The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Sunday features a single-game Showdown slate starting at 8:15 pm ET. We will be using Bales Model to highlight some of the top options to consider.
Framber Valdez will get the ball in Game 5 of the World Series as the Atlanta Braves are one win away from winning it all. In four appearances this postseason, Valdez has thrown 17 innings, allowed 12 earned runs, four home runs, and has 15 strikeouts. Valdez was on the mound for Game 1 and allowed five earned runs in two innings. Valdez is the highest-rated pitching option on Bales Model tonight as the Braves are projected for an implied runs total of 4.2.
On the opposite side of the diamond, the Braves are expected to give Tucker Davidson the nod. Davidson was recently added to the World Series roster after the injury to Charlie Morton. Davidson is a very inexperienced pitcher who has only thrown a total of 21 2/3 innings in the majors. At the age of 25, Davidson will have a tough task facing the Astros batters who are desperate to save their season. Davidson is not expected to be on the hill too long tonight as the nominal opener, and the Astros are projected for an implied runs total of 4.4.
Jose Altuve was the only Astros hitter who showed up in Game 4 as he collected two hits in five at bats including a home run. Altuve will bat leadoff for the Astros, who are hoping for another strong performance from their star second baseman. Despite collecting only five stolen bases during the regular season, Altuve is still a threat on the base path. If he can reach base safely, look for some aggression out of Astros’ base runners.
Kyle Tucker is not the most prominent name on the Astros’ roster, but deserves consideration tonight. In the first four games of the series, Tucker has collected five hits including two RBI. Tucker is another player who is a threat on the bases for the Astros. He has already added two stolen bases to his resume the past three games.
After reaching base via hit in 11 consecutive games, Ozzie Albies has been very quiet recently. It is worth noting that he did draw two walks in the past two games, however no hits. If the Braves expect to close out the series today, they may need Albies to get back on track.
Freddie Freeman has collected a hit in each of the first four games while also striking out once per game. The Braves will happily take the hit/strikeout ratio from Freeman as long as he is producing or scoring runs. Although he has not accounted for any runs recently himself, Freeman has driven two batters in so far this series. Freeman is the highest-priced player on the slate and always seems to come up clutch when the Braves need him most. Look for Freeman to continue his consistent ways tonight and maybe even hit a home run as there is a projected 6-mph wind blowing out to center field.
Value and Punts
The highest rated batter on Bales Model is Michael Brantley. He reached base safely twice in Saturday’s game and is priced very affordable at $6,200 on DraftKings. Brantley is projected for the second-highest points/salary total and will be batting second. Although there is projected high ownership on the Astros’ outfielder, we view Brantley as a value play.
Finally, a punt who has performed very well is Travis d’Arnaud. Although he was held hitless Saturday, d’Arnaud collected five hits in the first three games of the series including two home runs. This recent power surge provides a sign of hope for the bottom of the Braves’ order.
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Photo Credit: Carmen Mandato/Getty Images
Pictured: Framber Valdez