The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Wednesday features a split slate: The eight-game early slate starts at 12:10 p.m. ET, while the four-game main slate begins at 7:05 p.m. ET.
Pitchers
Studs
High-end options are extremely thin Wednesday, with just two pitchers between the early slate and main slate priced at $9,500 or more on FanDuel:
- Trevor Bauer (R) $11,500, CLE vs. PIT — J. Taillon (R)
- Charlie Morton (R) $9,500, HOU @ COL — J. Gray (R)
On the early slate, Bauer is $2,700 more expensive than the second-highest priced pitcher, and he has a brutal matchup against a projected Pirates lineup that possesses a 19.9% strikeout rate over the past 12 months against right-handed pitching. That probably explains his subpar 6.8 K Prediction, despite a strong 11.31 SO/9 from Bauer over that same time period. That said, Vegas is on the Indians’ side at home, as they are sizeable -182 moneyline favorites, and the Pirates are implied for just 3.4 runs.
If you’re playing the all-day slate, Bauer is a reasonable guaranteed prize pool play since most players will likely gravitate toward some of the chalkier mid-range pitchers on the main slate. This matchup obviously comes with risk — the Pirates rank 10th in weighted runs created plus (wRC+) against right-handed pitching this season (FanGraphs) — but Bauer’s salary is much more reasonable on FanDuel with a 95% Bargain Rating.
Morton is an interesting option. He’s the most expensive pitcher on FanDuel, but at Coors Field, he has been priced down significantly on DraftKings. In contrast to Bauer, the matchup has a ton of strikeout-weighted upside, as the projected Rockies lineup owns a pathetic 30.5% strikeout rate to right-handed pitching. Both Nolan Arenado and Ian Desmond are on the wrong side of their drastic batting splits, but in general, the Rockies underperform against right-handed pitching, ranking 28th in wRC+. Further, Morton will undoubtedly go under-owned due to his price and the negative park shift, despite sporting an impressive 8.3 K Prediction on a short slate. Per our Trends tool, pitchers at Coors Field with comparable K Predictions are nearly unprecedented, but the few have performed above their salary-based expectation with a +1.35 DraftKings Plus/Minus and 61.5% Consistency Rating.
Values
On the early slate, Corey Oswalt could be in play at just $5,500 on DraftKings as a pure value play. The Mets are -120 moneyline favorites, and the Padres 4.0 run implied total is third-lowest on the slate. The matchup is also appealing, as San Diego’s projected lineup has a 27.3% strikeout rate and .290 wOBA to right-handed pitching over the past year. In his last start, Oswalt allowed just two hits over five innings, with an insane batted ball distance allowed of 148 feet, exit velocity of 79 mph, and 13% hard-hit rate.
On a main slate with very little value, Edwin Jackson may be somewhat palatable at $7,600 on FanDuel. It’s a strong matchup against a Rangers team with a 29.0% strikeout rate to right-handed pitching over the past year, but unfortunately, Jackson isn’t a huge ceiling guy with only a 7.62 SO/9 over that same time period. The Athletics are -123 moneyline favorites, but Texas is also implied for the second-most runs on the slate so he may be better suited for guaranteed prize pools.
Fastballs
Jack Flaherty: He costs just $7,400 on FanDuel with a 93% Bargain Rating on the early slate. He has an impressive 10.47 SO/9 over the past year, sporting a healthy 7.6 K Prediction against the Reds, who own an above-average strikeout rate (25.7%) over the past 12 months. The opponent-implied total of 4.6 runs is scary, but Flaherty has been absolutely dealing over his past two starts, yielding an immaculate 159-foot recent batted ball distance, 85-mph exit velocity, and 10% hard-hit rate.
Robbie Ray: On the early slate, he has a brutal matchup against the Cubs, who rank 6th in wRC+ against lefties this season and have a projected lineup with a 22.9% strikeout rate and .330 wOBA splits over the past year. He has allowed a 223-foot batted ball distance and 45% hard-hit rate over his last two starts. That said, Ray’s 9.3 K Prediction is the highest mark of the day, so he carries contrarian upside in GPPs, despite the tough matchup and his subpar Statcast data.
Tyler Skaggs: The Angels lead the main slate as -212 moneyline favorites and the White Sox own a slate-low 3.5 implied run total. Skaggs could be chalky since he’s cheap, but eating his ownership may be warranted given his -47 distance differential allowed over his past two starts and slate-high +46 Batted Ball Luck.
