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MLB DFS 4/6/16 Slate Breakdown

Let’s do this.

Pitchers

Stephen Strasburg, WAS

Though his peripherals — 11.16 strikeouts per nine, the fewest-projected opponent runs, the second-highest percentage of moneyline bets — make him the strongest of cash plays, a 72% chance of rain also means (or should, anyways) Strasburg will have limited ownership in tournaments. Without any thunder expected, though, I wouldn’t be too concerned with precipitation. Ron Kulpa, who fortuitously has the second-highest Plus/Minus among umpires, will also be behind the plate in Atlanta.

Kenta Maeda, LAD

With a 97% Bargain Rating at FanDuel, Maeda comes with a discount across sites. Averaging only 1.9 walks per nine innings in Japan, I worry less about his velocity (which, by the way, isn’t good) and lean more towards the fact that he’s slated to take the mound in a pitcher-friendly park. It also bodes well that the Padres, who have yet to score a single run this season, have never seen Maeda’s arsenal (outside of his start at the World Baseball Classic).

1B

David Ortiz, BOS

It’s no secret that Vegas lines are a crutch to most at this time, which is why Ortiz is in a terrific tournament spot. Although the Red Sox are projected to score only 3.3 runs, Ortiz has the highest slugging percentage (.622) of anyone at first base. Our models also show the wind currently blowing out in Cleveland.

Mark Teixeira, NYY

Teixeira’s .343 ISO (and ISO difference of .148) against right-handed pitching includes an incredible Bargain Rating of 98% at FanDuel. Collin McHugh has allowed an exit velocity of only 88 mph over the last 12 months, but Teixeira’s fly-ball percentage of 42% in that span is sure to, at the least, combat it.

2B

Logan Forsythe, TB

Projected to bat leadoff for the Rays this afternoon, Forsythe should be considered an elite option at second base — his slugging percentage of .599 qualifies as the highest of his position. His FB% of 40% is also second-highest among all second basemen today.

Jed Lowrie, OAK

As pointed out yesterday, Lowrie has been known to destroy left-handed pitching. Though a 3B/SS combo at DraftKings, Lowrie’s Bargain Rating of 82% at FanDuel (where he’s listed at second base) is where we’re targeting him. Note his average distance of 226 feet traveled by a batted ball over the last 12 months qualifies as the longest of his position.

3B

Josh Donaldson, TOR

Additionally pointed out yesterday, Josh Donaldson remains mandatory when facing lefties. Note his slugging and ISO difference of .661/.120 against said handedness, as opposed to his slugging percentage of .553 against righties.

Adrian Beltre, TEX

Projected to score the most runs of any team (4.8) today, Beltre includes a Bargain Rating of 95% at FanDuel despite his wOBA difference of .087.

Matt Carpenter, STL

With an 86% Bargain Rating at DraftKings, note Carpenter’s average batted-ball distance of 242 feet is actually 19 feet further than the next closest at his position (Luis Valbuena). His exit velocity of 94 mph also stands atop his position.

SS

Corey Seager, LAD

Featuring an ISO difference of .199, Seager also benefits from the third-highest batted-ball distance among shortstops. His Plus/Minus of +2.7 trails only Trevor Story out of the gates at their position.

OF

Bryce Harper, WAS

With the wind in Atlanta blowing out, Harper’s slugging percentage of .698 against righties should be considered the top option among outfielders.

Adam Duvall, PHI

Duvall’s average batted-ball distance of 230 in the past 12 months is equivalent to Jose Bautista’s. With a 90% Bargain Rating at FanDuel, his ISO difference of .236 can easily be exploited.

David Peralta, ARI

Tied with the highest Pro Trends among outfielders, Peralta’s wOBA difference of .108 is yet again a top option as the Diamondbacks are tied with the Rangers to score the most projected runs of this slate.

Weather Watch

There’s a lot of possible precipitation today as Giants-Brewers (69% chance of rain, though the latter could opt to close their roof), Red Sox-Indians (58%), Cardinals-Pirates (54%), Nationals-Braves (72%), and Phillies-Reds (78%) are expected to receive light showers at some point throughout.

Two Things I Like or Don’t Like

Precipitation Isn’t Always a Red Flag

In fact, with no lightning or thunder around, that’s all the more reason to exploit the above matchups in tournaments. Most will attempt to avoid them altogether; all the while, targeting high-upside guys with low ownership remains the most valuable approach.

You Can Take Bud Norris Out of Camden Yards, But…

Norris’ average of 1.63 home runs per nine innings isn’t likely to just disappear. Get your stack on.

Good luck!

