Finding Value At Catcher

The catcher position in DFS is one commonly looked to by DFS players as a spot to save a few bucks, and with good reason. Since most catchers (Salvador Perez notwithstanding) don’t catch every single day, there is generally at least one value play, and likely several more than that. Now past the All-Star break in 2015, let’s take a look at which players have been the best value plays at the position so far and how we can use that information going forward. As usual, value will be measured in Plus/Minus.

Below are the catchers who have added the most value at catcher in 2015 (Minimum of 20 games started). First, a couple of quick notes:

• I used DraftKings’ list of catchers for this study, which means Evan Gattis and Victor Martinez are notable exceptions who qualify at catcher on a few sites.

• Travis d’Arnaud has played in 19 games (and is currently on the DL at the time of this writing), but would have topped the list, currently at +1.95 in Plus/Minus and averaging 8.84 DK points per game.

Player points/game (DK) Plus/Minus Games
Stephen Vogt 8.4 1.6 77
Yasmani Grandal 8.26 1.43 61
Buster Posey 8.74 1.42 82
Brian McCann 8.44 1.37 68
Michael McKenry 7.38 1.13 26
Welington Castillo 6.92 1.01 38
Josh Phegley 7.03 1.00 35
Derek Norris 7.32 0.84 77

 

Not really any surprises, to be honest. The only catcher I was really surprised to find in the top 10 was Welington Castillo. He has averaged the fewest raw points for any of the top catchers, but a lower price point has allowed him to consistently exceed value this season. Baseball is a game of splits though, so while the above list is needed as a reference point, here is the important list. This one shows the best actual plays at catcher, meaning matchups are broken down by handedness:

Player Opp. Hand points/game (DK) Plus/Minus Games
Derek Norris L 9.3 2.9 20
Carlos Ruiz L 8.57 2.75 7
Josh Phegley R 8.64 2.58 14
Francisco Cervelli L 8.69 2.56 13
Stephen Vogt R 9.2 2.41 64
Travis d’Arnaud R 9.17 2.28 18
J.T. Realmuto L 8.5 2.27 18
John Jaso R 9 2.16 8
Buster Posey L 9.29 2.1 21

 

• Derek Norris was an auto-play versus lefties last year, and while there has been less fanfare this year due to San Diego’s disappointing season, this shows he is still an excellent play versus lefties.

• Carlos Ruiz has always been better versus lefties, but his .400 BABIP, smaller sample size, and terrible lineup that surrounds him suggests he’s a likely outlier.

• The Athletics have their fingerprints all over the leaderboard with both members of last year’s Jaso/Norris platoon joining this year’s Vogt/Phegley platoon as top plays.

• Phegley’s 28% upside against right-handed pitching actually ranks just outside the top 10 overall players in the category. McCann has an identical 28% upside against righties, although his +1.52 Plus/Minus ranked a bit below where I drew the line for the second table, perhaps making him a better tournament play.

  • Nick Hundley and Stephen Vogt have been the most consistent plays vs righties, both above 50% in the category.

• Against lefties, Derek Norris’ 75% consistency is tied with Brock Holt for #1 in the MLB this year. Carlos Ruiz is not far behind at 71%, while Matt Wieters and Francisco Cervelli have had the most upside at 42% and 38% respectively. The samples in all cases were much smaller against lefties than righties, though, so that take into consideration.

I think this study shows that going with value at catcher is often going to be the right play. While several of the higher priced catchers like Posey and McCann have been pretty good overall in terms of exceeding expected value, their Plus/Minus numbers are much lower than playing someone like Cervelli or Realmuto on the right side of their split.

The catcher position in DFS is one commonly looked to by DFS players as a spot to save a few bucks, and with good reason. Since most catchers (Salvador Perez notwithstanding) don’t catch every single day, there is generally at least one value play, and likely several more than that. Now past the All-Star break in 2015, let’s take a look at which players have been the best value plays at the position so far and how we can use that information going forward. As usual, value will be measured in Plus/Minus.

Below are the catchers who have added the most value at catcher in 2015 (Minimum of 20 games started). First, a couple of quick notes:

• I used DraftKings’ list of catchers for this study, which means Evan Gattis and Victor Martinez are notable exceptions who qualify at catcher on a few sites.

• Travis d’Arnaud has played in 19 games (and is currently on the DL at the time of this writing), but would have topped the list, currently at +1.95 in Plus/Minus and averaging 8.84 DK points per game.

Player points/game (DK) Plus/Minus Games
Stephen Vogt 8.4 1.6 77
Yasmani Grandal 8.26 1.43 61
Buster Posey 8.74 1.42 82
Brian McCann 8.44 1.37 68
Michael McKenry 7.38 1.13 26
Welington Castillo 6.92 1.01 38
Josh Phegley 7.03 1.00 35
Derek Norris 7.32 0.84 77

 

Not really any surprises, to be honest. The only catcher I was really surprised to find in the top 10 was Welington Castillo. He has averaged the fewest raw points for any of the top catchers, but a lower price point has allowed him to consistently exceed value this season. Baseball is a game of splits though, so while the above list is needed as a reference point, here is the important list. This one shows the best actual plays at catcher, meaning matchups are broken down by handedness:

Player Opp. Hand points/game (DK) Plus/Minus Games
Derek Norris L 9.3 2.9 20
Carlos Ruiz L 8.57 2.75 7
Josh Phegley R 8.64 2.58 14
Francisco Cervelli L 8.69 2.56 13
Stephen Vogt R 9.2 2.41 64
Travis d’Arnaud R 9.17 2.28 18
J.T. Realmuto L 8.5 2.27 18
John Jaso R 9 2.16 8
Buster Posey L 9.29 2.1 21

 

• Derek Norris was an auto-play versus lefties last year, and while there has been less fanfare this year due to San Diego’s disappointing season, this shows he is still an excellent play versus lefties.

• Carlos Ruiz has always been better versus lefties, but his .400 BABIP, smaller sample size, and terrible lineup that surrounds him suggests he’s a likely outlier.

• The Athletics have their fingerprints all over the leaderboard with both members of last year’s Jaso/Norris platoon joining this year’s Vogt/Phegley platoon as top plays.

• Phegley’s 28% upside against right-handed pitching actually ranks just outside the top 10 overall players in the category. McCann has an identical 28% upside against righties, although his +1.52 Plus/Minus ranked a bit below where I drew the line for the second table, perhaps making him a better tournament play.

  • Nick Hundley and Stephen Vogt have been the most consistent plays vs righties, both above 50% in the category.

• Against lefties, Derek Norris’ 75% consistency is tied with Brock Holt for #1 in the MLB this year. Carlos Ruiz is not far behind at 71%, while Matt Wieters and Francisco Cervelli have had the most upside at 42% and 38% respectively. The samples in all cases were much smaller against lefties than righties, though, so that take into consideration.

I think this study shows that going with value at catcher is often going to be the right play. While several of the higher priced catchers like Posey and McCann have been pretty good overall in terms of exceeding expected value, their Plus/Minus numbers are much lower than playing someone like Cervelli or Realmuto on the right side of their split.