The NBA Player Models are the lifeblood of our NBA product. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool and so much more.
Let’s dive into our models, going position-by-position, looking at guys with some of the highest Ceiling Projections, along with players who are standing out as values with our predictive Projected Plus/Minus metric.
Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
Top Ceiling: LaMelo Ball at Milwaukee Bucks – $10,400 DraftKings, $9,600 FanDuel
Ball has been masterful this season, but he’s been incredible over his last three. In that span, the reigning ROY has dished 13 assists in each contest while averaging 15.7 points, 8.0 boards, and a steal.
His ceiling is lower than Trae Young or Luka Doncic, but Ball gets the added benefits of a highly-favorable game environment and low ownership. The matchup between the Hornets and Bucks has easily the highest over/under on the slate at a robust 230.
Top Value: Armoni Brooks at Oklahoma City Thunder – $3,500 DraftKings, $3,800 FanDuel
Brooks’ role has diminished significantly from his rookie season to this one, but he’s come alive recently thanks to increased playing time. With Jalen Green (hamstring) out for at least one more game, Brooks should continue to get meaningful run off the bench. He’s averaged 21.8 minutes over his last four games while scoring at least 11 points thrice in that span.
Top Ceiling: D’Angelo Russell at Washington Wizards – $8,400 DraftKings, $7,900 FanDuel
Russell has played excellent basketball for Minnesota this season, averaging 19.4 points, 6.1 assists, 3.8 rebounds, and 2.9 triples across 32.3 minutes per game. He’s recently erupted, and his ceiling is understandably high for tonight’s matchup with the Wiz.
Over his last two games, D-Lo has gone nuclear with 28.0 points, 9.5 dimes, 6.0 boards, 4.5 triples, and 2.5 combined blocks/steals while logging his first double-double of the campaign. It’s a pace-down spot for the T-Wolves, but the defensive matchup is certainly favorable.
Top Value: Caris LeVert vs. Atlanta Hawks – $5,400 DraftKings, $5,400 FanDuel
Though he’s off to a disappointing start to the season, LeVert still has upside in spades, and our model projects him for a 50-point ceiling in tonight’s favorable matchup with the Hawks.
LeVert’s production has been anything but predictable thus far, but he’s encouragingly logged at least 27 minutes and 13 shot attempts in each of his last four games. He’s not a recommended cash game play, but at this price, he warrants some exposure in tournaments.
Top Ceiling: Luka Doncic at New Orleans Pelicans – $11,600 DraftKings, $10,600 FanDuel
Doncic has excelled since returning from his three-game absence related to knee and ankle injuries. Over his last three, the Slovenian point has averaged 28.0 points, 9.7 dimes, and 7.7 boards and went off for a 25/10/10 triple-double against the Cavs on Monday.
The last time Doncic posted a triple-double was a 32/15/12 game against the Spurs on Nov. 12, where he topped 70 FanDuel points and 80 DraftKings points. He’s understandably got one of the highest ceilings of any player on the slate and sports positive values for Opponent Plus/Minus and Pace Differential.
Note: Doncic is eligible at PG/SF on DraftKings and PG/SG on FanDuel
Top Value: Kevin Huerter at Indiana Pacers – $4,400 DraftKings, $4,800 FanDuel and Cam Reddish – $3,400 DraftKings, $4,700 FanDuel
It was too tough to pick between these two Atlanta wings, so I’m including them both. The matchup with Indiana presents a positive Opponent Plus/Minus and Pace Differential.
In five games prior to his early exit against the Knicks, Reddish was on the rise, averaging 14.2 points, 3.0 rebounds, and 1.4 triples. He’s a GTD tonight, but if he plays, he’s a fantastic value on DraftKings.
If Reddish is out, Huerter would be a fine value on both sites, but if Reddish is in, Huerter is still in play on FanDuel. At $1,000 cheaper, Reddish would be the preferred play on DraftKings.
Top Ceiling: Giannis Antetokounmpo vs. Charlotte Hornets – $12,100 DraftKings, $11,200 FanDuel
Charlotte has been a fantastic matchup for opposing bigs this season, and Giannis should feast in this one. Charlotte ranks third in pace and 26th in defensive rating and has surrendered the most fantasy points to opposing centers and third-most to opposing power forwards.
Giannis has had his way against other exploitable matchups, going for 32 points and 20 boards against the Magic and 21 points and 19 boards against the Thunder. Expect another huge game tonight.
Top Value: Chimezie Metu at Los Angeles Clippers – $3,800 DraftKings, $4,400 FanDuel
With Harrison Barnes (foot) and Mo Harkless (knee) questionable tonight, Metu finds himself in another advantageous position. He’s averaged 11 points, 11 rebounds, and two combined blocks/steals across his last two contests and is fresh off a double-double against the Lakers with his most minutes of the season (35).
Top Ceiling: Nikola Jokic at Orlando Magic – $11,800 DraftKings, $11,000 FanDuel
It’s not productive to try coming up with new superlatives for Jokic, as his upside is well documented. He’s averaging at least 26 points for the second straight season while pulling down a career-high 13.7 boards. He’s got two triple-doubles to his credit, thanks to his elite assist numbers.
On the season, Orlando has allowed the sixth-most fantasy points, sixth-most rebounds, and second-most assists to opposing centers. Denver ranks dead-last in pace, while Orlando ranks 15th, providing Jokic a quality defensive matchup and pace-up spot.
Top Value: PJ Washington vs. – $5,100 DraftKings, $4,900 FanDuel
Over his last three games, Washington has averaged 15.0 points, 4.7 rebounds, 4.3 triples, 2.3 assists, and 2.0 combined blocks/steals across 30 minutes per contest. That coincides with Mason Plumlee’s (calf) absence, and the Plumlee has already been ruled out tonight. Though Washington didn’t start the Hornets’ last game, he still logged 32 minutes compared to starter Nick Richards’ seven.