Tuesday offers up a 12-game Major League Baseball main slate on both sites, starting at 7:05 p.m. ET.
The favorite on the Bales Model for Tuesday on DraftKings is Walker Buehler. Buehler has not been as dominant as he has been in the past, and that seems to have deflated his salary a bit on DraftKings.
I think there are numbers indicating that the deflation is unwarranted.
Buehler has completed at least six innings in every start this season — an excellent trait for DFS as many starting pitchers are averaging shorter and shorter outings.
He also has seen a clear differential in strikeout potential early on this season. In his first three starts, he totaled 12 strikeouts. In the three starts since then, he has totaled 27.
Now, he faces the Seattle Mariners, who have the sixth-worst strikeout percentage in the baseball. Their lineup is a mess, with nearly half of the regulars batting under .200 this season.
Freddy Peralta rates out well for both sites. Peralta has been featuring elite strikeout stuff this season, but has struggled to keep his walks down.
Throwing out the first appearance he made of the season as a relief pitcher, Peralta has a floor of seven strikeouts. He has even accomplished that in a start that lasted four innings.
However, Peralta has also walked 17 in 32 innings this season, a number he will have to look to control. Peralta faces the St. Louis Cardinals, who are a top-10 team in the league in avoiding strikeouts.
This game projects as a pitcher’s duel, with both teams’ implied run totals under 4.0. If you decide to roster Peralta, you are expecting the strikeouts to continue.
The bargain pitcher of the night is easily Brady Singer.
This could be a really wise play. Singer faces the Detroit Tigers who are clearly one of the worst offense in the MLB. They have the worst strikeout percentage, by nearly 2 percentage points. Singer has already faced them this year. In that start, Singer went seven innings, giving up an earned run on eight strikeouts. The strikeout total is his season high.
If he were to repeat that performance, he would hit for insane value. Singer is the third-cheapest pitcher on DraftKings, which just makes no sense. He is priced more fairly on FanDuel.
The model really likes Dinelson Lamet, which I don’t get. I think the projections are wrong for how long he will last. The San Diego Padres have been really careful with Lamet so far this season. He isn’t built back up yet. I would think he lasts for four innings at the most. It’s a really large, unnecessary risk to roster him for me.
The top stack belongs to the San Diego Padres, who just so happen to be playing at Coors Field:
- 3. Manny Machado (R)
- 1. Fernando Tatis Jr. (R)
- 5. Wil Myers (R)
- 2. Trent Grisham (L)
This group of four is projected for 49.0 FanDuel points on a $16,300 salary. This makes sense, with the Padres playing at Coors. All four of these guys hit for at least five ProTrends. It’s really strange, but the Colorado Rockies’ starting pitchers have actually pitched better at home this season, although there is plenty of time for that to change. They face Antonio Senzatela, who is a career below average pitcher. He has a high on the season of four strikeouts in a start. Myers is 10 for 26 lifetime off of Senzatela.
The Bales Model really likes Michael Brantley tonight. He just seems a bit under-priced, albeit he has to face Shohei Ohtani. He has a hit in six of his last seven games, and has been walking more in the month of May. The power numbers have not been there for him this season, but it feels really low that he only has nine RBI’s. He is a cheap, top of the lineup bat.
The model also likes Marwin Gonzalez for very similar reasons. He has become the de-facto lead-off hitter for the Boston Red Sox. The Red Sox got shut down Monday, but have been the best and most consistent offense of the season to begin the year. He also doesn’t have a power stroke working, but is 10 for 35 in May with at least one hit in every game except Monday’s contest.
Juan Soto pops up a lot on the Lineup Optimizer. He’s off to a cold start to the month of May, mired in a 2-for-15 slump. Targeting hitters against Chase Anderson has worked to start 2021. Similar to Betts last Friday, it can be advantageous to utilize upper echelon players when they are going through a “slump.”
At the site minimum, Tyrone Taylor is interesting to me. He is only getting more and more opportunities, as he is generally a top-3 hitter in the Milwaukee Brewers’ lineup that is still missing Christian Yelich. I do think this is a lower-scoring game, but at such a low cost Taylor can get to value quickly.