Wednesday features a 10-game main slate with first pitch at 7:05 p.m. ET.
This is a bit of a smaller slate than usual, but there are some big-name starting pitchers to choose from.
The No. 1 option on the Bales Model, who is just too cheap on both sites, is Arizona’s Zac Gallen. Gallen has one issue: giving up walks. He has 14 base on balls in 26 2/3 innings. His ability to avoid giving up hits has kept his ERA quite low. He does not feature upper-echelon elite strikeout stuff, but is at 32 in those 26 2/3 innings. He has been consistent with all of his starts having between five and eight strikeouts. Tonight he faces the Miami Marlins, who have the sixth-worst K% in the MLB. They are also bottom-third in the league at BB5. They were just shutdown on Monday night by Madison Bumgarner. From a relative cost standpoint, Gallen’s price range does not make much sense. On FanDuel, he is at $8,200. Danny Duffy is $10,200, Julio Urias is $9,700, and Max Fried in a much tougher matchup is $8,000.
Gerrit Cole rates out better on DraftKings than FanDuel, which again has to do with price. Cole is only $10,500 on DraftKings. Cole has been able to limit the home runs this season, which was his main problem in 2020. He has only allowed three home runs on the year and two were in his last start. Of course, Cole is featuring elite strikeout stuff, with 66 strikeouts in 44 2/3 innings. He faces the Tampa Bay Rays tonight, who have the third-worst K% in the MLB. Cole has already seen the Rays this season — he went 6 1/3 innings, giving up two earned runs with strikeouts. Last time out, he only had four strikeouts, but that had much more to do with the Houston Astros’ ability to put the ball in play than what Cole was doing. It’s hard not to like Cole, being one of the top pitcher’s in baseball. With the price point, it makes much more sense to roster him on DK than FD.
Another “ace” to consider would be Brandon Woodruff. I use quotations because he is not the Milwaukee Brewers’ ace, but would be for many other teams. He has a sizzling 1.73 ERA while averaging more than a strikeout per inning, as well. He has only given up 21 hits in 41 2/3 innings. Woodruff gets the St. Louis Cardinals tonight, who are a little better of an offense than Gallen and Cole will be facing. They are top-10 in the league in K%. Woodruff has been awfully consistent, with a quality start in every start outside of his first. You can use him, I just think I like Gallen and Cole slightly more. He could be a lower-owned pivot play, if players are dead set on one of the other two.
The Bales Model shows some confidence in Hyun-Jin Ryu, but I would lay-off for tonight. Ryu has looked really strong in a few starts this year, and then mediocre in others. He is just barely below a strikeout per inning this season. The Toronto Blue Jays are not even favored in this game and the Atlanta Braves’ offense is much more imposing than some of the other offenses to target against on the slate. He is a bit too risky for my liking.
The best stack of the night belongs to the Los Angeles Dodgers:
- 4. Max Muncy (L)
- 3. Justin Turner (R)
- 2. Corey Seager (L)
- 1. Mookie Betts (R)
This group of four is projected for 48.6 FanDuel points on $14,500 salary. The doubleheader in Colorado means no Coors Field on this slate. The Dodgers are facing Justin Dunn of the Seattle Mariners. He has actually been OK at run prevention this year, but has given up three home runs in five starts. He tends to not last too long in games either and the Dodgers got to the “better” part of the Mariners’ bullpen on Monday. The Dodgers are tied with the Boston Red Sox for the largest implied run total of the night at 5.0.
The model continues to love Marwin Gonzalez as long as he is atop the Red Sox lineup. He is 0-for-8 in his last two games, but the Red Sox have a favorable hitting matchup tonight. I would not use him if he is not at the top of the lineup.
Jorge Polanco is ripe for locking into your lineup. His price has not really moved (up $200 in the last month on FD) and he is 7-for-12 in his last three games with two home runs. He is just not a hitter that should be under .250 and his season looks to be making a turn. At times, the Minnesota Twins can have a potent offense with Polanco usually hitting middle of the order.
The Lineup Optimizer features a lot of the Arizona Diamondbacks, including Tim Locastro and Christian Walker. Walker has really — and I mean really — struggled to hit for power in 2021. He is seeing a bit of a turnaround as he is hitting .240 in the month of May with a double and triple in this series already. Locastro has yet to get a hit in May, following a nine-game hitting streak to end April. The Bales Model is just showcasing a fade of Daniel Castano of the Miami Marlins.
Kolten Wong is an interesting option atop the Brewers’ lineup. In his last three games, he is 5-for-14 with two doubles and gets to face a right-hander tonight. The Brew Crew do not have the most intimidating lineup as they await Christian Yelich, but he looks a little cheap to be getting the maximum number of possible at-bats.
Photo Credit: Getty Images
Pictured: Zac Gallen