DraftKings NASCAR DFS Picks for Talladega: Fantasy NASCAR Strategy and Picks for the Jack Link’s 500

The third drafting race of the 2025 NASCAR Cup Series season takes place Sunday at Talladega Superspeedway.

For cash games, the ideal strategy at these tracks is always to take non-backmarkers starting in the back. That means we’ll be looking to stash guys like Justin Haley, Shane van Gisbergen, Erik Jones, and Ricky Stenhouse Jr. in our lineups.

At drafting races, NASCAR limits car speeds through aerodynamic modification and engine restrictions. As a result, cars run in a big pack thanks to the draft.

That makes it easy to both move forward and move backward in the race with either the right draft or push or by getting caught out with no drafting help and dropping to the rear of the field like a rock.

With unpredictability the name of the game, I take a different approach to NASCAR DFS analysis and lineup building at these types of races.

That’s because, long term, ~85-90% of the finishing order is unpredictable, meaning game theory becomes more important than handicapping the drivers themselves. So I’ll take you through my personal Talladega game theory and then which drivers it may impact the most.

For those with a lower risk tolerance, I’ll provide some alternative options, but the best way to see what I think is best is by using my NASCAR projections in the NASCAR Models on FantasyLabs, complete with floor, ceiling, median, and ownership projections.

My projections, along with Stephen Young’s from RotoGrinders, are available in our new NASCAR DFS package. You can read more about what the package entails here.

Let’s not skip the best part — my Perfect% metric — a metric that tells you how often certain racers appear in the optimal lineup when running 10,000 race simulations.

And don’t forget about the tools that FantasyLabs has to offer like our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups or our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.

So, without further ado, here’s my strategy guide and NASCAR DFS picks for the Jack Link’s 500 at Talladega Superspeedway.

Jack Link’s 500 DraftKings DFS Tournament Strategy

My goal when I play NASCAR DFS tournaments is always to finish in first place. So, I have no problem employing strategies that might make the common DFS player uncomfortable.

If you find your risk tolerance isn’t the same as mine, once again, I’ll recommend gravitating toward using my projections and Perfect% metric as your default option.

However, I think there are some nice leverage spots in this year’s Jack Link’s 500, starting with the chalk in the back.

Erik Jones, Ricky Stenhouse Jr., Ross Chastain, and Chase Elliott should be the chalk in this race. All four drivers start 30th or worse, making them the place-differential kings of this slate. You’ll notice all four drivers have a projected ownership at or above their projected Perfect%.

But in unpredictable races with a $100,000 first-place prize on the line, I think not only should we get closer to their Perfect%, but actually gain some leverage by going even lower than their Perfect% in our personal exposures.

That allows us more exposure to drivers with nearly the same upside, since almost anyone can win this race, and certainly every driver except possibly B.J. McLeod and J.J. Yeley have the ability to finish inside the top 10. And heck, if it turns into a crash fest, even those two could find their way into the top 10.

My theory is that even if I have Chase Elliott in 25% of my rosters, then I still have plenty of lineups with him in it if he ends up optimal. But what’ll happen is I’ll then be overweight on some drivers who project to be far under-rostered relative to their projected optimal. Inevitably, they’ll end up paired in various combinations with Elliott in those 25% of lineups, which more than makes up for the lost leverage I have on Elliott, should he end up optimal.

So, who are the drivers we want to get extra exposure to? I’ll list those drivers as my tournament picks.

Jack Link’s 500 DraftKings DFS Tournament Picks

There are a few specific drivers I want to be intentionally overweight on.

First, there’s four drivers starting 28th or worse that project to be at least 5% under-rostered. They are Shane van Gisbergen, Cody Ware, Anthony Alfredo, and Carson Hocevar.

All four are in equipment capable of finishing inside the top 10, and none are big names with the exception of Hocevar, at least in terms of non-road course races. Hocevar might even be a “smaller” name at drafting tracks given his lack of results at big superspeedways and Spire Motorsports’ underperformance at Daytona.

These are the perfect drivers to go a bit overweight on thanks to the leverage you’ll get and the upside they have by starting in the back.

Note: while I like being overweight on all four of these drivers, this is still a highly random race. It’s very, very likely only 1-2 of these drivers end up in the optimal lineup. But by using various combinations of them with your chalkier options, you can gain some leverage on the field even if the chalk hits.

Next, there’s four more drivers starting midpack that could do some damage.

Alex Bowman, A.J. Allmendinger, Ty Dillon, and Riley Herbst all start between 18th and 23rd and project to be under-rostered by 2-5%. Now, I’m not saying go crazy on these drivers, as they cap out at a maximum Perfect% of 17.7% (Bowman), with Herbst’s Perfect% the loweset of the four at 8.9%.

But again, all four project to be rostered in a lower percentage of lineups than my model thinks is optimal. So I don’t mind going a bit overweight on each of these four drivers in top-heavy tournaments. That means playing Herbst in the neighborhood of 10%, with Bowman up to around 20%.

Note: while I like being overweight on all four of these drivers, their total Perfect% sums to 50.7%. That means you should be, on average, using one of these drivers every other lineup (with very few, if any, lineups sprinkled in with two or more of these drivers).

Jack Link’s 500 DraftKings DFS Tournament Leans

Three drivers starting in the back half of the 20s project to be slightly under-rostered, and I’d consider them leans. I think all three end up close to their Perfect% in terms of usage, but I do think at least a couple, if not all three, end up with even lower usage than my model suggests.

They are John H. Nemechek, Noah Gragson, and Daniel Suarez.

I’d play these three pretty close to their Perfect% numbers in a multi-entry portfolio and be happy if they go under-rostered by the field.

Jack Link’s 500 DraftKings DFS Paul Menard Pick of the Week

I don’t have one single PMPOTW this week, but I’ll talk about a trio of names who show some slight value in my model’s Perfect% – Ownership% calculation.

Austin Cindric popped up as a bit of a surprise, and I could easily see him actually being over-rostered. But just in case he isn’t, I’d play him close to his Perfect% of 13.9%, which is close to one in six lineups. Team Penske could definitely focus on Cindric here, as both Ryan Blaney and Joey Logano are on solid footing in the points standings, while Cindric probably needs a win to get in the playoffs.

Two other names start in the mid-portion of the teens: Michael McDowell and Chase Briscoe. Together, at least one of the two ends up in the optimal lineup about 25% of the time, but they project at just 22% usage, so you should have at least one in about a quarter of your lineups, with more of that weight toward Briscoe than McDowell.