The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Friday features a 15-game main slate that begins at 7:05 p.m. ET.
Pitchers
Studs
On DraftKings, there are three pitchers that cost $10,000 or more:
Corey Kluber has been outstanding over the past 12 months with a 0.78 WHIP, 0.95 HR/9 and 11.02 SO/9. Additionally, Kluber has been smashing over the past month, as he’s averaging a +4.57 DraftKings Plus/Minus with 88% Consistency. Overall, it’s an exceptional spot for Kluber, as the Indians are -212 moneyline favorites and the Twins are implied for a slate-low 3.0 runs. Even though the projected Twins lineup is sporting a 22.3% strikeout rate over the past 12 months against righties, Kluber’s floor should still be bolstered by his 8.1 K Prediction.
The primary concern with Kluber is that he has allowed a 93-mph exit velocity and 46% hard-hit rate over his past two starts, and the Twins rank third in hard-hit rate against right-handed pitchers this season (FanGraphs). Historically, pitchers with comparable salaries, K Predictions and Vegas data have been relatively reliable (per our Trends tool):
Charlie Morton may have limited upside against the Royals (6.4 K Prediction) since their projected lineup has a low 21.8% strikeout rate against right-handed pitchers over the past 12 months. That said, they also boast a low .300 weighted on-base average (wOBA) and rank 25th in weighted runs created plus (wRC+) against righties this season (FanGraphs). While the Astros check in as -216 moneyline favorites and the Royals’ 3.6 implied run total is rather low, Morton does have some concerns.
Over his past two starts, he’s allowed a tremendous amount of hard contact, as evidenced by his 247-foot average distance, 95-mph exit velocity and 53% hard-hit rate. Those Statcast numbers could potentially lead to trouble against a contact-oriented team like the Royals, who rank second this season in hard-hit rate against righties, per FanGraphs.
James Paxton is another ace who has been crushing over the past month:
However, Paxton will have his work cut out for him against a projected Red Sox lineup that boasts a 21.3% strikeout rate and .337 wOBA against lefties over the past year. That said, there are some positives to note. For starters, the Red Sox rank 27th in wRC+ against left-handed pitchers this season, and the Mariners check in as -149 moneyline favorites as the Sox are implied for just 3.4 runs. Moreover, Paxton still owns a solid 7.9 K Prediction. Pitchers with comparable salaries, Vegas data and K Predictions have historically averaged a +3.49 DraftKings Plus/Minus with 60% Consistency.
Values
Zack Godley has been inconsistent of late, but he’ll be in a nice spot on Friday against a projected Mets lineup that owns a high 27.4% strikeout rate and a weak .300 wOBA against righties over the past 12 months. The Mets have also been slightly below average in wRC+ (17th) against righties this season. Godley is sporting an excellent 7.4 K Prediction, and the Diamondbacks are slight favorites (-123), as the Mets have a weak 3.8 implied runs total. Pitchers with comparable salaries, K Predictions and Vegas data have historically been reliable values on DraftKings:
Kevin Gausman has a respectable 6.4 K Prediction against the Marlins. While their projected lineup has a low 22.2% strikeout rate over the past year against righties, they also own a woeful .299 wOBA and rank 28th in wRC+ against them this season. Gausman also has excellent Statcast data over his past two starts, with a 199-foot average distance, 89-mph exit velocity and 24% hard-hit rate. The Orioles also have favorable Vegas odds (-149).
Fastballs
Ross Stripling has been scorching hot over the past month:
The Dodgers are significant -195 moneyline favorites, and the Giants are implied for a paltry 3.1 runs. Moreover, Stripling has a solid 7.0 K Prediction along with outstanding Statcast data over his past two starts, with a 184-foot average distance, 86-mph exit velocity and 23% hard-hit rate. Pitchers with comparable salaries, Vegas data and K Predictions have historically averaged a stellar +3.36 DraftKings Plus/Minus with 66.7% Consistency.
Jonathan Loaisiga: The 23-year-old will make his debut for the Yankees. Vegas appears to be a believer in Loaisiga, as the Yankees are -170 moneyline favorites and the Rays are implied for a mediocre 3.9 runs. In his six games in AA this season, he averaged an 11.52 K/9, 1.24 WHIP and 4.32 ERA.
