Wednesday features an 11-game slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.
Let’s dive into some of the top plays using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics.
Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
It’s time to buy low on Luka Doncic. He played 33.9 minutes in his last game, and he responded with 62.0 DraftKings points. Doncic has averaged 1.49 DraftKings points per minute this season, and his playing time should continue to trend upwards.
He’s facing a tough matchup Wednesday vs. the Warriors – they rank first in the league in defensive efficiency – but Doncic is priced at a discount at $10,600 on DraftKings. That makes him just the fourth-most expensive point guard on today’s slate, and he’s been priced as high as $11,500 this season. Doncic has historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +2.06 with a comparable salary (per the Trends tool).
The Pacers’ backcourt is extremely shorthanded at the moment. Malcolm Brogdon, Caris LeVert, and a host of others are not expected to play, leaving the team with only a few options at guard. Keifer Sykes is one of them. He’s racked up at least 35.1 minutes in back-to-back games, and he racked up 39.5 DraftKings points Tuesday vs. the Knicks. I wouldn’t expect a repeat performance, but Sykes has averaged 0.76 DraftKings points per minute this season. If he sees another sizable workload on Wednesday, he should be able to provide excellent value on his $3,300 price tag.
Anfernee Simons remains an elite option at the position for the shorthanded Blazers. They’re going to be without Damian Lillard and C.J. McCollum once again on Wednesday, and Simons racked up a ridiculous 60.75 DraftKings points in their absence on Monday. He’s significantly more expensive for Wednesday’s matchup vs. the Heat, but he’s still clearly underpriced.
LaMelo Ball is an interesting tournament option. The Hornets lead the slate with an implied team total of 119.0 points, but Ball’s ownership should be minimal. He’s limited since returning to the lineup following a stint in health and safety protocols, and he’s posted a negative Plus/Minus in seven of his past eight games on FanDuel. Still, Ball is one of the best per-minute producers at the position, and he owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.01.
The Heat are going to be without Jimmy Butler on Wednesday after he suffered an ankle injury vs. the Warriors on Monday. That means Tyler Herro is going to have to do a bit more offensively. He’s already carried a huge minute workload recently, logging at least 35.1 minutes in four straight games, and he’s increased his usage rate to 30.8% with Butler off the court. He’s averaged 1.06 DraftKings points per minute in that situation, so he should be able to pay off his current price tag.
Sticking with the Heat, Caleb Martin is also going to have to pick up the slack for Butler. He’s already blossomed into an important part of the Heat’s rotation, and he’s scored at least 32.0 DraftKings points in back-to-back games. He’s averaged 0.88 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, and he’s currently projected for 36 minutes in our NBA Models. That makes him too cheap at just $4,500 on DraftKings.
Kevin Huerter returned to the Hawks’ lineup in their last game, and they threw him right back into the fire. He racked up 36.8 minutes, which is a lot of playing time for someone who costs just $4,600. Huerter hasn’t been great on a per-minute basis – he’s averaged 0.74 DraftKings points per minute this season – but players with comparable salaries and minute projections have historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +2.73.
Donovan Mitchell has been a consistent source of value for the Jazz recently, posting an average Plus/Minus of +6.29 over his past 10 games on FanDuel. He leads the position with 10 Pro Trends on Wednesday, and his $8,600 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 94%.
There are some big names at small forward on Wednesday, but none stand out as a good value. I’d rather go with Miles Bridges, who is massively underpriced at just $7,100 on DraftKings. Bridges was priced closer to $8,000 before entering health and safety protocols, and his current price tag comes with a Bargain Rating of 93%. He also racked up 41.7 minutes and 58.5 DraftKings points in his last outing. He should be able to do some damage vs. the Pistons, who rank just 22nd in defensive efficiency.
Furkan Korkmaz drew the start for the 76ers in their last outing, who were playing without starting point guard Tyrese Maxey. If he’s going to draw another start on Wednesday, he’ll be tough to avoid at just $4,700. Korkmaz has averaged 0.84 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, and he played a team-high 36.2 minutes in their last contest. Korkmaz responded with 51.75 DraftKings points in that game, and he should be able to return value easily with a comparable workload vs. the lowly Magic.
