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MLB DFS 4/8/16 Slate Breakdown

Let’s get to it.

Pitchers

Jacob deGrom, NYM

When pitchers were priced at $12K-plus and included at least 10 Pro Trends last season, they produced a Plus/Minus of +5.44. Projected to allow the fewest opponent runs, there is no greater cash option than deGrom in today’s slate.

Francisco Liriano, PIT

Cincinnati recorded a bottom-three hard-hit percentage against left-handed pitching last season. Although his Opening Day performance of 32.7 DraftKings points is sure to be chased by many, Liriano’s strikeouts per nine of 10.2 remains third-highest in today’s slate. His salary also includes a $400 discount at FanDuel.

Jaime Garcia, STL

If looking to stray away from some of the pricier options at his position, Garcia is quietly projected to allow the second-fewest opponent runs of any pitcher today. It bodes well that the Braves were notably treacherous when opposing left-handers last season — look no further than their 77 wRC+ and .107 ISO versus said handedness. With an average distance of 181 feet (shortest among starting pitchers today) traveled by batted balls over the last 12 months, Garcia could even be considered a fringe cash play.

Pitchers to Exploit

Scott Feldman, HOU

Recording the fewest SO/9 among pitchers in this slate, the Brewers have enough firepower between their 2-5 hitters (we’ll discuss them in a moment) to absolutely dismantle Feldman in a hitter-friendly park.

John Danks, CWS

Allowing an average air time of 3.26 (tied for third-highest among pitchers) over the last year, the Indians have enough strong hitters against lefties that a stack in tournaments is certainly warranted. That likely begins and ends with Francisco Lindor, Mike Napoli, and Carlos Santana (who hit 3-4-5 in their last matchup against a lefty).

Jordan Lyles, COL

Yes, I realize the Padres have yet to touch homeplate, but that’s all the more reason to have tournament exposure. Lyles is also a terrific opponent to face as all of Matt Kemp, Wil Myers, and Yangervis Solarte (projected to hit 3-4-5) have a higher ISO against right-handed pitching.

C

Jonathan Lucroy, MIL

Recording three hits in their opening series versus the Giants, Lucroy is notably one to consistently reach base (as shown by his .325 wOBA against right-handed pitching last season). For this slate, however, he receives an additional bump in consideration as he’s expected to hit cleanup (between Ryan Braun and Chris Carter) in that aforementioned Brewers stack.

Miguel Montero, CHC

With Kyle Schwarber expected to sit following his collision with Dexter Fowler last night, note Montero’s slugging percentage of .447 against lefties. The Cubs are also projected to score the second-most runs in today’s slate.

1B

Chris Carter, MIL

Although more of a tournament play given his whopping strikeout percentage of 35.6% to right-handers last season, note Carter’s ISO of .240. With a fly-ball percentage greater than any other first baseman, he’s a terrific upside play (and is expected to follow Lucroy in their batting order).

Mike Napoli, CLE

Napoli’s wOBA and ISO Difference of .174/.131 both qualify as second-highest among first basemen. His .563 slugging percentage against lefties is a viable option in cash and tournaments alike.

2B

Scooter Gennett, MIL

Projected to hit second for the Brewers, Gennett’s wOBA Difference of .103 remains second-highest at his position.

3B

Yangervis Solarte, SD

Averaging the fewest strikeouts per at-bat among third basemen, Solarte remains in a terrific spot if only because he’s projected to hit fifth for San Diego.

Kyle Seager, SEA

Slugging .531 against lefties, Seager was much better against said handedness last season despite a higher K%. With an ISO of .214, he’s as strong of a cash option as any among third base. Additionally, Seager has exceeded salary-based expectations in every game this season.

SS

Francisco Lindor, CLE

Though we have only 78 at-bats to base these numbers on, Lindor has a .528 slugging percentage against left-handers in his young career. Projected to hit third (and in front of Napoli) for the Indians, Lindor is considered an elite cash option in this slate.

Brad Miller, TB

Though a horrid wRC+ of 42 against left-handed pitching, Miller recorded a .348 wOBA against righties last year. With an ISO Difference of .175, he’s considered an alternative option at FanDuel, where he includes a Bargain Rating of 93%.

OF

Rajai Davis, CLE

Expected to bat leadoff for the Indians, Davis’ Bargain Rating of 70% at FanDuel makes him one of the more valuable players at his position. Though his K% against lefties has a difference of 8.9%, his ISO of .216 keeps Davis as a viable tournament option.

Dexter Fowler, CHC

Averaging 24 FanDuel points to open the year, Fowler has actually been better against left-handed pitching throughout his career. Now slated to oppose a lefty in a hitter-friendly park, Fowler is considered an absolute steal at FanDuel, where our models show him with a Bargain Rating of 97%.

Nelson Cruz, SEA

Although the wind is currently blowing in at Safeco, note Cruz’s position-high slugging percentage of .682. His 1.107 OPS against lefties also led the league in 2015.

Weather Watch

Keep a close eye on the Bay Area today as Dodgers-Giants has the highest chance of precipitation (65%) in this entire slate.

Two Things I Like Or Don’t Like

Let’s All Welcome the Rockies Back to Coors Field

Projected to score the most runs in this slate, I didn’t even bother writing any Rockies up. Now back at home, they’re clearly the strongest (and most obvious) cash stack tonight. Charlie Blackmon. Trevor Story. Nolan Arenado. Carlos Gonzalez. Ryan Raburn. Nick Hundley. They’re all legitimately viable. If stacking their 1-4, however, unique exposure elsewhere (in tournaments) will absolutely be required.

Robinson CaNO

Although on pace to shatter every home run record, our models show Cano with an ISO Difference of -.032. Likely to have the highest exposure among second basemen in tournaments, he’s certainly worth fading tonight.

