The Tuesday Major League Baseball card features a 12-game main slate on DraftKings, plus an 11-game main slate on FanDuel, both starting at 7:05 p.m. ET.
We get to watch Jacob deGrom pitch tonight, which just feels more and more like a treat each turn through the rotation. deGrom is the favorite on the Bales Model for DraftKings and the second favorite for FanDuel.
As I wrote last week, it just seems that no offense is really capable of doing damage off of deGrom with the level he is at right now. He received another tough luck loss last time out, with giving up only his second earned run of the year to the Boston Red Sox in a 1-0 loss.
The St. Louis Cardinals, who deGrom is facing, are middle of the pack in terms of strikeout percentage. That does not mean that their K% will not increase after this game. DeGrom has a floor on the year of seven strikeouts and a ceiling of 15. He has thrown a quality start every time out.
The biggest question mark with deGrom might be the weather. This is one of a few games that has a precipitation concern, be sure to consult the Lineups page as we get closer to lock.
The favorite for the Bales Model on FanDuel is Aaron Nola. The reason he is the favorite over deGrom on that site is that his price is a little off of where it should be.
On FanDuel, he is $3,300 cheaper than deGrom, while on DraftKings he is only $700 cheaper.
Nola has not been as strong as he has been the past couple of seasons, but he still currently has a 3.11 ERA, 0.96 WHIP and is averaging over a strikeout per inning.
He faces the Milwaukee Brewers’ lineup tonight, who just received both Lorenzo Cain and Christian Yelich back yesterday. Currently, the Brewers have the third-worst K% in the MLB. That is what makes locking in Nola a bit more enticing on Tuesday.
For most games, you are probably deciding between those two.
Nick Pivetta might be my favorite down the board look for tonight. Right now, anyone who is facing the Detroit Tigers would be.
The Tigers are the worst team in the MLB with a 30.9 K%. They scored four runs in three games against the New York Yankees this weekend, with all four coming in one game. On top of that, over half of their outs in that series came via strikeout.
Pivetta is definitely a feast or famine play, who is walking way too many batters at the moment (17 in 25 2/3 innings on the year), but he has only given up one hit in each of his last two starts.
It could be worthy of a GPP dart throw.
I also think that J.A. Happ has found something in 2021 that he did not have in 2020. The only problem is that he just does not get many strikeouts, which is going to hurt his upside in DFS.
In his last two starts, Happ has gone a combined 14 1/3 innings, gave up only two earned runs, but only has six strikeouts. He faces the Texas Rangers tonight, another team that strikes out a ton – but that just is not Happ’s game.
He could be usable, but it’s buyer beware.
The top stack of the night belongs to the Atlanta Braves:
- 2. Freddie Freeman (L)
- 4. Ozzie Albies (S)
- 3. Marcell Ozuna (R)
- 1. Ronald Acuña Jr. (R)
This group of four is projected for 50.6 FanDuel points on $14,700 salary on the Bales Model. They face Joe Ross of the Washington Nationals. Ross has been a household name to fade in recent years, but has one of the craziest game logs of 2021 thus far. He has only made four starts, with his earned runs in each start being zero, zero, 10 and one. It’s a little tough to know what to make of his 2021 so far. All of these hitters hit for five ProTrends. Acuña is the favorite hitter on the Bales Model.
Alec Bohm looks quite cheap and his projected to hit second in the Philadelphia Phillies’ lineup. His batting average is stronger when facing right-handed pitching, but he has a significant OPS boost off of left-handers (.895 vs LHP as opposed to .730 vs RHP). He faces left-hander Eric Lauer.
Another top of the order that looks cheap is Josh Donaldson. Donaldson only has two home runs on the year so far, but has been excellent at avoiding striking out. He has seven walks and six strikeouts on the year. In his last two games, he has three doubles combined. He faces Kyle Gibson, who at times can be strong, but can still find rough patches within games.
Targeting any and all San Diego Padres are in play as well. Mitch Keller has been pretty bottom of the barrel for most of the season in terms of starting pitching options. The Padres have still yet to find a groove as an offense, but it feels like they will break out before we know it. The top of their lineup is usually not the issue.