Joe Ingles became the first player on the Jazz to enter health and safety protocols, so he will not suit up Wednesday vs. the Nuggets. That should open up a few additional minutes for Rudy Gay. Gay has historically been an excellent producer on a per-minute basis, and he’s averaged 0.89 DraftKings points per minute this season.
Scottie Barnes has been priced down to just $6,300 on FanDuel, and that’s simply too cheap a price tag for him. It results in a Bargain Rating of 98%, and Barnes leads the position with 11 Pro Trends. He’s still working his way back following a stint in health and safety protocols, but he logged 32.8 minutes in a blowout win on Monday. He’s currently projected for 35 minutes in our NBA Models, and he’s averaged 1.06 FanDuel points per minute over the past month.
You can go in a few different directions at the top of the power forward position, but it’s never a bad idea to lock in Giannis Antetokounmpo. He’s put together another monster fantasy season, averaging 1.72 DraftKings points per minute, and he could be asked to play a few additional minutes on Wednesday. The team currently has a handful of players out of the lineup, and Antetokounmpo is coming off 35.6 minutes in his last game. The Bucks offense is also implied for 117 points vs. the Raptors, which is the third-highest mark on the slate.
Nassir Little stands out as one of the best plays of the day for the shorthanded Blazers. Not only are Lillard and McCollum out, but Larry Nance Jr. and Cody Zeller are also not expected to play. That should open up plenty of minutes and shot attempts for Little vs. the Heat. He was excellent in their last contest, finishing with 39.75 DraftKings points over 35.8 minutes, and his $4,600 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 88%.
Bobby Portis is another member of the Bucks who deserves consideration on Wednesday. He’s a more appealing target on FanDuel – his $5,700 salary results in a Bargain Rating of 92% — and his price tag has decreased by -$1,100 over the past month. Portis has averaged an excellent 1.13 FanDuel points per minute this season, and he’s projected for 29 minutes in our NBA Models.
The Pistons are getting a bit healthier, and Trey Lyles returned to the lineup in their last game. He played 34.3 minutes in his first game back, and he’s expected to see a similar workload on Wednesday. Lyles can do some damage with that much playing time given his average of 0.94 DraftKings points per minute.
Domantas Sabonis is coming off a disastrous performance Tuesday vs. the Knicks, but he logged at least 39 minutes for the third straight game. Sabonis scored at least 57.0 DraftKings points in his previous two performances, so he has some bounce-back appeal for the shorthanded Pacers. He’s been asked to serve as more of a distributor with Brogdon and LeVert out of the lineup, increasing his assist rate by +7.9% in games without both players. That added upside as a distributor gives Sabonis a higher ceiling than usual.
Damian Jones saw another sizable workload for the Kings on Tuesday, finishing with at least 29 minutes for the second straight game. He wasn’t quite as productive in that contest – he racked up just 19.0 DraftKings points – but it bodes well for his success moving forward. Jones has averaged 0.97 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, so he can pay off his minimal salary across the industry with a comparable workload on Wednesday.
Can you trust Christian Wood for the Rockets? He served a one-game suspension in their last game after refusing to play in the second half of their game vs. the Nuggets on New Year’s Day. If he steps right back into his usual role, he’s undoubtedly too cheap at $6,200 on DraftKings. Wood was priced at $8,800 on DraftKings in his final game before his suspension, so that represents a massive decrease in salary.
Montrezl Harrell remains out for the Wizards, so Daniel Gafford should continue to handle most of the center minutes. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in four straight games, and Gafford has averaged 1.06 DraftKings points per minute this season. His price tag has gotten a bit steeper, but he’s in an outstanding spot vs. the Rockets. They rank fourth in pace and 29th in defensive efficiency, and the Wizards’ implied team total of 118.5 ranks second on the slate.