Thursday’s main slate features seven games, starting at 7:05 pm ET. We will be using Bales Model to highlight some pitchers and batters to consider when completing your lineups.
Weather is a major concern in the Dodgers-Nationals game today. There’s a 70% chance of precipitation and 89% humidity. Be sure to check the status of this game before lock.
The four pitchers projected to score the most fantasy points today are:
Jacob deGrom (R)
Corbin Burnes (R)
Ian Anderson (R)
Framber Valdez (L)
It’s no surprise that the Bales Model projects Jacob deGrom to be the highest-rated pitcher on tonight’s slate.
The New York Mets right-hander pitcher has a 7-2 record, MLB-leading 0.69 ERA, and has struck out 122 opposing batters. After five consecutive starts in which deGrom did not allow a run, he was charged with two earned runs last time out.
Today, deGrom will face the Atlanta Braves, who are projected to have the lowest implied runs total on the slate (3.1 runs). The weather is worth mentioning here, as current projections state a possible chance of light rain.
The second highest-rated pitcher today on the Bales Model for both DraftKings and FanDuel is Milwaukee’s Corbin Burnes.
The Brewers are the hottest team in baseball, as they are currently on an eight-game winning streak in which they have outscored their opponents, 59-22.
Burnes has been dominant on the mound this season, but he could use some added run support. In 74.2 innings pitched, Burnes has struck out 115 batters, owns an ERA of 2.53 but only a 3-4 record. Tonight, he will be facing the Pittsburgh Pirates, who are sit 18 games back from the Brewers in the National League Central. Pro Trends considers Burnes a 90% bargain on DraftKings today.
Atlanta’s Ian Anderson has been solid recently, putting up some nice fantasy numbers. Anderson is priced at his lowest point all season on DraftKings, which adds to the reason he’s considered an 89% bargain by Pro Trends. In his last five starts, Anderson allowed four, zero, four, zero, and three earned runs, respectively.
If this trend continues, he might be in for another big fantasy performance. Tonight, Anderson will be pitching against the Mets in what figures to be a low-scoring game. While the Braves are projected for the lowest implied runs total, the Mets are fourth-lowest (3.9) out of 14 teams.
Framber Valdez has started only six games in his 2021 campaign, but he has been electric while on the mound. In 38.1 innings pitched, Valdez has struck out 35 batters and put up an ERA of 2.11 to go along with a 4-1 record.
He took his first loss of the season in his last start against the Tigers. Although he was credited with a quality start in his last five games, Valdez has allowed a run in each, including one home run each of the last three. Hoping to get back on track and in the win column, Valdez will throw against the Indians, who have the sixth-worst team batting average in MLB (.228).
If you’re looking to save salary to spend up for deGrom, Cleveland’s J.C. Mejia may be the pitcher you’re looking for.
Although he has struggled most of the season, Mejia had his best output last start. Last time on the mound against the Minnesota Twins, he allowed only one run on four hits in six innings. Hoping to build off his strong performance last game, Mejia will pitch against the Houston Astros today. The Bales Model considers Mejia the second-best pitching option when looking at projected points/salary.
Today’s top projected points stack comes to you from the St. Louis Cardinals, who are-123 favorites against the Colorado Rockies at Coors Field:
- Dylan Carlson (S)
- Paul Goldschmidt (R)
- Nolan Arenado (R)
- Tyler O’Neill (R)
The Cardinals have the highest projected implied runs total on the slate (5.8 runs) and are hoping to benefit from playing at Coors Field.
The over/under being offered by most sportsbooks at this time is 11 in what figures to be the highest-scoring game on the slate. Another reason to consider this stack is the highly anticipated return of Nolan Arenado to Coors Field. On FanDuel, this stack will cost you $15.4K in salary and is projected for a combined 52.8 fantasy points.
The highest floor not in the Cardinals-Rockies game according to the Bales Model is Cincinnati’s Nick Castellanos. Castellanos currently leads all of MLB in batting average (.346), doubles (27), and hits (102).
The batter projected to have the highest ceiling on the slate for both DraftKings and FanDuel per the Bales Model is Trevor Story. Although Story has struggled overall this season, his bat seems to be heating up along with the temperature. In his last 10 games, Story has four home runs, 10 RBIs, and 12 hits.
Lastly, here’s a handful of batters that are projected for high fantasy points/salary:
- Kevin Newman (PIT)
- Albert Pujols (LAD)
- Pavin Smith (ARI)
- Chris Taylor (LAD)
- Omar Narvaez (MIL)
Photo Credit: Rich Schultz/Getty Images.
Pictured: Jacob deGrom.