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Each week, our Data Dive articles use 10 of these metrics to highlight notable players for the week’s European Tour DFS slate.
Long-Term Metrics
Last week I rebuked Henrik Stenson for quitting the U.S. Open a week earlier. Stenson promptly went out and won the BMW International by three shots. This week I’ll rebuke Rory McIlroy for being priced $2,500 higher than anyone else in the field and for the goofy photo above.
It’s an elite field as far as the Euro Tour goes, as the world’s best golfers who aren’t in Akron, Ohio, this week will be teeing it up at Le Golf National in Paris, France, for the 100th Open de France.
For more on the Open de France history and field, check out the Euro Breakdown on Wednesday.
Adjusted Round Score: 68.1, Rory McIlroy
It should come as no surprise that McIlroy, ranked fourth in the Official World Golf Rankings, has the best Long-Term Adjusted Round Score (LT Adj Rd Score) in the field. Somewhat surprisingly to me at least is that he is a full stroke better than second-place Danny Willett, who has a 69.1. McIlroy finished fourth at the Open de France in 2010, but the course has undergone significant renovations since then. Rory is coming off a missed cut at the U.S. Open, but note that the last four times he has played a tournament outside of the U.S. he has won twice and finished no worse than sixth.
Greens in Regulation: 73.8%, Rafael Cabrera-Bello
Cabrera-Bello led this event after 36 holes last year and ended up finishing fifth. His 73.8 percent Long-Term Greens in Regulation (LT GIR) is incredibly impressive, and his 70.1 LT Adj Rd Score is seventh in this week’s field. Interestingly, golfers with similar LT GIR and LT Adj Rd Scores have traditionally provided a negative return on DraftKings, so . . . he’s great, but buyer beware.
Driving Accuracy: 72.1%, Gregory Havret
Havret not only leads the field in Long-Term Driving Accuracy (LT DA), but he also is tied for 13th in LT GIR. For those inclined to combine data with narrative, you may be interested to know that Havret won the French Amateur Championship three years in a row from 1997 to 1999. You may also be interested to know that he has missed the cut at this event for three straight years from 2013 to 2015. Apparently this Frenchman prefers playing in Scotland, where two of his three Euro Tour victories have come, including a 2007 Playoff win against Phil Mickelson at the Barclays Scottish Open.
Scrambling: 62.8%, Luke Donald
Donald is one of only four golfers in the field with a Long-Term Scrambling (LT Scr) of at least 60 percent. His 69.8 LT Adj Rd Score is fourth in the field. Donald has been a little shaky lately with two missed cuts in his last four events, but he has made the cut at the Open de France in his only two starts. Golfers with similar scrambling ability and comparable Adj Rd Scores have accrued a +3.12 Plus/Minus on DraftKings with admirable 57 percent Consistency.
Plus/Minus, Consistency, Long-Term Score Avg and other premium exclusive. metrics are accessible via our free Ratings page.
Birdies Per Tournament: 15, Ricardo Gouveia
McIlroy actually leads the field in Long-Term Birdie average at a massive 16.5 per tournament, but next up is Gouveia, who is also tied for 11th in LT GIR, so he should certainly give himself ample opportunity to roll in some birdies this week. Golfers who average roughly 15 birdies per tournament have historically returned solid value on DraftKings.
Recent Metrics
Bernd Wiesberger won the Open de France in 2015 — his third victory on the Euro Tour. Graeme McDowell went back-to-back at this track in 2013 and 2014.
Adjusted Round Score: 68.1, Martin Kaymer
Rory in fact has the best Recent Adj Rd Score in the field at 67.8. (This is the part where I say that I asked my editor to rename this article Euro Data Dive: The Rory Story and he chimes in to say that I never asked him or something else incredibly clever.) [Editor’s Note: I did come up with the subtitle ‘The Rory Story,’ so there’s that.]
Kaymer is no slouch and very worthy of highlighting. He has finished seventh or better in three of his last six starts. Kaymer won here in 2009 and finished fourth last year. His 69.7 Course Adj Rd Score at Le Golf National is tied for fourth in the field. Only two-time Open de France Champion McDowell has a better Course Adj Rd Score among golfers who have made at least four starts. Kaymer’s LT Adj Rd Score is sixth best in the field. Golfers with comparable Recent and LT Adj Rd Scores have traditionally provided a +3.00 Plus/Minus on DraftKings.
Greens in Regulation: 75.7%, Nicolas Colsaerts
To be fair, Anders Hansen has the highest Recent GIR in the field, but the mark is from one tournament — the only one he’s played in the past eight months. Colsaerts on the other hand has played in four tournaments while accumulating this elite GIR percentage. Colsaerts’ 69 Recent Adj Rd Score is tied for sixth in the field and his 305.3 Recent Driving Distance (DD) is fourth. Golfers in comparable recent form with elite Recent GIR marks have produced a large +5.92 Plus/Minus on DraftKings.
Scrambling: 66.9%, Padraig Harrington
Padraig has missed the cut in both of his attempts at the Open de France and has not been playing well recently, missing the cut in six of his last eight starts. Harrington will need to make good use of his scrambling abilities, as his appalling 45.4 percent Recent GIR is third-worst in the field.
Birdies Per Tournament: 18.7, Matthieu Pavon
Pavon is a young Frenchman looking to make noise in his Nation’s Championship. Pavon plays primarily on the European Challenge Tour (similar to Web.com Tour for PGA), where he is the second-ranked golfer in their Road to Oman rankings. In his last five tournaments, Pavon has finished seventh or better in three of them and in the top 15 every time but once.
Odds to Win: 5.9%, Francesco Molinari
Rory is the prohibitive favorite at this event with gigantic 18.2 percent Odds to Win. Next up, is actually Kaymer at 6.7 percent. Molinari and Lee Westwood have equal Odds at 5.9 percent, but Molinari’s 69.7 Course Adj Rd Score in six starts is tied with Kaymer for fourth and his LT Adj Rd Score is tied for third in the field. Golfers comparable to Molinari and Kaymer in terms of Odds and Course Adj Rd Scores have been extremely profitable and consistent in a small sample.
Bonus
Because French fries are yummy.
Pro Trends: 10, Rory McIlroy
You probably could have guessed this one. Rory is the only player in the field with double-digit Pro Trends. His most profitable Pro Trend this week is “At least 2% Vegas-Implied Odds of Winning,” which has traditionally accounted for a +3.92 Plus/Minus on DraftKings. But because his Odds to Win are so massive this week, I ran my own trend to see what happens when golfers have “At least 18% Vegas-Implied Odds.” Whoa.
