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Both DraftKings and FanDuel are offering $100,000 first-place prizes in their largest one-game guaranteed prize pools for Saturday’s Game 3 of the Eastern Conference Finals between the Boston Celtics and the Cleveland Cavaliers.
If you’re not familiar, DraftKings’ one-game contests feature six-man rosters, a $50,000 cap, and no scoring multipliers, while FanDuel’s feature five-man rosters with multipliers for whichever player you designate as the MVP (2x), Star (1.5x), and Pro (1.2x). FanDuel’s multipliers introduce more lineup combinations and should help to limit some of the all-too-common ties that occur in these contests, while DraftKings’ lack of multipliers increases the likelihood of ties and therefore provides extra incentive to go contrarian in other ways, such as by taking a player projected for low ownership or by leaving salary on the table.
Boston Celtics at Cleveland Cavaliers (-6.5) | O/U: 206.5
8:30 p.m. ET | ESPN
Cavaliers (106.5 implied points)
It’s going to be nearly impossible to avoid LeBron James on Saturday’s slate. LeBron is coming off a 42-point triple-double in his last outing, and some critics had the audacity to say that he didn’t do enough in that game. His current ceiling projection in our NBA Models is more than 30 points higher than any other player’s, which makes him the obvious choice for the MVP slot on FanDuel.
Kevin Love was also effective for the Cavs in Game 2, scoring 22 points and pulling down 15 rebounds en route to 45.75 DraftKings points. That said, he’s been guarded by Horford for virtually the entire series, and Horford has limited him to 7.6 points per 100 possessions below his season average. Love has averaged just 1.01 fantasy points per minute over the past month, which is a pretty significant decrease from his 12-month average of 1.20. Love still possesses more upside than anyone but LeBron, but he’s not as safe of a play as some of Boston’s top options.
After the big two for the Cavs, they have absolutely no one you can count on. Their starting backcourt of George Hill and J.R. Smith combined for just three points on 1-of-11 shooting in Game 2. However, role players typically perform better when playing at home, so perhaps this series transitioning back to Cleveland will help both players in Game 3.
Jeff Green is another player who could possibly benefit from a change in scenery. He’s averaged a respectable 0.73 DraftKings points per minute over the past month but just 10.38 DraftKings points per game through the first two games of this series. It remains to be seen how many minutes he’ll play in today’s contest, but he has upside at his current salary.
Tristan Thompson played more minutes in Game 2 after joining the starting lineup but managed to contribute significantly fewer fantasy points than he did in Game 1. Still, Thompson feels like the safest option on the Cavs after LeBron and Love. Thompson has averaged 0.75 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, and he does his best work on the glass, a department which the Celtics have been susceptible in the past.
Finally, Kyle Korver is an interesting option. Korver offers significantly more shooting upside than any of the other Cavs role players, but his playing time has been inconsistent during the playoffs. That stems from his inability to play defense at this point in his career, but honestly, the Cavs aren’t doing much defending in these playoffs regardless of who’s on the court. If Korver is making 3s in today’s contest, he could wind up playing a few more minutes than expected.
Celtics (100 implied points)
The Celtics are currently listed as 6.5-point underdogs in Game 3 despite trouncing the Cavaliers in each of the first two games of this series. The public is starting to believe in this team, however, with 53% of the bets coming in against James and the Cavaliers. However, the Celtics have been much more vulnerable on the road during the playoffs, owning a 1-4 record compared to a perfect 9-0 record at the Boston Garden.
Al Horford has scored at least 39 DraftKings points in each of the first two games of this series and has absolutely manhandled Love when given the opportunity. Horford has exceeded his per-100 scoring average by 32.2 points in that matchup, shooting 9-of-11 from the field and 2-of-4 from 3-point range. Thompson has had much more success against Horford in this series than Love and will likely draw another start and get the primary matchup against Horford in Game 3, which somewhat limits Big Al’s appeal.
Jaylen Brown appears to be fully removed from his minutes limit after playing over 35 minutes in Game 2. Brown has been fantastic when on the court this postseason and has averaged 0.97 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. The Cavs have been one of the best matchups in the league this season for opposing wings, so it’s no surprise Brown has an Opponent Plus/Minus of +5.58 for Game 3; Brown has destroyed both Korver and Smith when they’ve defended him in this series.
Jayson Tatum has taken a bit of a backseat with Brown back at full strength and is coming off just 19.25 DraftKings points in Game 2. Still, Tatum arguably has an even better matchup than Brown, which is supported by his superior Opponent Plus/Minus of +6.39. Tatum had scored at least 30.5 DraftKings points in eight straight games prior to his Game 2 clunker, but could have slightly lower ownership than usual because of recency bias.
Terry Rozier has become a bit of a folk hero in Boston this postseason, earning the nickname “Scary Terry” after delivering a handful of big performances. What’s really scary, though, is Rozier’s home/road splits over the course of the season (per our NBA Trends tool):
Rozier has averaged just 31.15 DraftKings points per game on the road during the postseason, and two of those games have come with Brown out of the lineup. Rozier also has arguably the worst individual matchup on the team, with Hill having limited him to 6.7 points per 100 possessions below his season average thus far. Rozier is tough to trust on Saturday’s slate.
Marcus Morris is a bit of a volatile performer, but he has played 34 minutes in each of the first two games of this series. He’s been serving as the Celtics’ primary defender on LeBron, a role that should keep his playing time safe. Morris shot just 35.7% from the field and 25.0% from 3-point range in Game 2, which contributed to limiting him to only 22.75 DraftKings points, but if his shot starts falling in Game 3, he has the potential for a big performance and huge upside at his current salary.
Marcus Smart shot just 3-of-9 from the field in Game 2, but that didn’t stop him from racking up 39.25 DraftKings points. Smart excels at filling up the box score, which is a big reason why he’s exceeded the 31.75-fantasy-point threshold in three of his past four games. He won’t see as many minutes as the starters, but his average of 0.95 fantasy points per minute over the past month trails only Horford and Brown among Celtics regulars.
From the strange-but-true department: Aron Baynes leads the Celtics in 3-point percentage during the playoffs — this after he shot just 14.3% from 3-point range during the regular season. If that’s not proof that head coach Brad Stevens is a sorcerer, I don’t know what is. Baynes makes some sense at his current salary after averaging 20.75 DraftKings points through the first two games of the series.
If you’re looking for someone at minimal ownership, consider Greg Monroe, who has logged a few minutes in each of the first two games of this series and is a high-usage player when on the court. Monroe is priced at just $1,500 on DraftKings and will allow you to jam in multiple studs.
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our NBA News Feed.
Pictured above (left to right): George Hill, Kevin Love, Kyle Korver, JR Smith
Photo credit: Greg M. Cooper – USA Today Sports
