The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Saturday features an eight-game early slate on DraftKings and FanDuel that begins at 3:05 p.m. ET. The six-game main slate beings at 7:15 p.m. ET.
Pitchers
Studs
Throughout the day, there are three pitchers on FanDuel that cost $9,000 or more:
The top-priced pitchers on the early slate face each other, and it’s basically set as a pick’em as Lance McCullers and the Astros check in as -111 moneyline favorites. McCullers faced the Indians in his last start, surrendering one run and punching out eight in seven innings. It’s a tough overall matchup — the projected Indians lineup owns a 19.8% strikeout rate and .335 weighted on-base average (wOBA) against righties over the past 12 months. Per our MLB Trends tool, pitchers with comparable salaries, K Predictions (5.8) and Vegas data have historically been subpar, averaging a -0.11 Plus/Minus and failing to reach salary-based expectations nearly half the time.
Carlos Carrasco is also in a difficult spot against a projected Astros lineup that boasts a 16.6% strikeout rate and .347 wOBA against righties over the past 12 months. Carrasco is a small underdog (+103) and has a mediocre K Prediction (6.0). Furthermore, he’s allowed a 95-mph exit velocity and 52% hard-hit rate over his past two starts. Oddly, the Trends tool reveals that since 2013, Carrasco has drastic home/road splits that favor him playing on the road, with a +8.5 average Plus/Minus and 71% Consistency on the road compared to 0 and 54%, respectively, at home.
Aaron Nola checks in as the largest favorite on the early slate (-186) against a Blue Jays team that is implied for a slate-low 3.6 runs. Nola is another pitcher who has drastic home/road splits, except unlike Carrasco, Nola has historically dominated at home since 2015, averaging a +11.7 Plus/Minus and 75% Consistency compared to +0.1 and 51%, respectively, on the road (per the Trends tool). Aside from his slate-best 8.0 K Prediction, Nola has great recent batted-ball data, allowing a 192-foot average distance with an 88-mph exit velocity over the past 15 days. In Nola’s 11 home starts where the Phillies have been at least -150 moneyline favorites, he’s averaging a +19.82 FanDuel Plus/Minus.
Values
Jack Flaherty is a better value on FanDuel at $7,500 than on DraftKings at $10,900. It’s not the best matchup, as the Pirates rank sixth in weighted runs created plus (wRC+) against righties this season (FanGraphs) and their projected lineup owns just a 22.2% strikeout rate against them over the past 12 months. That said, pitching options are thin on the early slate. The Cardinals check in as -119 favorites, and the Pirates’ 4.1 implied run total is on the lower end compared to the rest of the slate.
There is no implied run total posted for the Cubs-Giants game at the time of writing, but Jose Quintana and the Cubs are -190 moneyline favorites on the main slate. Quintana boasts a solid 7.9 K Prediction against a projected Giants lineup that owns a 25.3% strikeout rate and below average wOBA (.303) against lefties over the past 12 months. Per the Trends tool, pitchers with comparable salaries, K Predictions and moneyline odds have historically been safe investments, averaging a +6.83 Plus/Minus and 69.1% Consistency.
Fastballs
Tanner Roark: The Nationals are -152 moneyline favorites against a Marlins team that ranks 28th in wRC+ against righties this season. Roark owns a respectable 6.1 K Prediction, and the Marlins are implied for just 3.8 runs. Per the Trends tool, pitchers with comparable moneyline odds and K Predictions have historically averaged a +2.34 FanDuel Plus/Minus.
Chase Anderson: Anderson has nearly identical odds (-150) and K Predictions (6.1) to Roark, except the Mets have a slightly higher implied run total (4.1). That said, the Mets rank sixth in wRC+ against righties this season.
Daniel Mengden: Mengden doesn’t have much strikeout upside (4.8 K Prediction), but the A’s are -152 moneyline favorites and the Diamondbacks are implied for a paltry 3.6 runs. Mengden also has a Park Factor of 81 working in his favor.
Alex Wood: Wood would have fit into the stud category on DraftKings, as he checks in with a $10,100 salary, but he’s sitting at $8,700 with a 91% Bargain Rating on FanDuel. He looks like one of the better options on the main slate with Carrasco and McCullers being matched up against each other, as he has a supreme matchup against a Padres team that ranks 22nd in wRC+ against lefties this season. Furthermore, their projected lineup features a robust 31.2% strikeout rate and mediocre .274 wOBA against lefties over the past 12 months. Additionally, the Dodgers are sizable favorites (-190), with the Padres implied for just 2.9 runs. According to the Trends tool, pitchers with comparable salaries, K Predictions, and Vegas data have historically averaged a +5.11 FanDuel Plus/Minus.
