The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Both DraftKings and FanDuel are offering $100,000 first-place prizes in their largest one-game guaranteed prize pools for Tuesday’s Game 2 of the Eastern Conference Finals between the Boston Celtics and Cleveland Cavaliers at 8:30 p.m. ET.
If you’re not familiar, DraftKings’ one-game contests feature six-man rosters, a $50,000 cap, and no scoring multipliers, while FanDuel’s feature five-man rosters with multipliers for whichever player you designate as the MVP (2x), Star (1.5x), and Pro (1.2x). FanDuel’s multipliers introduce more lineup combinations and should help to limit some of the all-too-common ties that occur in these contests, while DraftKings’ lack of multipliers increases the likelihood of ties and therefore provides extra incentive to go contrarian in other ways, such as by taking a player projected for extremely low ownership or by leaving salary on the table.
Cleveland Cavaliers (-1) at Boston Celtics | O/U: 203.5
8:30 p.m. ET | ESPN
Cavaliers (102.25 implied points)
The Cavs had a disastrous 25-point loss in Game 1 where everything that could go wrong did go wrong for the Cavs. Self-proclaimed LeBron-stopper Marcus Morris outscored The King by six points despite playing less minutes and out-rebounded him by three for good measure. LeBron’s seven turnovers in Game 1 were the same amount he committed in the final three games combined of the Toronto series. Now the question becomes this: How much will change in Game 2? One positive for the Cavs is that they shot just 30.2% on uncontested shots, per Bryan Mears, and that percentage should regress and result in more value for some of the Cavs role players. On the other hand, the Cavs’ spacing may suffer, and they may not get as many uncontested shots because coach Tyronn Lue, stripped of the luxury of Dwane Casey on the opposite sideline, figured out he has to actually coach in this series rather than let the opposing coach beat himself, and thus will insert Tristan Thompson into the starting lineup, with his minutes likely coming at the expense of Kyle Korver.
Whether it’s Korver, George Hill, or J.R. Smith that ultimately loses minutes with Lue going big with Thompson, the bottom line is that LeBron will be a shooter down. The jury’s out on whether this will do more harm than good for the Cavs, but perhaps having one less player to pass to on the outside will force him to be more aggressive after he tied his 2018 playoff-low with only 16 field-goal attempts in Game 1. The last two times in the playoffs LeBron attempted 17 field goals or less (both against Indiana), he put up at least 24 in the next game. Ultimately, LeBron is a player who’s averaging over 1.5 fantasy points per minute on both DraftKings and FanDuel over the past month, while only one other player in this game (Al Horford) even averages 1.0. I’d rather bet on him rebounding in Game 2 and take any potential reduced ownership that may have been brought about from his Game 1 clunker.
The best case for Kevin Love would be if Celtics coach Brad Stevens sticks with his small lineup with Horford at center, because Horford has done an excellent job on Love this season, holding him to only 17 points and 6-of-21 (28.6%) shooting on 96 possessions in the regular season and postseason combined. During the regular season, Love’s usage rate increased slightly with Thompson on the floor, but during the postseason it has dropped from 25.2% with Thompson off the floor to just 17.2% with Thompson on the floor, per our NBA On/Off tool.
Korver got roasted by Jaylen Brown for 11 points on just 29 possessions, which is why his minutes are likely the least safe among himself, Smith, and Hill. Korver played five fewer minutes than Smith and Hill in Game 1, something FanDuel has priced in by making Korver the cheapest of the three, but DraftKings has not, leaving him as the most expensive. Between Smith and Hill, Hill profiles as the higher-upside play based on his role as the point guard, which afforded him 19 more touches in Game 1 than Smith.
However, it’s Thompson who has the best chance among Cavs role players to return value. The last time Thompson was inserted into the starting lineup, he played 34 minutes, and his per-minute average of fantasy points is in the 0.8 range, compared to the 0.7 range for Korver and the 0.6 range for Hill and Smith.
Jeff Green is also a player to consider when the Cavs are on the road. Per our NBA Trends tool, Green is averaging a +2.4 DraftKings Plus/Minus and 50% Consistency on the road this season compared to -2.8 and 38%, respectively, at home.
Celtics (101.25 implied points)
I mentioned Al Horford had the top average among Celtics in fantasy points per minute over the past month, but Lue’s insertion of Thompson into the lineup warrants attention on the Boston side as well. Horford has historically struggled offensively against Thompson, scoring 7.2 fewer points per 100 possessions against him during the regular season and managing no points on 12 possessions when guarded by Thompson in Game 1.
At only $10,500 on FanDuel and $7,100 on DraftKings, Marcus Morris is the top value on the Celtics. He fared extremely well in Game 1 guarding LeBron and will likely get all the minutes he can handle barring foul trouble (he picked up two quick fouls in Game 1).
Terry Rozier has quieted down lately, but he’s grabbed six or more rebounds in each of his past eight playoff games and has scored 20-plus points in three of his past four home playoff games. He has sneaky upside as the fourth highest-priced Celtic on both sites.
Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown are both capable of monster games, but Brown would probably be hurt more if Korver indeed plays less minutes because, as I mentioned earlier, he scored 11 of his 21 points while being guarded by Korver. Tatum brings a lot of consistency to the table, having scored between 30.5 and 36.75 DraftKings points in each of his past eight games, while Brown is more of an upside play whose per-minute scoring rate tends to fluctuate to higher highs and lower lows. Tatum also owns the highest Opponent Plus/Minus on the slate.
Marcus Smart, Aron Baynes, and Semi Ojeleye round out the Celtics rotation. Smart’s minutes were down to 24 in Game 1, which was actually one fewer than Baynes, who may continue to log a decent amount of playing time in order to combat Thompson. Ojeleye played just over 15 minutes in Game 1 but would need major variance to hit as a contrarian play; he’s averaged just 0.35 DraftKings and 0.33 FanDuel points per minute over the past month.
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our NBA News Feed.
Pictured above: Tristan Thompson
Photo credit: Winslow Townson – USA TODAY Sports