David Price: He’s the wildcard among today’s pitchers. He’s been impressive of late, owning an average Plus/Minus of +4.48 and 70.0% Consistency Rating on FanDuel over his past 10 starts. Facing the Orioles, Price has arguably the most strikeout upside — outside of Morton — on the main slate. Their projected lineup has struck out in 27.1% of at-bats against lefties over the past 12 months, and Price’s 6.6 K Prediction is second-highest. The only thing holding him back from being considered among today’s top mid-range options is his recent Statcast data, particularly his hard-hit differential of +7 percentage points and 93-mph exit velocity.
Notable Stacks
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS lineups. Today’s top five-man DraftKings stack (per the CSURAM88 Model) belongs to the St. Louis Cardinals, who lead the early slate with an implied 5.0 runs:
- Matt Carpenter (L)
- Yadier Molina (R)
- Paul DeJong (R)
- Marcell Ozuna (R)
- Jose Martinez (R)
Total Salary: $21,300
Despite going 0-5 yesterday, Carpenter is hitting as well as anyone in the entire league recently, and he’s also crushed righties over the past 12 months to the tune of a .392 wOBA and .276 isolated power (ISO). Additionally, Carpenter’s Statcast data over the past 15 days is NSFW with a 294-foot average distance, 100-mph exit velocity, and 62% fly-ball and hard-hit rates, all of which are insanely positive differentials when compared to his 12-month averages.
The top four-man FanDuel stacks in the Batted Ball Model belongs to the Oakland Athletics, who are implied for a slate-leading 6.0 runs on the main slate and own the second-highest Team Value Rating:
- Marcus Semien (R)
- Chad Pinder (R)
- Jed Lowrie (S)
- Khris Davis (R)
Total Salary: $13,800
The Athletics could be chalky, but they also have the pleasure of facing off against Rangers lefty Martin Perez, who owns a putrid 1.68 WHOP and 1.65 HR/9 over the past year.
The Athletics are ninth in wRC+ against left-handed pitching, and their projected lineup provides a strong .339 wOBA over the past 12 months. The player who is most likely to abuse Perez is probably Davis. In the past 15 days he sports an amazing 274-foot batted ball distance, 97-mph exit velocity, and 63% hard-hit rate. He leads the slate in FanDuel Pro Trends. Pinder’s .368 wOBA is also appealing with a 93% Bargain Rating, and his 53% Consistency Rating over the past month leads this stack.
Other Batters
On the early slate, there are four teams with implied run totals of at least 4.7. One of those is the Indians (5.0). Third baseman Jose Ramirez should lead the way for a Cleveland lineup that has a massive .337 wOBA against right-handed pitching. Ramirez is also on the right side of his batting splits with a .422 wOBA and .323 ISO, with impressive recent Statcast differentials of +14 feet, +3 mph, and +13 percentage points.
The Red Sox’s 5.1 implied run total is just outside the top tier on the main slate today, but both Mookie Betts and Andrew Benintendi will still likely be popular stacking options in the No. 1 and 2 spots, respectively, against Dylan Bundy and the Orioles. It’s a sublime matchup for Boston bats against Bundy, as he’s been getting absolutely crushed over his past two starts, surrendering a batted ball distance of 246 feet, exit velocity of 94 mph, and 61% fly-ball rate. His 45% hard-hit rate allowed over that same span also is the worst in the slate.
Mike Trout has an excellent matchup against White Sox pitcher James Shields. Trout has obliterated right-handed pitchers over the 12 months, owning an elite .448 wOBA and .301 ISO. Further, he’s generating tons of hard contact over the past 15 days with a ridiculous 98 mph exit velocity and 56% hard-hit rate. Hitters with comparable batted-ball data featured in games with similar implied run totals (5.1) have averaged a +1.46 FanDuel Plus/Minus. Trout currently leads the main slate with a 41.7-point projected ceiling on FanDuel. On the same team, Kole Calhoun may be the strongest route to saving salary at only $2,900, leading off and sporting elite Statcast data in his own right, highlighted by a distance differential of +43 feet.
Good luck, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more in-depth MLB analysis.
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Pictured above: Mike Trout
Photo credit: Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports
