The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Wednesday features a split slate. FanDuel has a three-game early slate at 12:10 p.m. ET and then another three-game early slate at 3:05 p.m. ET. DraftKings has a five-game early slate at 1:10 p.m. ET. Both sites have a 15-game all day slate at 12:10 p.m. ET and nine-game main slate at 7:05 p.m. ET.
Pitchers
Studs
On FanDuel, there are four pitchers who cost $10,000 or more:
Gerrit Cole has been absurdly consistent this season:
His matchup against the A’s is slightly below average, as the A’s rank eighth this season in weighted runs created plus (wRC+) against right-handed pitchers (FanGraphs). Additionally, over the past 12 months, their projected lineup has struck out at just a 23.6% clip and possesses a weighted on-base average (wOBA) of .330. However, Cole is still one of the slate’s largest favorites (-180 moneyline odds), and the A’s are implied for a minuscule 3.4 runs.
Cole has been generating strikeouts at an amazing rate this season (37.8%), and he still boasts a 7.4 K Prediction despite the A’s plate discipline. Historically, pitchers with comparable salaries, Vegas data and K Predictions have averaged a +5.07 FanDuel Plus/Minus with 60.4% Consistency.
Chris Sale sports the slate’s highest K Prediction (8.5) against an Orioles team that ranks 29th in wRC+ against lefties this season. However, the Orioles are implied for 4.0 runs, which is higher than you’d expect for a pitcher with his salary. The Red Sox are also just -110 moneyline favorites. It may not help that Camden Yards will have 10-mph winds blowing out to center field and a temperature of 83 degrees, giving Sale a low Weather Rating of just 25. Pitchers with comparable salaries, K Predictions, Vegas data and Weather Ratings have historically done well, but they’ve lacked high-end reliability (per our Trends tool):
However, it may help that Sale has some of the best pitching Statcast data over the past 15 days, owning a 178-foot batted-ball distance, 84-mph exit velocity and 16% hard-hit rate.
Jacob deGrom has been on fire over his past 10 starts, averaging a +12.81 FanDuel Plus/Minus with 80% Consistency. He’s racking up quality starts on FanDuel, but the Mets’ underwhelming bats have kept him from picking up wins. deGrom is only a slight favorite (-116 moneyline odds), and the projected Braves lineup has a meager 17.9% strikeout rate against right-handed pitchers over the past year, but even so deGrom still has a 7.2 K Prediction, and the Braves are implied for a manageable 3.7 runs. Against them a few weeks ago he generated eight strikeouts. Moreover, deGrom has excellent Statcast data over the past 15 days, owning a 192-foot average distance, 88-mph exit velocity and 23% hard-hit rate.
Trevor Bauer has been outstanding over his past 10 starts, averaging a +13.17 FanDuel Plus/Minus with 90% Consistency. He owns an 8.0 K Prediction, which is unsurprising since the projected White Sox lineup possesses a 26.5% strikeout rate against righties over the past 12 months along with a low .302 wOBA. The Indians are sizeable -178 moneyline favorites, and the White Sox are implied for just 3.7 runs. Historically, pitchers with comparable salaries, K Predictions and Vegas data have been reliable investments:
Values
Nick Pivetta has a solid matchup against the Rockies, who rank dead last in wRC+ against righties this season and have a projected lineup with a 27.3% strikeout rate against them over the past year. Pivetta has a respectable 7.0 K Prediction along with favorable Vegas data (-143 moneyline odds). His recent Statcast data also looks great, as he sports a 186-foot average distance, 86-mph exit velocity and 28% hard-hit rate. Pivetta is an excellent SP2 candidate on DraftKings, where he has a 63% Bargain Rating.
Caleb Smith has a 91% Bargain Rating on FanDuel, costing just $7,700. He’s in a sublime spot, as the projected Giants lineup has a 27.1% strikeout rate and .299 wOBA against lefties over the past year. He trails only Sale with his 8.3 K Prediction. Furthermore, he’s at the pitcher-friendly Marlins Park, which has a Park Factor of 83.
Fastballs
Kenta Maeda: He boasts a solid 8.1 K Prediction against the Rangers, whose projected lineup has a 29% strikeout rate and .294 wOBA against righties over the past 12 months. The Dodgers also check in as -175 moneyline favorites, and the Rangers are implied for a mere 3.2 runs.
