The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Saturday features a single-game Showdown slate starting at 8:09 pm ET. We will be using Bales Model to highlight some of the top options to consider.
Zack Greinke will be on the mound for Houston in hopes to even the World Series at two games apiece. Greinke has made two postseason appearances so far in which he has allowed two earned runs in a combined 2 1/3 innings. The Braves are projected for an implied runs total of 4.3. Greinke’s $6,200 price on DraftKings is very intriguing as he will be making his second postseason start, however he is not expected to pitch far into the game.
On the opposite side of the diamond, the Braves are expected to use Jesse Chavez as an opener and Drew Smyly as a bulk guy. Chavez has been very effective when given the ball as he has allowed only three hits and no runs in 4 2/3 innings. Like Greinke, Chavez is not projected to go deep in Game 4 as he is likely to throw one inning maximum.
Smyly is the much more viable option between the two as he is expected to be tasked with multiple innings. The inning Smyly pitched in Game 2 was not pretty. It took the Braves lefty 22 pitches to get three outs while he allowed a home run to Jose Altuve. The Houston Astros are projected for the exact same implied runs total as the Braves tonight (4.3 runs).
The projected leadoff man for the Astros tonight is second baseman Jose Altuve. Although Altuve was hitless in two of the three series games so far, he always poses at threat to opposing pitchers. In Game 2, Altuve connected for a home run and a double. This year, Altuve tied a career high 31 home runs.
Yordan Alvarez has struggled in the first three games of the World Series. After collecting a hit in each game of the ALCS against Boston, Alvarez has only reached base twice via walk his last seven plate appearances. The stars may be aligning at the right time for the Astros’ 24-year-old who is batting fourth in World Series Game 4.
For the Braves, Freddie Freeman has been extremely reliable as usual. In the first three games he has collected three hits and two RBI. Freeman is projected to bat second and is the highest priced player on the slate. This year at home, Freeman had a batting average of .304 while collecting 15 home runs.
Another batter in the Braves order that has been extremely consistent recently is Austin Riley. Riley came into the league as a power hitter, however, has really improved his game to be more well-rounded. Also at the age of 24. Riley is projected to bat cleanup and will play a pivotal role in a game that may put the Astros on the brink of elimination.
Value and Punts
The highest rated batter on Bales Model is Eddie Rosario. After collecting a hit in the first 11 postseason games, Rosario’s bat has finally cooled off in his last two games. Not only has Rosario been collecting hit on a regular basis, but he has also been scoring many runs.
Michael Brantley is a strong option to consider tonight. Brantley collected five hits in the first two games against the Braves and if the Astros hope to tie the series up today will need another solid performance. Although Brantley only has eight home runs and 56 RBI on the year, his .313 batting average proves he is a potent source to the Astros offense.
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Photo Credit: Edward M. Pio Roda/MLB Photos via Getty Images
Pictured: Freddie Freeman