Notable Stacks
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS lineups. Today’s top five-man DraftKings stack in the CSURAM88 Model belongs to the Rangers, who are implied for 5.6 runs:
The Rockies-Rangers game will have ideal hitting conditions with an 86 Weather Rating. That’s not to mention a sublime matchup against Chad Bettis, who is allowing a 226-foot average distance, 93-mph exit velocity and 44% hard-hit rate over his past two starts.
Joey Gallo tends to be a boom or bust player with his huge 39.2% strikeout rate over the past year. However, it’s a great spot for Gallo, as he owns an elite .363 wOBA and .322 isolated power (ISO) against right-handed pitchers over the past 12 months. His +38 Recent Batted Ball Luck (RBBL) Score suggests he’s been unlucky of late since Gallo’s in excellent batted-ball form with a 228-foot average distance, 97-mph exit velocity and robust 72% hard-hit rate. His hard-hit rate is 25 percentage points above his 15-day/12-month average. In fact, outside of Delino DeShields, the entire stack has generated tons of hard contact over the past 15 days:
One of the top four-man FanDuel stack in the CSURAM88 Player Model belongs to the Rockies, who are implied for 5.6 runs:
It’s no Coors Field, but Globe Life Park in Arlington will make due. Considering the top stacks in the CSURAM88 Model involve the same game, this could be a potential game stack. DJ LeMahieu, Nolan Arenado and Trevor Story all possess elite wOBA and ISO numbers against left-handed pitchers over the past year:
LeMahieu owns an excellent 82% Bargain Rating on FanDuel, and Story is in the best batted-ball form of the bunch. Over his past 11 games, Story has been obliterating the baseball, with a 249-foot average distance, 94-mph exit velocity and 50% hard-hit rate. Historically, hitters with comparable batted-ball metrics featured in games with similar Weather Ratings (86) have averaged a +3.81 FanDuel Plus/Minus with 50.5% Consistency.
Other Batters
Tyler Flowers possesses a .441 wOBA and .176 ISO against left-handed pitchers over the past year, and he’s in excellent batted-ball form, posting 15-day/12-month differentials in average distance (+26 feet), exit velocity (+4 mph) and hard-hit rate (+20 percentage points). Flowers’ +33 RBBL Score also suggests he’s been unlucky of late. Historically, hitters with comparable RBBL Scores and batted-ball differentials have averaged a +1.44 DraftKings Plus/Minus.
Freddie Freeman has almost identical Statcast data to Flowers with a 245-foot average distance, 96-mph exit velocity and 44% hard-hit rate. He also has elite wOBA (.410) and ISO (.256) numbers against lefties over the 12 months. Freeman costs $500 more than any first baseman on FanDuel, which may suppress his ownership.
Yoan Moncada is another possible progression candidate with his +59 RBBL Score on DraftKings. The switch-hitting second baseman owns a .342 wOBA and .216 ISO against righties over the past 12 months. Furthermore, he’s in exceptional batted-ball form, with a 226-foot average distance, 93-mph exit velocity and 39% hard-hit rate. Overall, it’s an intriguing spot for Moncada, as the White Sox are implied for a respectable 4.5 runs.
Alex Bregman will be on the negative side of his wOBA and ISO splits, but he’s still sporting a .358 wOBA and .187 ISO against righties over the past year. Additionally, Jake Junis has allowed loads of hard contact over his past two starts, with a 229-foot average distance, 95-mph exit velocity and 56% hard-hit rate. Those atrocious numbers are good news for a hitter who owns a 250-foot average distance, 94-mph exit velocity and 44% hard-hit rate over the past 15 days. Hitters with comparable batted-ball metrics featured in games with similar implied run totals (5.5) have historically averaged a +2.72 FanDuel Plus/Minus. Bregman is expensive, but the upside is clear.
Good luck, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more in-depth MLB analysis.
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Pictured above: Joey Gallo and Nomar Mazara
Photo credit: Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports
