The NBA Player Models are the lifeblood of our NBA product. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool and so much more.
Let’s dive into our models, going position-by-position, looking at guys with some of the highest Ceiling Projections, along with players who are standing out as values with our predictive Projected Plus/Minus metric.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams.
Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
Point Guard
Top Ceiling: Trae Young vs. San Antonio Spurs – $9,900 DraftKings, $9,000 FanDuel
Young has averaged 29 points and 10 assists across his last four games, including a 43-point performance to snap the Suns’ 11-game win streak and a 34/11 game in Tuesday’s blowout win over Indiana.
He’s got a huge Opponent Plus/Minus and big Pace Differential tonight against the Spurs who just traded one of their best defenders in Derrick White. This matchup has a 232.5 over/under, which is the second-highest on the slate
Top Value: Nah’Shon “Bones” Hyland at Boston Celtics – $3,800 DraftKings, $4,400 FanDuel
Is it officially Bones season in Denver? Monte Morris is out tonight with a concussion, and Austin Rivers is a GTD with a non-COVID illness. Bones went off for 22/6/3 in 25 mins against the Knicks on Tuesday, and he’ll look to keep that momentum going against Boston tonight.
Bones has played at least 25 minutes in six games this season and scored at least 30 fantasy points in three of them. A similar workload should be expected tonight if Rivers is ruled out.
Shooting Guard
Top Ceiling: Donovan Mitchell vs. Orlando Magic – $8,800 DraftKings, $8,800 FanDuel
Spida has averaged 24.3 points, 6.7 rebounds, 6.7 assists, 2.3 stocks and 4.0 triples in three games since returning to Utah’s starting lineup, and he’s got a strong matchup on tap with Orlando tonight.
This one gives Mitchell a solid Opponent Plus/Minus and Pace Differential against one of the NBA’s worst teams. In his first meeting with the Magic this season, Mitchell put up 21 points, seven boards and seven dimes. He’s priced pretty reasonably given his lofty salary, so he’s got to be in consideration.
Top Value: Devin Vassell at Atlanta Hawks – $4,000 DraftKings, $4,900 FanDuel
It’s time to unleash Vassell! He went for 18/3/3/2 against Cleveland on Wednesday and matched his season-high with 16 shot attempts in the process. Derrick White got traded yesterday, so Vassell should slot into the starting lineup right away.
Our model projects him to play 32 minutes against the Hawks, and when given that much playing time, he’s excelled. In 11 games with at least 30 minutes, he’s averaged 16.6 points, 5.6 rebounds, 1.5 assists, 3.0 triples and 1.0 steals this season. Vassell’s price might not be this low again, so take advantage of the savings.
Note: Vassell is eligible at SG on FanDuel and SF/PF on DraftKings
Small Forward
Top Ceiling: DeMar DeRozan vs. Minnesota Timberwolves – $9,700 DraftKings, $10,400 FanDuel
DeRozan is on another tear, as he’s averaged 37.5 points, 6.0 rebounds, 5.5 assists and 1.0 steals across his last four games while scoring at least 30 points in each contest.
The veteran is enjoying one of the best seasons of his storied career, and tonight’s matchup is absolutely fantastic for DFS purposes. DeRozan will get a big Pace Differential and Opponent Plus/Minus with a 240.5 over/under tonight that is pure insanity.
Note: DeRozan is eligible at SG/SF on FanDuel and PF on DraftKings
Top Value: Kelly Oubre at Detroit Pistons – $5,900 DraftKings, $6,100 FanDuel
Oubre continues to be undervalued, as his price is quite affordable on both sites. With Gordon Hayward out of action, Oubre has seen his playing time and usage tick up.
Our model projects Oubre for 36 minutes tonight, and in 10 games with at least 36 minutes this season, he’s averaged 22.2 points, 5.4 rebounds, 2.2 assists, 1.7 steals and 3.6 triples. This is a pace-down spot for Charlotte but one that offers a strong Opponent Plus/Minus and a healthy 226.5 over/under.
Power Forward
Top Ceiling: Jayson Tatum vs. Denver Nuggets – $9,600 DraftKings, $9,200 FanDuel
He’s cleared 40 fantasy points just once in his last five games and averaged 43.8 fantasy points on the season. Tatum has a pretty stable floor, but his ceiling is sky-high. He’s topped 60 fantasy points on six occasions this season, and tonight, he gets a good Opponent Plus/Minus against the Nuggets. Our model gives him the highest ceiling of any forward on tonight’s seven-game slate.
Top Value: Jerami Grant vs. Charlotte Hornets – $6,000 DraftKings, $5,200 FanDuel
Grant hasn’t quite been himself since returning to the lineup after a long absence, but he’s still got incredible potential and a bargain-bin salary.
Grant gets a huge Pace Differential and solid Opponent Plus/Minus against Charlotte, and he’s coming off his best game in a long time with a 20/4/4/1/2 line in his last game out. I wouldn’t trust Grant in a cash lineup, but he’s absolutely worthy of rostering in tournaments.
Center
Top Ceiling: Joel Embiid vs. Oklahoma City Thunder – $11,900 DraftKings, $11,000 FanDuel
Is there really a need to point out just how amazing Embiid has been this season and especially over the last six weeks? Well, too bad because I’m going to do it anyway.
The big man has averaged 62.5 fantasy points over his last 10 games, posting 36.0 points, 12.1 rebounds, 4.7 assists, 1.7 blocks and 1.3 triples in that span. His ceiling is a few points below Nikola Jokic, but Embiid is cheaper and has a better matchup. He gets a big pace-up spot and huge Opponent Plus/Minus. There should be additional offensive opportunities with Seth Curry and Andre Drummond shipped to Brooklyn and James Harden not available for his Sixers debut.
Top Value: P.J. Washington at Detroit Pistons – $5,200 DraftKings, $4,800 FanDuel
It’s unclear if Montrezl Harrell will make his Hornets debut tonight, but if he does, he’s available at $4,800 on FanDuel and doesn’t appear in the player pool on DraftKings. Make sure to check on Harrell’s status before setting lineups.
If Harrell plays, he’s worth a shot in tournaments, but if sits, I’ll roll with Washington for at least one more game. Over his last two, Washington has averaged 10.0 points, 8.5 rebounds, 2.0 assists, 1.0 steals and 1.0 triples. With Gordon Hayward and Jalen McDaniels sidelined again, he could be in line for another strong performance in this quality matchup.
