The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Wednesday’s NBA slate only features one game, but there’s still plenty of DFS money available for winning: Both FanDuel and DraftKings feature $300k guaranteed prize pools with $100k going to first.
The format is a little different: FanDuel only has five roster spots, including one “MVP” who earns 1.5x points, while DraftKings has six utility spots, which makes lineup construction and strategy slightly different. Lets dive in.
Philadelphia 76ers at Boston Celtics (-1) | OU: 204.5
8 p.m. ET | TNT
Celtics (102.75 implied points)
With the Celtics returning home, it might be time to look to Terry Rozier again. Rozier is averaging just 30.13 DraftKings points per game on the road during this series, but that number balloons to 52.38 at home. Those results are in line with his larger sample of home/road splits over the duration of the season:
(via FantasyLabs NBA Trends tool)
Rozier could be worth some FanDuel MVP consideration, and he’s also seen a salary decrease of $1,500 on DraftKings since Game 2.
Al Horford doesn’t possess the same upside as Rozier, Simmons, or Embiid, but he has been incredibly consistent during the postseason, scoring at least 32.5 DraftKings points in 10-of-11 playoff games, including all four against Philly.
Jaylen Brown has played in each of the last three games after missing Game 1 with a hamstring injury, but he’s been limited to fewer than 30 minutes in each contest. Brown was excellent on a per-minute basis over that span, however, averaging nearly 1.0 DraftKings points per minute. He could see a few additional minutes as he gets further removed from his injury, and he’s been priced down to $7,100 on DraftKings and $9,000 on FanDuel, which gives him a shot at returning value even if he remains on a minutes limit.
Jayson Tatum’s role should be safe regardless of what happens with Brown. Tatum has taken a step forward in the playoffs, increasing his usage rate to 24.5% while averaging 18.3 points per game. He unfortunately doesn’t provide much in the peripheral stat categories, but he’s still scored at least 30.8 FanDuel points in six straight games.
Marcus Smart and Marcus Morris are more volatile performers, but each player has shown the ability to put up a big score. Of the two, Smart will likely play more minutes; he’s seen 31 in each of the last two games. Morris is third on the team in usage during the postseason, and could be an especially intriguing target given that he’s shot just 37.3%; if he can have a hot shooting night, he has the ability to be a tournament winner.
Finally, Aron Baynes is also someone to consider. Baynes is priced at just $4,400 on DraftKings and has averaged 22.0 fantasy points over his past two games despite shooting just 35.7% from the field.
76ers (101.75 implied points)
The 76ers were able to stave off elimination in Game 4, but they’re slight underdogs Wednesday with the series moving back to Boston. The 76ers actually opened as 1.5-point favorites, but the line has moved by 2.5 points thanks to 85% of public money coming in on the Celtics.
The 76ers made a change to their rotation for Game 4, with TJ McConnell replacing Robert Covington in the starting lineup. McConnell dominated in that role, scoring 35.8 DraftKings points in 39 minutes, and he has historically been a reliable fantasy option when projected to play at least 30 minutes (per our NBA Trends tool):
McConnell remains really affordable across the industry — he’s the 11th-priciest option on DraftKings and 13th-priciest option on FanDuel — which makes him really tough to fade assuming he remains in the starting lineup.
You’re going to need to nail the MVP spot to have a shot at the big money on FanDuel. The two most logical choices are Joel Embiid and Ben Simmons. They’re the two highest-priced options Wednesday and have averaged the most fantasy points per game of all players on the slate by a pretty significant margin.
Let’s start with Embiid. He disappointed with just 31.6 FanDuel points in Game 4, but has mostly found success against the Celtics over the past two seasons:
(via FantasyLabs NBA Trends tool)
Embiid leads the 76ers with a usage rate of 29.3% during the playoffs, and that mark is more than 8 percentage points higher than that of any of his teammates. Embiid’s overall numbers have been hampered by shooting just 42.5% from the field, but if that mark increases at all in Game 5, he has a chance for a big performance.
On the other hand, Simmons has been held in check by the Celtics for the majority of the season. He failed to exceed salary-based expectations in all eight regular season and playoff games, resulting in an average Plus/Minus of -8.53 on FanDuel:
(via FantasyLabs NBA Trends tool)
That said, Simmons did show some signs of life in Philadelphia in Games 3 and 4, averaging 43.35 FanDuel points. The insertion of McConnell into the starting lineup could bode well for Simmons moving forward, as per our NBA On/Off tool, Simmons has increased his usage rate by 3.2% with McConnell on the floor this season:
It remains to be seen if Simmons’ newfound success against Boston will continue on the road, where he’s averaged roughly five fewer fantasy points per game this season.
Dario Saric exploded for 45.5 DraftKings points in Game 4 and has sneaky MVP appeal on FanDuel. Saric played 39 minutes in that game, relegating Ersan Ilyasova to a minor role.
The remaining options are all flyers at best. J.J. Redick has played at least 32 minutes in each of the previous four games, but he’s cracked 27.1 points in just one of those contests. Robert Covington played just 19 minutes off the bench in Game 4, which makes him really tough to trust, especially at his elevated salary on FanDuel. Ultimately, Marco Belinelli might be the best value among 76ers role players. Belinelli has played at least 24 minutes in three of the four games of this series and provides a similar skill set to Redick at a lower salary.
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our NBA News Feed.
Pictured above: Terry Rozier
Photo credit: Greg M. Cooper – USA TODAY Sports
