Monday’s three-game slate features an MLB debut and a four-hour gap in between the start of the first two games. The main slate locks at 5:10 p.m. ET.
With only three games it is easier to break down each pitcher based on their rank in the Bales Model on FanDuel.
Dylan Bundy is the top-rated pitcher on FanDuel as the second-lowest priced pitcher. He rates second on DraftKings and is priced third. The Angels host the Kansas City Royals. The Royals outscored the Twins in their previous series 19-12 but lost two of three games. Kansas City is the definition of average offense, including against right-handed pitching on the road. Outside of leading baseball in Medium Hit percentage (Med%), the Royals rank between 14 and 24 in major hitting categories in road games against righties. Bundy has a career-high Home Run-to-Flyball (HR/FB) rate and career-low Left On Base percentage (LOB%), which is why his 6.49 ERA is multiple runs higher than his expected stats.
Nick Pivetta is the top-ranked pitcher on DraftKings in a makeup game against the visiting Miami Marlins. The Marlins are one of the five worst road offenses against righties using Weighted Runs Created Plus (wRC+) and have a top-five strikeout rate. Pivetta’s ERA was two runs higher in May than March/April, but part of the rise was expected regression and a drop in walks. The cutdown has brought his ERA closer to his expected numbers, including an Expected ERA (xERA) that is 0.08 below his 3.77 actual ERA.
Adbert Alzolay allowed one run on three hits with seven strikeouts over five innings last week against the San Diego Padres. San Diego has a 103 wRC+ at home against righties opposed to a 93 wRC+ on the road. The offense also struck out in 30 percent of its at-bats against Alzolay, opposed to its season average of 21.3%. The Cubs’ pitcher could be in line for regression of counting stats and is also coming off his three best outings of the season according to Game Score (GSv2).
Ryan Weathers allowed four runs to the Cubs in five innings last week, his worst run total of the season. That is skewed because he has only logged two five-inning starts and has been a bridge pitcher due to so many Padres pitching injuries. He is $1,400 cheaper on DraftKings (90% Bargain Rating) and the Cubs have the lowest projected run total of the six teams playing. Weathers leads the position in Pro Trends.
Pablo López was a late scratch for the Marlins against the Red Sox. Miami will have a bullpen day and thus have no viable options.
Jackson Kowar makes his major league debut for the Royals in Los Angeles. The 2018 33rd-overall pick had a 0.85 ERA, zero home runs, and 41:10 K/BB in 31 2/3 innings pitched. He did also sport a .265 BABIP and elite 90% LOB%. The Angels have a top-10 offense at home and a 109 wRC+ against right-handers. Not ideal for Kowar, but a five-plus inning start would be a great way to start his career.
Welcome to the big leagues, rookie:
- Jared Walsh (L)
- Anthony Rendon (R)
- Justin Upton (R)
- Shohei Ohtani (L)
Total Salary: $14,400
All four rank as top-10 hitters on DraftKings, while Upton and Rendon do so on FanDuel. The Angels are projected to score five runs, 0.5 runs more than what they were projected when lines opened for the game.
Alex Verdugo leads all batters with eight Pro Trends on DraftKings. He is a top-three rated hitter on both platforms as well. He comes into today with a four-game hitting streak that includes one double, one home run and three walks.
Andrew Benintendi is 11-for-32 against Dylan Bundy with one home run and 3:6 K/BB ratio.
Corey Dickerson is 4-for-7 with one home run, one walk and zero strikeouts against Pivetta. He is only $2,200 on FanDuel.
Despite going 0-for-7 the last two games, Salvador Perez finished last week with four home runs and seven RBI. He is the most expensive catcher on both sites.
Jesús Aguilar is the top-rated player on FanDuel’s C/1B hybrid position. He finished last week with three home runs and had a hit in four of five starts.
Photo Credit: Sean M. Haffey/Getty Images
Pictured: Dylan Bundy