The NBA Player Models are the lifeblood of our NBA product. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool and so much more.
Let’s dive into our models, going position-by-position, looking at guys with some of the highest Ceiling Projections, along with players who are standing out as values with our predictive Projected Plus/Minus metric.
Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
Top Ceiling: Russell Westbrook vs. Miami Heat – $11,300 DraftKings, $9,400 FanDuel
Our models loved Westbrook on Monday, and he promptly went for 17/12/14 with three swipes against the Hornets for one of his best games of the season.
With LeBron James out indefinitely, the models love Brodie again tonight in what’s projected to be the highest-scoring game on the slate. He’s a far better play on FanDuel due to his four-figure salary, resulting in a 98% Bargain Rating.
Top Value: Ricky Rubio vs. Washington Wizards – $5,200 DraftKings, $5,500 FanDuel
Rubio lit up the Garden on Sunday as he went for a career-high 37 points and 10 assists in the Cavs’ win over the Knicks. Collin Sexton left that game early with a knee injury which was later determined to be a torn meniscus.
With Sexton out indefinitely, Rubio should see plenty of minutes moving forward, potentially as a starter. Rubio averaged 19.0 points, 9.0 assists, 4.0 rebounds, and 1.5 steals in two starts earlier this season. His price is sure to shoot up in the coming days and weeks, so play him tonight at a bargain before that happens.
Top Ceiling: Zach LaVine vs. Dallas Mavericks – $7,600 DraftKings, $8,000 FanDuel
LaVine has a lofty ceiling, but he also has a sturdy floor. He’s gone for at least 22 points and 35 fantasy points in each of his last seven games, including at least 42 fantasy points in three of his last four.
The pace and over/under of this game don’t figure to be highly favorable, but LaVine’s consistency this season and ability to put up points in bunches makes him our highest-ceiling play at SG on tonight’s slate.
Top Value: Terry Rozier at Memphis Grizzlies – $6,300 DraftKings, $5,300 FanDuel
The scariest thing about Rozier is his value on tonight’s slate. He was highlighted in Monday’s article, but his price has curiously remained stagnant, so it’s time to go back to him.
The former Celtic has posted 46 points, 10 rebounds, five assists, and three steals across 73 minutes in his last two games, including a season-high 29 points in his last outing. He doesn’t appear hampered by injury, and he’s riding high from two solid showings. Don’t overthink this one with his 95% Bargain Rating on FanDuel.
Top Ceiling: Jimmy Butler at Los Angeles Lakers – $9,600 DraftKings, $9,700 FanDuel
Butler busted out of his mini-slump Monday, dropping 31 points, eight assists, five rebounds, and a block on the Nuggets in an ugly Miami loss.
The superstar wing has a lot going for him tonight as a high-ceiling play with a sub-$10K salary. His matchup with Los Angeles represents a major pace-up spot, as the Lakers have the second-highest pace in the NBA compared to Miami’s third-slowest.
Top Value: Duncan Robinson at Los Angeles Lakers – $3,700 DraftKings, $3,900 FanDuel
Robinson has scored at least 20 fantasy points in two of his last three games, and while his ceiling is relatively low (35.97 DraftKings, 33.62 FanDuel), he’s got the playing time (28.2 MPG) and long-range upside that we’re looking for in players priced this low.
Top Ceiling: Giannis Antetokounmpo at New York Knicks – $12,300 DraftKings, $11,500 FanDuel
After posting a dud by his standards against the Knicks last week, Giannis has been superb in his last two outings, posting averages of 30.0 points, 17.0 rebounds, 4.5 assists, and 3.0 combined blocks/steals.
After losing by 15 at home to New York, Giannis will likely be fired up for a rematch. Expect him to put on a show at the Garden with a healthy 4.33 Opponent Plus/Minus to boot.
Top Value: Jeff Green vs. Indiana Pacers – $3,400 DraftKings, $3,700 FanDuel
Back to the well for another pick, as Green checks in with a lot of value on tonight’s slate. I mentioned him Monday as a value play with Michael Porter Jr (back) out, but now the value is even more substantial as Nikola Jokic will miss tonight’s game after his shove of Markieff Morris resulted in a one-game suspension.
Green posted a modest 13 points and two rebounds Monday, but it was his 33 minutes of playing time that was most notable. He should see similar minutes for Denver’s thinned-out frontcourt tonight, making him a strong value at his sub-$4K price tag.
Top Ceiling: Nikola Vucevic vs. Dallas Mavericks – $8,800 DraftKings, $7,700 FanDuel
Vooch is our top ceiling play tonight, facing a very friendly Dallas team which gives him a favorable +3.36 Opponent Plus/Minus. His 96% Bargain Rating on FanDuel makes him a preferred play on that site.
After a strong start to the season, he’s fallen off in recent games, though he went 11/13/5/1/3 in his last contest — his best game in two weeks. Vooch’s usage has waned, but the matchup with Dallas is just too juicy. He’s got a +12.41 Plus/Minus on FanDuel (highest) and +4.24 on DraftKings (second highest) to go with his high ceiling.
Top Value: Robert Covington at Phoenix Suns – $4,300 DraftKings, $5,200 FanDuel
Just like last season, RoCo started slow, but he’s turned it around over his last four games with averages of 10.8 points, 5.3 rebounds, 2.5 assists, 3.0 triples, and 2.6 combined blocks/steals.
Covington’s cheap price tag is even more enticing when factoring in that tonight’s matchup between the Suns and Trail Blazers has the second-highest over/under on the slate at 220.5.
Note: Covington is only eligible as a Center on DraftKings.