Notable Stacks
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS lineups. The top four-man early-slate FanDuel stack in the CSURAM88 Model belongs to the Rangers, who are implied for a slate-high 5.5 runs:
With a Weather Rating of 92, the Rangers will have ideal hitting conditions at their home park. Per the Trends tool, hitters featured in games with Weather Ratings in the 90th percentile have historically averaged a +1.79 DraftKings Plus/Minus.
The primary downside with Joey Gallo is his 38.8% strikeout rate, but Gallo has smashed righties over the past 12 months to the tune of a .359 wOBA and .331 isolated power (ISO). Gallo is also in excellent recent batted-ball form, with a 240-foot average distance, 95-mph exit velocity and 40% hard-hit rate over the past 15 days. However, his +32 Recent Batted Ball Luck Score (RBBL) suggests he’s been unlucky of late. The matchup against Ian Kennedy, who is allowing a 93-mph exit velocity and 37% hard-hit rate over his past two games, could be a spot for Gallo to get back on track.
Shin-Soo Choo has also fared well against righties, posting a .340 wOBA and .188 ISO against them over the past 12 months. Furthermore, he’s generating plenty of hard contact over the past 15 days, with a 92-mph exit velocity and 44% hard-hit rate
The top five-man stack on DraftKings for the main slate belongs to the Rockies, who are implied for 6.1 runs:
There will be excellent hitting conditions again at Coors Field, a park with a Park Factor and Weather Rating of 100. Tyler Mahle has surrendered a generous amount of hard contact over his past two starts, allowing a 94-mph exit velocity and 51% hard-hit rate. Overall, Mahle has struggled over the past 15 days when compared to his 12-month average, with a +10-foot distance differential, +3-mph exit velocity and +16-percentage points on his hard-hit rate.
Meanwhile, David Dahl and Chris Iannetta are smoking the ball over the past 15 days:
Dahl and Iannetta are each sporting an RBBL Score above +50, suggesting that positive regression could be headed their way.
Other Batters
Trea Turner has been crushing the ball of late, posting positive differentials in average distance (+42 feet), exit velocity (+4-mph), and hard-hit rate (+14-percentage points) over the past 15 days. In addition, Turner has historically averaged 0.384 stolen bases per game, and per the Trends tool, hitters with comparable batted-ball differentials and stolen bases per game have historically averaged a +1.64 DraftKings Plus/Minus.
The Tigers are implied for a stellar 4.9 runs against the White Sox. Nick Castellanos is sporting an elite .444 wOBA and .297 ISO against lefties over the past 12 months. He’s been unlucky of late with a +12 RBBL Score, but he’s in excellent batted-ball form with a 227-foot average distance, 92-mph exit velocity and 48% hard-hit rate over the past 15 days. According to the Trends tool, hitters with comparable batted-ball metrics featured in games with similar implied run totals have averaged a +1.24 DraftKings Plus/Minus.
Eugenio Suarez gets to square off against lefty Tyler Anderson, and Suarez obliterates lefties to the tune of a .423 wOBA and .266 ISO over the past 12 months. Additionally, he’s in solid recent batted-ball form with a 244-foot average distance, 94-mph exit velocity and 38% hard-hit rate over the past 15 days.
Adam Duvall will also be on the positive side with his wOBA and ISO splits, owning a .377 wOBA and .315 ISO against lefties over the past year. With cheap pitching options on the main slate and only three teams implied for more than 4.3 runs, all of Coors Field is likely to see very condensed ownership.
Didi Gregorius could be a pivot off Trevor Story. While Gregorius is averaging a -3.12 DraftKings Plus/Minus over the past 10 days, he’s in a supreme spot Saturday as the Yankees are implied for 5.4 runs. Didi owns a .371 wOBA and .281 ISO against righties over the past 12 months, but he’s been incredibly unlucky of late, evidenced by his +60 RBBL Score. Despite his negative Plus/Minus average, Gregorius was able to homer a few games ago and will look to do so again against Jaime Barria, who has allowed an absurd 97-mph exit velocity over the past 15 days.
Good luck, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more in-depth MLB analysis.
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Pictured above: Aaron Nola
Photo credit: Jeff Curry – USA TODAY Sports
