There are some great games tonight for DFS players, but Charlotte/Sacramento really takes the cake. Charlotte is third in pace, and Sacramento is eighth. Charlotte is 29th in defensive rating, while Sacramento is 26th. The stars have aligned for a fast-paced, high-scoring affair filled with a litany of excellent fantasy options. We’ll be highlighting more than a few in today’s article.
The NBA Player Models are the lifeblood of our NBA product. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool and so much more.
Let’s dive into our models, going position-by-position, looking at guys with some of the highest Ceiling Projections, along with players who are standing out as values with our predictive Projected Plus/Minus metric.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams.
Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
Point Guard
Top Ceiling: Trae Young vs. Brooklyn Nets – $10,000 DraftKings, $9,800 FanDuel
Here we are with Trae Young yet again, though it shouldn’t be surprising to read his name here. The young man has been absolutely balling over the last two weeks.
Over his last seven games, Young has averaged 29.6 points, 10.6 assists, 5.0 rebounds, and 3.3 triples while producing six double-doubles. Tonight’s matchup presents a favorable Opponent Plus/Minus and pace-up spot. There’s no reason to believe Young’s hot streak ends here.
Top Value: Davion Mitchell at Charlotte Hornets – $3,400 DraftKings, $4,500 FanDuel
The 3-and-D specialist is a great value on both sites, though his price tag is far more appealing on DraftKings, where he comes in as one of the cheapest players on the slate.
Mitchell has scored at least 28 fantasy points in three of his last five games while logging 26.8 minutes per contest in that span. In the most favorable game environment imaginable, there’s room to fit him into lineups as a salary-saver extraordinaire.
Shooting Guard
Top Ceiling: James Harden at Atlanta Hawks – $11,200 DraftKings, $10,400 FanDuel
Harden has a tremendous ceiling tonight thanks to a high Opponent Plus/Minus and a lofty 224.5 over/under. Atlanta has surrendered the third-most fantasy points, and the most assists to opposing point guards this season.
Harden fell a bit flat Wednesday against the Rockets in a dream scenario, but he should be expected to bounce back in another favorable spot against the Hawks. In the month of December, Harden is averaging 20.5 points, 10.8 boards, 8.5 rebounds, and 1.3 swipes.
Top Value: Kelly Oubre vs. Sacramento Kings – $7,800 DraftKings, $7,400 FanDuel
It’s not often we get a value play who’s priced so highly, but when you have a guy with a 50-point ceiling with a sub-$8K price tag, you play the cards you’re dealt.
With Charlotte’s COVID-19 announcements rolling out Saturday and spilling into Monday, Oubre stepped into the starting lineup, and he’s flourished with additional minutes. In three starts this week, he’s averaged 28.3 points, 6.0 rebounds, 5.0 triples, 2.3 steals, and just 1.7 turnovers. That level of production is incredible for a guy with such an affordable price tag.
Teammate Cody Martin offers plenty of value here as well, but the ceiling is a bit lower.
Small Forward
Top Ceiling: Miles Bridges vs. Sacramento Kings – $7,700 DraftKings, $8,400 FanDuel
Giannis Antetokounmpo is an elite player with an astronomical ceiling on every single slate. Rather than bore you with his rehashed exploits, I’m going to pivot to a guy in a phenomenal situation.
As I’ve reiterated numerous times in this article, the Charlotte/Sacramento game should be gangbusters for DFS purposes, and Bridges is one just a few healthy difference-makers left for the shorthanded Hornets. Over three games this week, he’s averaged 23/5/5 with two triples and a steal.
Top Value: Garrison Mathews vs. Milwaukee Bucks – $4,400 DraftKings, $4,700 FanDuel
Mathews has carved out a starting role for the Rockets, and he’s excelled in that position, making him a fantastic value on tonight’s loaded slate.
Over his last six games (all starts), Mathews has averaged 16.8 points, 4.0 triples, 3.2 rebounds, and 1.2 steals across 34.7 minutes. Tonight’s matchup with the Bucks sports a 224.5 over/under, tied for second-highest on the slate.
Power Forward
Top Ceiling: Kevin Durant at Atlanta Hawks – $10,800 DraftKings, $10,600 FanDuel
Durantula sat out Wednesday’s loss to the Rockets for rest purposes, but Brooklyn apparently couldn’t keep it together without him. He’s sure to come out firing tonight in an important matchup with the upstart Hawks.
In seven games prior to his DNP, KD averaged 28/7/7 with 2.1 combined blocks/steals, so his ceiling is obviously sky-high on this slate. Tonight’s Brooklyn/Atlanta matchup has a 224.5 over/under, tied for second-highest on the evening.
Top Value: Herb Jones vs. Detroit Pistons – $4,000 DraftKings, $5,000 FanDuel
Jones is off to a strong start in his rookie season, and he’s coming off his best performance as a pro. In Wednesday’s overtime loss to the Nuggets, Jones piled up 19 points, seven boards, three dimes, two blocks, and a swipe.
He’s started each of the Pels’ last nine games, averaging 8.9 points, 3.8 boards, 2.1 steals, 2.0 assists, and 1.1 blocks, but if he can build off of Wednesday’s solid offensive scoring, he could be a tremendous fantasy play each and every night thanks to his already elite defensive numbers.
His $4,000 price tag on DraftKings makes him one of the best bargains on the entire slate.
Center
Top Ceiling: Anthony Davis at Oklahoma City Thunder – $9,600 DraftKings, $10,000 FanDuel
You couldn’t tee up a matchup much better for Anthony Davis tonight, as Oklahoma City has been the most generous fantasy defense to opposing power forwards this season (Davis has PF/C eligibility on both sites). In fact, OKC has surrendered the most blocks and assists to opposing power forwards as well.
Davis and the Lakers are coming off an ugly loss to Memphis last night, and AD and Co. should be extra motivated to finish the back-to-back with a victory over the hapless Thunder. Over his last six games, Davis has averaged 23.0 points, 9.8 boards, 3.9 combined blocks/steals, and 2.8 dimes.
Top Value: Tristan Thompson at Charlotte Hornets – $3,500 DraftKings, $4,800 FanDuel
Thompson finished with his first double-double of the season Wednesday against Orlando, and he’s in a good position to do so again tonight. Richaun Holmes has already been ruled out due to an eye injury, and Thompson should see an uptick in volume as he did Wednesday.
It should be noted that Thompson logged 21 minutes, Alex Len logged 17, and Chimezie Metu didn’t take the court. Sacramento is seeking a fourth straight win in this one, and Thompson figures to be heavily involved off the bench against a Charlotte team that’s been decimated by injuries over the last week.