YOU MAY ALSO LIKE

No related posts.

Let’s do this.

Pitchers

Stephen Strasburg, WAS

Though his peripherals — 11.16 strikeouts per nine, the fewest-projected opponent runs, the second-highest percentage of moneyline bets — make him the strongest of cash plays, a 72% chance of rain also means (or should, anyways) Strasburg will have limited ownership in tournaments. Without any thunder expected, though, I wouldn’t be too concerned with precipitation. Ron Kulpa, who fortuitously has the second-highest Plus/Minus among umpires, will also be behind the plate in Atlanta.

Kenta Maeda, LAD

With a 97% Bargain Rating at FanDuel, Maeda comes with a discount across sites. Averaging only 1.9 walks per nine innings in Japan, I worry less about his velocity (which, by the way, isn’t good) and lean more towards the fact that he’s slated to take the mound in a pitcher-friendly park. It also bodes well that the Padres, who have yet to score a single run this season, have never seen Maeda’s arsenal (outside of his start at the World Baseball Classic).

1B

David Ortiz, BOS

It’s no secret that Vegas lines are a crutch to most at this time, which is why Ortiz is in a terrific tournament spot. Although the Red Sox are projected to score only 3.3 runs, Ortiz has the highest slugging percentage (.622) of anyone at first base. Our models also show the wind currently blowing out in Cleveland.

Mark Teixeira, NYY

Teixeira’s .343 ISO (and ISO difference of .148) against right-handed pitching includes an incredible Bargain Rating of 98% at FanDuel. Collin McHugh has allowed an exit velocity of only 88 mph over the last 12 months, but Teixeira’s fly-ball percentage of 42% in that span is sure to, at the least, combat it.

2B

Logan Forsythe, TB

Projected to bat leadoff for the Rays this afternoon, Forsythe should be considered an elite option at second base — his slugging percentage of .599 qualifies as the highest of his position. His FB% of 40% is also second-highest among all second basemen today.

Jed Lowrie, OAK

As pointed out yesterday, Lowrie has been known to destroy left-handed pitching. Though a 3B/SS combo at DraftKings, Lowrie’s Bargain Rating of 82% at FanDuel (where he’s listed at second base) is where we’re targeting him. Note his average distance of 226 feet traveled by a batted ball over the last 12 months qualifies as the longest of his position.

3B

Josh Donaldson, TOR

Additionally pointed out yesterday, Josh Donaldson remains mandatory when facing lefties. Note his slugging and ISO difference of .661/.120 against said handedness, as opposed to his slugging percentage of .553 against righties.

Adrian Beltre, TEX

Projected to score the most runs of any team (4.8) today, Beltre includes a Bargain Rating of 95% at FanDuel despite his wOBA difference of .087.

Matt Carpenter, STL

With an 86% Bargain Rating at DraftKings, note Carpenter’s average batted-ball distance of 242 feet is actually 19 feet further than the next closest at his position (Luis Valbuena). His exit velocity of 94 mph also stands atop his position.

SS

Corey Seager, LAD

Featuring an ISO difference of .199, Seager also benefits from the third-highest batted-ball distance among shortstops. His Plus/Minus of +2.7 trails only Trevor Story out of the gates at their position.

OF

Bryce Harper, WAS

With the wind in Atlanta blowing out, Harper’s slugging percentage of .698 against righties should be considered the top option among outfielders.

Adam Duvall, PHI

Duvall’s average batted-ball distance of 230 in the past 12 months is equivalent to Jose Bautista’s. With a 90% Bargain Rating at FanDuel, his ISO difference of .236 can easily be exploited.

David Peralta, ARI

Tied with the highest Pro Trends among outfielders, Peralta’s wOBA difference of .108 is yet again a top option as the Diamondbacks are tied with the Rangers to score the most projected runs of this slate.

Weather Watch

There’s a lot of possible precipitation today as Giants-Brewers (69% chance of rain, though the latter could opt to close their roof), Red Sox-Indians (58%), Cardinals-Pirates (54%), Nationals-Braves (72%), and Phillies-Reds (78%) are expected to receive light showers at some point throughout.

Two Things I Like or Don’t Like

Precipitation Isn’t Always a Red Flag

In fact, with no lightning or thunder around, that’s all the more reason to exploit the above matchups in tournaments. Most will attempt to avoid them altogether; all the while, targeting high-upside guys with low ownership remains the most valuable approach.

You Can Take Bud Norris Out of Camden Yards, But…

Norris’ average of 1.63 home runs per nine innings isn’t likely to just disappear. Get your stack on.

Good luck!

YOU MAY ALSO LIKE

No related posts.