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Game 3 of the Fall Classic tonight is in Atlanta with the series tied, 1-1. First pitch at 8:09 pm. ET.
Luis Garcia is on the mound for the Houston Astros and Ian Anderson for the Atlanta Braves. The Braves are very slight favorites at -109. There could definitely be the threat of rain all night in Atlanta, which is something to monitor as the day progresses.
Garcia has had a path very similar as Game 1 starter Framber Valdez in these playoffs. He got shelled twice and then looked very stout in his last outing against the Boston Red Sox. He went 5 2/3 innings, giving up zero earned runs with seven strikeouts. He is a fly ball pitcher who can struggle with command at times.
For DraftKings, he is the preferred choice for the Captain spot on the Bales Model. Many of the top lineup options include Garcia, Anderson, and a top-flight relief pitching option. That can work, but can also be a tricky strategy to nail perfectly.
That is an avenue you can go, but there is definitely a path that either good offenses or Mother Nature get in the way of these starting pitchers. Both managers will say and want their starters to go deep, but they may not have much of a choice. With the series now in a National League ballpark, they will have to consider early pinch-hitting.
Anderson was not afforded a very long leash in the NLCS. He threw a combined seven innings in two starts and only threw a total of 111 pitches. He gave up three total earned runs with six strikeouts. For the season, he has fewer than a strikeout per inning.
He is much more of a ground ball pitcher and is even more prone to the base on balls. He is in a lot of lineups as well on the Lineup Optimizer, but each time it has Garcia as the Captain.
The top play of the night is Eddie Rosario for both sites. Rosario was shut out in Game 2, but had a stretch of four straight multi-hit games going into that one. He has been the catalyst for this Braves’ offense in the postseason, and will likely be the leadoff hitter. He should not get shut out again.
I do not know whether to put him in studs or value, but the second-best play of the night is Michael Brantley who I have been riding all throughout October. He is 5-for-9 to start this World Series with two doubles and is making hard contact nearly every time at the dish. He has multiple hits in four out of five. His pricing continues to not make sense and he will be in some strong hitting opportunities in this game.
Yordan Alvarez has had a relatively “quiet” start to this World Series, but he has been on-base twice in each game. He is a great hitter who is not stymied by a left-handed matchup later on in the game. He has reached safely in every single postseason game, and has done so at least twice in all but three games.
Joc Pederson has some value on FanDuel. He is in a slide right now, but not too long ago everyone was saying how it was “Joctober.” For his price, he hits in a strong part of this Braves’ lineup. I do wonder who is losing an at-bat or two to Jorge Soler though.
The easy punt play is Martin Maldonado, but it is a tough one to take. I think on DraftKings you actually may be better off going with one of those relievers: either Ryne Stanek, Ryan Pressly or Will Smith. Maldonado is just ice cold at the plate, as he is 3-for-35 in the playoffs. One of those three did come in Game 2. I just think he sees two or three at-bats in this game which automatically limits his possible production.
Austin Riley is a little all or nothing right now, but can be worth his price on FanDuel. He has struck out seven times in his last three games, but also has four hits with two doubles in that span. He has a huge reverse split, where he has hit right-handers better in nearly every category. 30 of his 33 home runs this year came off of right-handers.
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Photo Credit: Carmen Mandato/Getty Images
Pictured: Luis Garcia