Good luck!

Let’s get to it.

Pitchers

Jacob deGrom, NYM

When pitchers were priced at $12K-plus and included at least 10 Pro Trends last season, they produced a Plus/Minus of +5.44. Projected to allow the fewest opponent runs, there is no greater cash option than deGrom in today’s slate.

Francisco Liriano, PIT

Cincinnati recorded a bottom-three hard-hit percentage against left-handed pitching last season. Although his Opening Day performance of 32.7 DraftKings points is sure to be chased by many, Liriano’s strikeouts per nine of 10.2 remains third-highest in today’s slate. His salary also includes a $400 discount at FanDuel.

Jaime Garcia, STL

If looking to stray away from some of the pricier options at his position, Garcia is quietly projected to allow the second-fewest opponent runs of any pitcher today. It bodes well that the Braves were notably treacherous when opposing left-handers last season — look no further than their 77 wRC+ and .107 ISO versus said handedness. With an average distance of 181 feet (shortest among starting pitchers today) traveled by batted balls over the last 12 months, Garcia could even be considered a fringe cash play.

Pitchers to Exploit

Scott Feldman, HOU

Recording the fewest SO/9 among pitchers in this slate, the Brewers have enough firepower between their 2-5 hitters (we’ll discuss them in a moment) to absolutely dismantle Feldman in a hitter-friendly park.

John Danks, CWS

Allowing an average air time of 3.26 (tied for third-highest among pitchers) over the last year, the Indians have enough strong hitters against lefties that a stack in tournaments is certainly warranted. That likely begins and ends with Francisco Lindor, Mike Napoli, and Carlos Santana (who hit 3-4-5 in their last matchup against a lefty).

Jordan Lyles, COL

Yes, I realize the Padres have yet to touch homeplate, but that’s all the more reason to have tournament exposure. Lyles is also a terrific opponent to face as all of Matt Kemp, Wil Myers, and Yangervis Solarte (projected to hit 3-4-5) have a higher ISO against right-handed pitching.

C

Jonathan Lucroy, MIL

Recording three hits in their opening series versus the Giants, Lucroy is notably one to consistently reach base (as shown by his .325 wOBA against right-handed pitching last season). For this slate, however, he receives an additional bump in consideration as he’s expected to hit cleanup (between Ryan Braun and Chris Carter) in that aforementioned Brewers stack.

Miguel Montero, CHC

With Kyle Schwarber expected to sit following his collision with Dexter Fowler last night, note Montero’s slugging percentage of .447 against lefties. The Cubs are also projected to score the second-most runs in today’s slate.

1B

Chris Carter, MIL

Although more of a tournament play given his whopping strikeout percentage of 35.6% to right-handers last season, note Carter’s ISO of .240. With a fly-ball percentage greater than any other first baseman, he’s a terrific upside play (and is expected to follow Lucroy in their batting order).

Mike Napoli, CLE

Napoli’s wOBA and ISO Difference of .174/.131 both qualify as second-highest among first basemen. His .563 slugging percentage against lefties is a viable option in cash and tournaments alike.

2B

Scooter Gennett, MIL

Projected to hit second for the Brewers, Gennett’s wOBA Difference of .103 remains second-highest at his position.

3B

Yangervis Solarte, SD

Averaging the fewest strikeouts per at-bat among third basemen, Solarte remains in a terrific spot if only because he’s projected to hit fifth for San Diego.

Kyle Seager, SEA

Slugging .531 against lefties, Seager was much better against said handedness last season despite a higher K%. With an ISO of .214, he’s as strong of a cash option as any among third base. Additionally, Seager has exceeded salary-based expectations in every game this season.

SS

Francisco Lindor, CLE

Though we have only 78 at-bats to base these numbers on, Lindor has a .528 slugging percentage against left-handers in his young career. Projected to hit third (and in front of Napoli) for the Indians, Lindor is considered an elite cash option in this slate.

Brad Miller, TB

Though a horrid wRC+ of 42 against left-handed pitching, Miller recorded a .348 wOBA against righties last year. With an ISO Difference of .175, he’s considered an alternative option at FanDuel, where he includes a Bargain Rating of 93%.

OF

Rajai Davis, CLE

Expected to bat leadoff for the Indians, Davis’ Bargain Rating of 70% at FanDuel makes him one of the more valuable players at his position. Though his K% against lefties has a difference of 8.9%, his ISO of .216 keeps Davis as a viable tournament option.

Dexter Fowler, CHC

Averaging 24 FanDuel points to open the year, Fowler has actually been better against left-handed pitching throughout his career. Now slated to oppose a lefty in a hitter-friendly park, Fowler is considered an absolute steal at FanDuel, where our models show him with a Bargain Rating of 97%.

Nelson Cruz, SEA

Although the wind is currently blowing in at Safeco, note Cruz’s position-high slugging percentage of .682. His 1.107 OPS against lefties also led the league in 2015.

Weather Watch

Keep a close eye on the Bay Area today as Dodgers-Giants has the highest chance of precipitation (65%) in this entire slate.

Two Things I Like Or Don’t Like

Let’s All Welcome the Rockies Back to Coors Field

Projected to score the most runs in this slate, I didn’t even bother writing any Rockies up. Now back at home, they’re clearly the strongest (and most obvious) cash stack tonight. Charlie Blackmon. Trevor Story. Nolan Arenado. Carlos Gonzalez. Ryan Raburn. Nick Hundley. They’re all legitimately viable. If stacking their 1-4, however, unique exposure elsewhere (in tournaments) will absolutely be required.

Robinson CaNO

Although on pace to shatter every home run record, our models show Cano with an ISO Difference of -.032. Likely to have the highest exposure among second basemen in tournaments, he’s certainly worth fading tonight.

Good luck!