Using our Stacking tool found within our Player Models, this piece will identify some of the top stacks of the weekend. Check out our Correlations page as well to find hidden edges in stacking positions and games.
Quarterback + Wide Receiver
- Ryan Fitzpatrick: $5,900 DraftKings; $7,600 FanDuel
- Mike Evans: $7,000 DraftKings; $7,500 FanDuel
This duo was unable to connect often in Week 9, and that should keep ownership reasonable in what looks like a great spot. Despite catching just one pass last week, Evans saw 10 targets last Sunday, most on the Bucs. His 47 targets from Fitzpatrick are the most the quarterback has to any receiver this season and no other player has even reached 30 targets from Fitzpatrick.
He has also routinely smashed when his salary has dropped to this range.
Evans hasn’t been this cheap since opening day, when he scored 30.7 points on DraftKings.
Washington is allowing the eighth-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks, and Tampa sits as a three-point home favorite in a game with a total of 51.5 (see updated betting data here). Home favorite quarterbacks in games with a total of at least 50 own an average plus/minus of +3.7.
Running Back + D/ST
- Aaron Jones: $5,000 DraftKings; $6,500 FanDuel
- Green Bay Packers: $3,100 DraftKings; $3,900 FanDuel
After accounting for just 29% of the Packers’ rushing yards through the first five weeks, Jones has seen his role increase over the past month, gaining 60% of Green Bay’s rush yards. Combine that with being a 10-point favorite, and Jones becomes a player fit to succeed in Week 10.
Defenses haven’t fared as well against Brock Osweiler as initially expected, but his yards per attempt have decreased every week since he thrashed the Bears in Week 6.
The Packers have a top-tier pass rush that ranks fourth in adjusted sack rate according to Football Outsiders. The Dolphins rank 20th in adjusted sack rate allowed.
Quarterback + Running Back + Wide Receiver + Opposing Running Back
- Philip Rivers: $6,000 DraftKings; $8,200 FanDuel
- Melvin Gordon: $9,000 DraftKings; $8,900 FanDuel
- Keenan Allen: $7,100 DraftKings; $7,900 FanDuel
- Jalen Richard: $4,800 DraftKings; $5,400 FanDuel
This stack gives us a little bit of everything. For starters, Rivers and Gordon fall into the same trends discussed above for both Fitzpatrick and Jones respectively. The Chargers are 10-point home favorites in a game that owns a total of 50. Only the Rams and Chiefs own higher Vegas implied team totals than the Chargers.
Oakland is second in the NFL in points allowed, despite playing just eight games in nine weeks. They are giving up a +4.26 plus/minus to opposing quarterbacks this season, including a +9.25 point effort to Nick Mullens (who?) last Thursday.
After missing some time due to injury, Gordon returned fully healthy following the Chargers’ bye week. He played on 88% of snaps in Week 9, and has five rushing touchdowns in his last three games. Gordon has a 21% target share on the season.
Allen has just one touchdown in 2018, but he still owns a 28% target share for the Chargers. In games where Rivers has met or exceeded 300 yards passing, Allen averages 7.7 receptions and 103 yards.
The Raiders have played two games since trading Amari Cooper to the Cowboys. The team leader in targets for those games? Richard, whose 12 targets and 23% target share are five targets and 10% higher than the next closest receiver. The Chargers rank second in receiving yards per game allowed to running backs this year.
Quarterback + Running Back + Wide Receiver + Opposing Wide Receiver
- Drew Brees: $6,300 DraftKings; $8,400 FanDuel
- Mark Ingram: $4,500 DraftKings; $6,800 FanDuel
- Michael Thomas: $8,100 DraftKings; $8,600 FanDuel
- Tyler Boyd: $7,500 DraftKings; $7,800 FanDuel
This game has some real scoring potential if the Bengals can overcome the loss of A.J. Green at receiver and continue to put up points. The Saints rank second in the NFL in scoring average (34.9 points per game), while the Bengals are the fifth-fastest team in terms of overall pace. Both of these teams are inside of the top four in points allowed to opposing quarterbacks.
Ingram has ceded a good bit of work to Alvin Kamara, but his price hasn’t been this low in more than a year. He has historically put up big numbers when his salary dips under $5,000.
Ingram isn’t a great bet to catch a touchdown from Brees, but if the game is high scoring he could still find his way into the end zone. The Bengals allow the most DK points to opposing running backs.
Thomas has gone up by $500 on DraftKings after his Week 9 explosion, but his price stayed the same on FanDuel, and he is still likely too cheap. Only Adam Thielen is scoring more fantasy points on a per-game basis, and Thomas is also top 10 in Weighted Opportunity Rating. His 87% catch rate is by far the best in the league.
Due to the aforementioned injury to Green, as well as John Ross coming off a multi-week layoff (it is still unclear if he will even suit up on Sunday), Boyd is the only major target left in this offense. He owns a 23% target share on the year and a 74% catch rate. The Saints are allowing the most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers.
Be sure to check out our industry-leading NFL News and Models, along with our Multi-Lineup Builder, Stack builder, ownership projections and more. Also, make sure to check out our other tools for the 2018 season, including the Matchups page, DFS Contests Dashboard, NFL Ownership page, and NFL Correlations page.
Pictured above: Drew Brees (9), Michael Thomas (13)
Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports