No rest for the wicked with a heavy, 10-game main slate Monday night. Lock is at 7:05 p.m. ET.
Pitchers
The elite-priced tier on FanDuel is smaller than expected considering the number of games. Not a good sign for diversity in your player pool.
- Tyler Glasnow (R) $10,800, TB @ LAA
- Walker Buehler (R) $10,200, LAD @ CHC
- Aaron Civale (R) $9,500, CLE @ KC
- Steven Matz (L) $9,300, TOR @ OAK
It is not too often that every top option is pitching on the road. Three of them are pitching as road favorites, a bit of a red flag.
Not an ideal situation for Tyler Glasnow. The Los Angeles Angels have the second-best offense according to Offensive WAR and have the third-best slugging percentage one month into the season. The Angels also make a lot of contact as one of the few teams that does not walk or strike out often. Outside of expected BABIP regression, Glasnow has pitched like a top-10 starter and has nearly a 3-to-1 strikeout-to-hit ratio. Glasnow will have to find a way to miss Angels bats to come out with a win. I expect him to rack up counting stats because his fantasy points floor on FanDuel this season is 33.
Walker Buehler has the best matchup on paper but faces weather concerns. There is a 64 percent chance of rain and an expected temperature of 64 degrees at first pitch. On the plus side, Buehler gets a Cubs lineup that could be without Ian Happ and Willson Contreras. Happ left Sunday’s game with a potential concussion and rib injury, and Contreras has missed the last two games with right thigh tightness. If those two are out, the Cubs would be missing two of their better power hitters, and the Cubs are much better hitting at home than on the road. Buehler is not immune to the longball, allowing 1.11 per nine innings and allowing a 44.3 Hard Hit Percentage (Hard%) on balls in play, six percent higher than his career average.
Aaron Civale will also face a team that appreciates home cooking. The Kansas City Royals are top 10 against righties at home in average, slugging, on-base percentage, OPS, wRC+, strikeout rate, flyball percentage, groundball-to-flyball ratio, and soft contact percentage. Civale has raised his groundball percentage to 52.8 percent and will need his slider and new split-finger fastball to continue to induce hits on the ground. The 25-year old will more than likely be Cleveland’s best chance at a road win in this series.
Steven Matz will look to rebound in Oakland against an Athletics lineup that has been better against righties than lefties. His success has come from a return to a near 50/50 GB/FB ratio and his best Hard% since his rookie season. I would prefer him in a rebound spot against majority of the league, but not Oakland.
Value
Kenta Maeda is the top rated pitcher on FanDuel and DraftKings according to the Bales Model. The veteran has been nothing short of awful and has been getting hit harder this season than at any point in his career. His groundball rate peaked last season, which coincided with his best overall performance since coming to America. The Texas Rangers coming to Minnesota could cure what ails him in a game with an expected temperature of 59 degrees. His offense has also turned on the heat and is top five in offense and BsR, FanGraphs’ baserunning metric. This will be Maeda’s second start at home, and he was effectively wild but managed to only allow one earned run in 4 1/3 innings pitched his first time out. He has a 94% Bargain Rating, seven Pro Trends, and the highest Projected Plus/Minus on FanDuel.
Fastballs
Shohei Ohtani is questionable to start tonight after getting hit by a pitch on his throwing elbow Sunday. He was already a longshot for potentially two starts this week and this could push him back a few days and possibly cause him to not be in the lineup.
Miguel Diaz has not pitched in the majors since 2019, and when he did, he was #NotGreat. He has three starts and 44 appearances, and despite the ugly peripherals, he had a lower xERA and xFIP than his actual ERA. His is the cheapest pitcher on the slate, has six Pro Trends on FanDuel, and is as true a punt there is.
Notable Stack
The home/road split champs are the top stack on FanDuel:
- C.J. Cron (R)
- Ryan McMahon (L)
- Trevor Story (R)
- Charlie Blackmon (L)
Total Salary: $14,300
Trevor Story appears to have avoided injury disaster after getting hit in the hand by a pitch Sunday night. He is still day-to-day and not a lock for tonight. Raimel Tapia is my guy and the top-rated hitter on both platforms. C.J. Cron is a player I have written about before and has put his slow start to 2021 in the rearview mirror. The Rockies have the highest projected team total (5.2) and welcome the San Francisco Giants to Denver.
Other Hitters
Alex Dickerson has not replicated his previous success as a Giant, but he does have a great track record against Rockies starter Germán Márquez. He is 6-for-11 with three doubles, two walks, and two RBI.
Mitch Haniger has a 77% Bargain Rating and gets the Baltimore Orioles in Seattle. He went 5-for-16 against them in the middle of April. He had an RBI in each of their four games and is currently riding a three-game RBI streak.
The top players on the main slate based on the Bales Model Consistency metric are Nick Maton (DraftKings) and Corey Seager (FanDuel). Maton has seen his salary increase $500 but is still only $3,000 on DraftKings. Seager has seen his salary drop $900 on FanDuel, but does have the weather concerns in Chicago.
Cleveland has an 86 Team Value Rating on FanDuel, but runs into a pitcher making his major league debut. Daniel Lynch is the No. 2 prospect in the Royals’ system and could flash or flop in his debut. Understand the risk if you roster Cleveland batters.
Photo Credit: Mike Stobe/Getty Images
Pictured: Tyler Glasnow
