The NBA Player Models are the lifeblood of our NBA product. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool and so much more.
Let’s dive into our models, going position-by-position, looking at guys with some of the highest Ceiling Projections, along with players who are standing out as values with our predictive Projected Plus/Minus metric.
Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
Top Ceiling: Chris Paul vs. Houston Rockets – $9,200 DraftKings, $9,400 FanDuel
CP3 leads the NBA in assists, but he’s also scoring, rebounding and stealing with efficiency. He’s averaged 15.8 points, 14.2 assists, 4.8 rebounds and 1.6 steals across his last five with five straight double-doubles.
Those numbers are 12.0 points, 8.5 assists and 4.0 rebounds with a whopping 6.0 steals and 1.0 blocks in two games against his former team this season. The matchup between Suns and Rockets sports a 234.5 over/under, the highest on the slate
Top Value: Tyus Jones vs. Portland Trail Blazers – $3,100 DraftKings, $3,800 FanDuel
Ty-Jo went for 27 points, nine dimes, one board and one steal when he started against New Orleans on Tuesday in place of the injured Ja Morant. Morant is questionable tonight, and Jones is still priced under $4,000 on both sites. That’s criminal.
Jones has had success as a starter this season, averaging 12.1 points, 6.2 assists, 3.5 rebounds and 1.2 steals across 14 starts. Tonight’s matchup with the shorthanded Blazers gives him a 228 over/under and strong Opponent Plus/Minus.
Top Ceiling: Devin Booker vs. Houston Rockets – $8,700 DraftKings, $8,800 FanDuel
D-Book has averaged 27.5 points, 4.3 assists, 4.1 rebounds and 1.0 steals in the month of February, and he’s got a chance to put up some more gaudy numbers in an excellent spot tonight.
The Suns/Rockets matchup has the highest over/under on the slate at a massive 234.5, and Booker has a big Opponent Plus/Minus and Pace Differential. Booker put up at least 26 points, five rebounds, five assists and two stocks against the Rockets in each of his two matchups with them this season.
Top Value: Buddy Hield vs. Washington Wizards – $6,200 DraftKings, $6,000 FanDuel
Hield has been fantastic since arriving in Indiana, averaging 21.7 points, 6.3 rebounds, 4.3 assists and 4.3 triples in three straight starts. He went off for a season-high 36 points with eight triples Tuesday, and he’ll look to continue the strong play tonight.
Chris Duarte and Malcolm Brogdon are both out tonight, leaving Hield and Tyrese Haliburton to man the backcourt for the short-handed Pacers. The game environment figures to be a good one with a 224 over/under and a mere 0.5-point spread.
Top Ceiling: DeMar DeRozan vs. Sacramento Kings – $10,400 DraftKings, $10,500 FanDuel
In his first season with the Bulls, DeRozan has done something that Michael Jordan never did. He’s scored at least 35 points in six straight while shooting 50% from the floor, joining Wilt Chamberlain as the only other player in NBA history to do so.
In that span, DeRozan averaged 38.7 points, 5.7 rebounds and 5.5 assists, so he offers a potent combination of high floor and higher ceiling. Tonight’s matchup with the Kings offers the second-highest over/under on the slate at a huge 234.
Note: DeRozan is eligible at SG/SF on FanDuel and PF on DraftKings.
Top Value: Bruce Brown vs. New York Knicks – $4,000 DraftKings, $6,500 FanDuel
It’s totally fine to play Bruce Brown on FanDuel, but why do that when you can get him for $2,500 cheaper on DraftKings? Seriously, that’s an incredible value.
Brown started Monday and absolutely dominated with easily his best effort of the season. He went off with 19 points, six boards, six dimes, five steals and three swats across 38 minutes. With Kyrie Irving ineligible to play at home and Ben Simmons not ready to debut, Brown should see plenty of run tonight.
Note: Brown is eligible at SG on FanDuel and SF/PF on DraftKings.
Top Ceiling: Pascal Siakam at Minnesota Timberwolves – $9,300 DraftKings, $9,700 FanDuel
Spicy P put up just 23.5 fantasy points in his last game out thanks to 7-of-19 shooting and a pedestrian 18/5/1 line. That may drive his ownership down, and we should take advantage of the dip.
In nine games prior to that dud, he averaged 51.6 fantasy points, so he has the ceiling to provide 5x or 6x value even at a salary above $9,000. He gets a solid Opponent Plus/Minus with excellent Pace Differential in a game with a healthy 230.5 over/under.
Top Value: Jalen Smith vs. Washington Wizards – $3,900 DraftKings, $5,700 FanDuel
Smith excelled as a starter for Phoenix earlier in the season, and after being relegated to the bench, he’s found success since his trade to the Pacers. Smith has averaged 13.3 points, 7.3 rebounds, 1.0 assists and 1.0 stocks across 20.3 minutes in three games with the Pacers.
Smith gets a 98% Bargain Rating on DraftKings, and Washington has been particularly bad against opposing PFs and Cs this season. With Myles Turner and Isaiah Jackson still out, Indiana’s frontcourt will likely be Smith and Goga Bitadze for the second straight game.
Top Ceiling: Nikola Jokic at Golden State Warriors – $12,400 DraftKings, $11,300 FanDuel
It’s not a great Opponent Plus/Minus, but Jokic gets a strong Pace Differential in tonight’s matchup with the Warriors. At this point, we’ve got to realize that Jokic is essentially matchup-proof.
Our model identifies that this is a below-average matchup for centers, but the Joker is still the only player on the slate with an 80-point ceiling. He’s averaged 24.4 points, 13.9 rebounds, 8.3 assists, 1.6 stocks and 1.4 triples in the month of February.
Top Value: Zach Collins at Oklahoma City Thunder – $3,300 DraftKings, $4,000 FanDuel
Since returning to the court, Collins has averaged 7.3 points, 5.0 rebounds, 2.5 assists and 1.0 steals for 19.5 fantasy points in four games despite playing limited minutes.
Collins has a 34-point ceiling on both sites and gets one of the best matchups for opposing bigs when the Spurs take on the Thunder tonight. At such a low price, he should be in plenty of lineups tonight as a salary-saving option.
Note: Collins is eligible at PF on FanDuel and C on DraftKings.