodgers’ lineup, Yamamoto should be able to carve through the Pirates. Pittsburgh is 26th in wRC+ against right-handers, and Yamomoto has been unbelievable through his first five starts. He’s pitched to a sub-1.00 ERA with a 35.2% strikeout rate, and his underlying metrics suggest he’s been basically as good as advertised. He doesn’t grade out quite as well as Gilbert, but that should result in slightly lower ownership. He’s a phenomenal pivot for tournaments.
Pablo Lopez ($8,500) Minnesota Twins (-214) vs. Los Angeles Angels
Lopez is expected to be activated from the IL and start vs. the Angels on Friday. While it’s always risky to trust a pitcher in his first start back from injury, Lopez shouldn’t be too heavily limited in his return. Lopez was sidelined for a hamstring injury as opposed to an issue with his arm, and he was only forced to miss around two weeks. His Vegas data is just a notch below Gilbert and Yamamoto – 3.4 opponent implied team total, -214 moneyline odds – but he’s available at a solid discount. His 6.73 K Prediction is also fourth on the slate, so he’s another excellent option.
Matthew Liberatore ($7,500) St. Louis Cardinals (-130) vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Liberatore has been far better than his $7,500 salary suggests so far this season. He’s pitched to a 3.60 ERA and a 3.06 xERA, and his last two outings have been arguably his most impressive. He’s limited two solid offenses in the Mets and Phillies to just two combined runs over 12.2 innings, and he’s added 13 strikeouts in the process. If he can do that vs. those squads, there’s no reason he can’t shut down the Brewers. Milwaukee is merely 23rd in wRC+ vs. southpaws so far this season.
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MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Player Model when generated by projected points belongs to the Cincinnati Reds:
In addition to a bunch of stud pitchers on the bump, we also have Coors Field available on Friday’s slate. The Reds will travel out to Colorado to take on the Rockies, which immediately puts their offense in the forefront. They’re currently projected for 5.2 runs, which is the second-highest mark on the main slate.
They’ll square off with southpaw Kyle Freeland, who has actually pitched reasonably well this season. However, he’s a pitcher who struggles to miss bats, and that can be a recipe for disaster in Coors. He has a 6.48 ERA in his two home outings this season, so the Reds can do some damage in this spot.
The Reds also have some batters who can do damage vs. left-handers. Specifically, Matt McLain, Santiago Espinal, and Austin Hayes have all fared better in that split since the start of last season (via Plate IQ):
However, Elly De La Cruz is the headliner for this stack at a whopping $6,400, and he has not been great against southpaws. He’s a switch hitter, but he posted a 134 wRC+ against right-handers and an 82 mark against left-handers last year. The gap isn’t quite as stark this season, but it hasn’t been due to an increase in production against southpaws: his wRC+ still sits at just 86.
De La Cruz is capable of producing a lot of splash plays with steals and extra-base hits, but paying $6,500 for him isn’t the most appealing option against a lefty. Stacking the Reds without him will not only help from an ownership standpoint, but it also makes adding an elite pitcher much more doable.
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Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. 1B ($5,000) Toronto Blue Jays at New York Yankees (Carlos Carrasco)
The Blue Jays are one of my favorite pivots off the Reds for tournaments. Not only are they much more affordable, but they have an equally appealing matchup vs. Carrasco. Carrasco has pitched to a 6.53 ERA this season, and his advanced metrics aren’t much better. He’s surrendering loud contact in bunches, including plenty of homers.
Guerrero isn’t off to the best start at the dish, but his Statcast data suggests there is no cause for concern. He should turn things around eventually, and a matchup vs. Carrasco could be just what the doctor ordered.
Edouard Julien 2B ($2,800) Minnesota Twins vs. Los Angeles Angels (Kyle Hendricks)
I’m a sucker for a cheap leadoff hitter, and Julien fits that description on Friday. That said, he has more than just that working in his favor. His matchup vs. Hendricks is also solid, with Hendricks pitching to a 5.92 ERA last season. His numbers are slightly better this season (4.50 ERA), but part of that stems from a .237 BABIP. He’s still one of the worst strikeout pitchers in baseball, and pitchers who allow that many balls in play can be volatile.
Julien’s numbers don’t jump off the page, but his underlying metrics suggest room for improvement. His xBA and xSLG are both significantly better than his actual marks, and he’ll have the splits advantage vs. Hendricks. Ultimately, he stands out as one of the better pure values on the slate, ranking fifth in projected Plus/Minus in the blended projections.
Kyle Farmer 2B/SS ($3,400) Colorado Rockies vs. Cincinnati Reds (Andrew Abbott)
The Rockies will rarely generate the same level of interest as their opponents when playing at Coors. Colorado can’t hit, so they don’t exactly take advantage of the favorable environment.
Still, Farmer stands out as an intriguing option on Friday. He’s a right-handed batter who specializes in hitting southpaws, and he’ll be facing a lefty in Abbott. Farmer has a 131 wRC+ against lefties in Coors so far this season, and he has a 119 mark against southpaws for his career.
Farmer is also very affordable at $3,400, has eligibility at both middle infield spots, and is expected to bat second in the Rockies’ lineup. Don’t let his teammates’ inability scare you off him.
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Pictured: Logan Gilbert
Photo Credit: Getty Images