Jose Berrios: The Twins are sizeable -163 moneyline favorites against a Tigers team implied for 3.8 runs. Berrios is beginning to gain traction: He’s struck out seven or more batters in his past six starts with three games of at least 10 strikeouts.
J.A. Happ: At the time of writing, there is no Vegas data for this game, but Happ flaunts a solid 7.6 K Prediction and, Tropicana Field has an 87 Park Factor for lefties.
Zach Greinke: He may not have much strikeout upside against the Pirates (6.5 K Prediction), but the Diamondbacks are -141 moneyline favorites, and the Pirates are tied for a day-low 3.2-run implied total.
Notable Stacks
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS lineups. Today’s top five-man early-slate DraftKings stack in the CSURAM88 Model belongs to the Cubs, who are implied for 4.6 runs:
The Cubs have a matchup against Brewers pitcher Jhoulys Chacin, who has awful Statcast data of late with a 236-foot average distance, 92-mph exit velocity and 50% fly-ball rate. Anthony Rizzo is on the positive side of his wOBA and isolated power (ISO) splits, owning an elite .387 wOBA and .247 ISO against righties over the past 12 months. He also boasts the best Statcast data on the team, sporting a 234-foot average distance, 91-mph exit velocity and 44% fly-ball rate over the past 15 days.
The top four-man main-slate FanDuel stack in the CSURAM88 Model belongs to the Cardinals, who are implied for 5.1 runs:
The Cardinals will square off against Padres pitcher Eric Lauer, who owns a woeful 2.10 WHIP and 1.64 HR/9 over the past 12 months. He’s also allowed plenty of substantial contact over the past 15 days as evidenced by his a 233-foot average distance, 93-mph exit velocity and 41% hard-hit rate.
Jose Martinez is running ridiculously hot right now, averaging a +8.29 FanDuel Plus/Minus with 60% Consistency over his past 10 games. He has smashed lefties over the past year to the tune of a .498 wOBA and .369 ISO: Martinez’s wOBA and ISO differentials are among the highest on the slate. Furthermore, he also owns elite short-term Statcast data with a 233-foot average distance, 96-mph exit velocity and 61% hard-hit rate. His 15-day/12-month differentials in distance (+20 feet) and hard-hit rate (+21 percentage points) are absurdly high.
Other Batters
The Twins are in a good spot with a 4.8-run implied total against Tigers pitcher Matt Boyd, who has allowed a 240-foot average distance and 46% hard-hit rate over the past 15 days. Brian Dozier has obliterated lefties over the past 12 months with his .388 wOBA and .244 ISO. He’s also made solid contact over his past 12 games with a 92-mph exit velocity and 43% hard-hit rate.
Scott Schebler is projected to occupy the leadoff spot for the Reds, and he owns a solid 82% Bargain Rating on FanDuel. Moreover, he boasts a 230-foot average distance, 94-mph exit velocity and 47% hard-hit rate over the past 15 days. Schebler’s been unlucky of late in his fantasy production (+16 Recent Batted Ball Luck), but that may change against Royals pitcher Jason Hammel, who has atrocious recent Statcast data with his 241-foot average distance, 95-mph exit velocity and 53% hard-hit rate. Leadoff hitters with comparable batted-ball data have historically averaged a +1.61 FanDuel Plus/Minus.
Joey Votto is another Reds hitter who matches up well against Hammel with a .452 wOBA and .214 ISO against righties over the past year. Furthermore, Votto owns an excellent 95-mph exit velocity and 43% hard-hit rate over the past 15 days. He’s been hot over his past 10 games, averaging a +2.08 DraftKings Plus/Minus with 80% Consistency.
Yan Gomes possesses a very high RBBL (+79) on DraftKings and has crushed the baseball over his past 10 games with a 240-foot average distance, 94-mph exit velocity and 50% hard-hit rate. Historically, hitters with comparable RBBLs and batted-ball data have averaged a +1.89 DraftKings Plus/Minus.
Don’t forget about the Phillies, who are implied for 4.7 runs. No. 2 hitter Rhys Hoskins sports a .391 wOBA and .262 ISO against lefties over the past 12 months.
Good luck, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more in-depth MLB analysis.
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs.
Pictured above: Trevor Bauer
Photo credit: Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports
