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NBA DFS Breakdown (Tuesday, Dec. 14): So Much Value, So Few Studs

Tuesday features a three-game slate starting at 7:30 p.m. ET.

Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics.

Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.

Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.

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Point Guard

Stud

The injuries and COVID-19 absences are starting to pile up across the NBA. Every team is dealing with multiple absences, and there are a host of key players who are currently questionable. Make sure to monitor the news and take advantage of late swap depending on how things break.

Kevin Durant is currently questionable for the Nets, and James Harden would obviously become an elite option if he’s ruled out. LaMarcus Aldridge has already been ruled out, and Harden has increased his usage rate to 36.6% with both players off the court this season. He’s averaged 1.48 DraftKings points per minute in that situation.

Harden also stands out as one of the better pure values on FanDuel, where his $10,400 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 94%.

Value

The Knicks have plenty of minutes available at the moment. R.J. Barrett, Quentin Grimes, and Obi Toppin are all out due to health protocols, making Derrick Rose a strong option at just $5,000 on DraftKings. He’s averaged 1.03 DraftKings points per minute this season, and he’s currently projected for 30 minutes in our NBA Models. Rose has historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +5.39 with a comparable salary and minute projection as a member of the Knicks (per the Trends tool).

Immanuel Quickley is also worth some consideration. He’s not as effective on a per-minute basis, but he’s projected for more minutes and is slightly cheaper across the industry.

Fast Break

Steph Curry will in all likelihood break the all-time 3-point record this evening, so I don’t blame you if want him on your DFS roster. I prefer Harden given the Nets’ current absences, but Curry leads the position with an average of 1.34 FanDuel points per minute this season. He also stands out as a better value on FanDuel given his Bargain Rating of 97%.

Cameron Thomas has been a decent source of value for the Nets recently. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in three straight games, scoring at least 21.5 DraftKings points in each contest. He should continue to see a solid handful of minutes with their roster so shorthanded.

Shooting Guard

Stud

Alec Burks missed the Knicks’ last game due to personal reasons, but he’s not currently listed on the injury report. That means he should be back in the lineup, and he should step right back into his starting point guard role. Burks is coming off back-to-back subpar games, but he has largely been excellent for the Knicks this season. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in six of his past nine games on FanDuel, where his $5,600 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 92%.

Value

Bruce Brown has typically thrived when given the opportunity to play big minutes, and the Nets may have no choice but to unleash him on Tuesday. In addition to Aldridge, they’ve already ruled out De’Andre Bembry, Jevon Carter, James Johnson, and Paul Millsap due to health and safety protocols, and Joe Harris and Kyrie Irving remain out of the lineup as well. Brown is currently projected for 28 minutes in our NBA Models, and he’s averaged 0.92 DraftKings points per minute over the past month.

Fast Break

Jordan Poole has taken his game up a notch this season. He’s coming off a poor showing in his last game, but he scored at least 32.25 DraftKings points in each of his three previous contests. His salary has dipped to just $5,800 vs. the Knicks, making him an appealing buy-low option.

The Raptors didn’t really need Gary Trent Jr. yesterday, which limited him to just 31 minutes in a blowout win. However, he logged at least 38.7 minutes in his previous two contests, so he has the potential to play much more on today’s slate. He’s averaged 0.86 DraftKings points per minute this season, so he should be able to pay off his current price tag across the industry.

Small Forward

Stud

Scottie Barnes is in a similar situation to Trent. He was limited in the Raptors’ last outing, but he’s been an absolute workhorse for them recently. He’s averaged 38.2 minutes over his previous eight games, and he’s averaged 0.96 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. Barnes leads the position with eight Pro Trends on DraftKings, where his $7,400 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 86%.

Value

Is it time for the Kevin Knox renaissance? Knicks’ fans would certainly love to see it, and Knox delivered some quality minutes for the Knicks in their last contest. He finished with 18 points thanks to five made 3-pointers, and he also chipped in five rebounds, one assist, and a steal. He’s an interesting value option at just $3,600 on DraftKings.

Fast Break

If Durant is active, you can certainly consider him on a small slate. He’s coming off a monster performance in his last outing, finishing with 76.9 FanDuel points over 41.5 minutes, but that game did come with Harden out of the lineup. I wouldn’t expect the same kind of production on Tuesday, but Durant still owns the top Ceiling Projection on the slate. He’s a stronger option on FanDuel given his Bargain Rating of 89%.

The top implied team total belongs to the Suns, and they could be a bit overlooked. They’re not dealing with as many absences as the other squads, so the ownership on their players could be modest. Mikal Bridges stands out as an excellent value on FanDuel at just $5,000. He hasn’t been the best producer on a per-minute basis this season, but he’s projected for 36 minutes vs. the Blazers.

Power Forward

Stud

Pascal Siakam has quietly started to heat up. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in five of his past six games on FanDuel, and he remains reasonably priced at $7,800. His 10 Pro Trends on FanDuel are tied for the second-most at the position, and only Durant is projected for more than his 38 minutes. Siakam has displayed much of a ceiling, but he’s one of the safer pay-up options.

Value

Sticking with the Raptors, Chris Boucher has been unleashed given all of the Raptors’ absences in the frontcourt. He’s still not playing quite as much as fantasy owners would like, but Boucher is capable of doing damage in limited minutes. He’s played at least 22.3 minutes in three straight games, and he’s responded with at least 23.25 DraftKings points in each of them. Overall, he’s averaged 1.14 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. He’s underpriced across the industry.

Fast Break

Julius Randle hasn’t been the same fantasy monster that he was last season, but his skill set remains the same. He can contribute in every category across the board, giving him a strong ceiling on a nightly basis. He leads the position with 11 Pro Trends on FanDuel, where his $8,600 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 91%.

Robert Covington moved to the bench in the Blazers’ last game, but he still finished with 33.6 minutes. His production in that game was fluky – he finished with five steals and four blocks – but that’s still a ton of playing time for someone who costs just $3,400 on DraftKings.

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Center

Stud

The Suns are going to be an important team at center on this slate. Deandre Ayton has missed their past two games, and he’s currently questionable with an illness. If he’s able to suit up, he’s worth some consideration across the industry. Ayton has averaged 1.14 DraftKings points per minute this season, and he owns one of the better individual matchups vs. the Blazers.

However, the more appealing situation would be Ayton being ruled out. That would allow JaVale McGee to earn another start at center, and he would be essentially a must-play in that situation. McGee is one of the best per-minute contributors in basketball – he’s averaged 1.52 DraftKings points per minute over the past month – and he’s finished with 31.25 and 48.75 DraftKings points in his past two starts. That kind of production is simply unfadable at $4,200.

Value

Nicolas Claxton is another outstanding source of value at the position. He’s priced at just $3,100 on DraftKings, and he should see a solid volume of minutes with Aldridge and Millsap sidelined. Claxton hasn’t been as productive this season as he was last year, but he doesn’t need to be at essentially a minimum salary.

Fast Break

Larry Nance Jr. has center eligibility on DraftKings, and he moved into the starting lineup in the Blazers’ last game. He ultimately didn’t see a huge spike in playing time, but he finished with 29.0 DraftKings points over 25.6 minutes. He’s gotten a bit more expensive for Tuesday’s contest, but he’s still underpriced at just $4,300.

Jusuf Nurkic is a maddening fantasy player. His ceiling is basically capped at 30 minutes, and he can play less than 20 if he struggles with foul trouble. Still, there’s no denying his upside. He’s averaged 1.30 FanDuel points per minute over the past month, which trails only McGee among Tuesday’s centers. He’s also priced at just $6,000 on FanDuel, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 97%.

Tuesday features a three-game slate starting at 7:30 p.m. ET.

Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics.

Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.

Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.

Start Your PRO Trial Today

Lineup builder and optimizer

Real-time DFS models

Data-driven analysis & tutorials

Point Guard

Stud

The injuries and COVID-19 absences are starting to pile up across the NBA. Every team is dealing with multiple absences, and there are a host of key players who are currently questionable. Make sure to monitor the news and take advantage of late swap depending on how things break.

Kevin Durant is currently questionable for the Nets, and James Harden would obviously become an elite option if he’s ruled out. LaMarcus Aldridge has already been ruled out, and Harden has increased his usage rate to 36.6% with both players off the court this season. He’s averaged 1.48 DraftKings points per minute in that situation.

Harden also stands out as one of the better pure values on FanDuel, where his $10,400 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 94%.

Value

The Knicks have plenty of minutes available at the moment. R.J. Barrett, Quentin Grimes, and Obi Toppin are all out due to health protocols, making Derrick Rose a strong option at just $5,000 on DraftKings. He’s averaged 1.03 DraftKings points per minute this season, and he’s currently projected for 30 minutes in our NBA Models. Rose has historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +5.39 with a comparable salary and minute projection as a member of the Knicks (per the Trends tool).

Immanuel Quickley is also worth some consideration. He’s not as effective on a per-minute basis, but he’s projected for more minutes and is slightly cheaper across the industry.

Fast Break

Steph Curry will in all likelihood break the all-time 3-point record this evening, so I don’t blame you if want him on your DFS roster. I prefer Harden given the Nets’ current absences, but Curry leads the position with an average of 1.34 FanDuel points per minute this season. He also stands out as a better value on FanDuel given his Bargain Rating of 97%.

Cameron Thomas has been a decent source of value for the Nets recently. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in three straight games, scoring at least 21.5 DraftKings points in each contest. He should continue to see a solid handful of minutes with their roster so shorthanded.

Shooting Guard

Stud

Alec Burks missed the Knicks’ last game due to personal reasons, but he’s not currently listed on the injury report. That means he should be back in the lineup, and he should step right back into his starting point guard role. Burks is coming off back-to-back subpar games, but he has largely been excellent for the Knicks this season. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in six of his past nine games on FanDuel, where his $5,600 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 92%.

Value

Bruce Brown has typically thrived when given the opportunity to play big minutes, and the Nets may have no choice but to unleash him on Tuesday. In addition to Aldridge, they’ve already ruled out De’Andre Bembry, Jevon Carter, James Johnson, and Paul Millsap due to health and safety protocols, and Joe Harris and Kyrie Irving remain out of the lineup as well. Brown is currently projected for 28 minutes in our NBA Models, and he’s averaged 0.92 DraftKings points per minute over the past month.

Fast Break

Jordan Poole has taken his game up a notch this season. He’s coming off a poor showing in his last game, but he scored at least 32.25 DraftKings points in each of his three previous contests. His salary has dipped to just $5,800 vs. the Knicks, making him an appealing buy-low option.

The Raptors didn’t really need Gary Trent Jr. yesterday, which limited him to just 31 minutes in a blowout win. However, he logged at least 38.7 minutes in his previous two contests, so he has the potential to play much more on today’s slate. He’s averaged 0.86 DraftKings points per minute this season, so he should be able to pay off his current price tag across the industry.

Small Forward

Stud

Scottie Barnes is in a similar situation to Trent. He was limited in the Raptors’ last outing, but he’s been an absolute workhorse for them recently. He’s averaged 38.2 minutes over his previous eight games, and he’s averaged 0.96 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. Barnes leads the position with eight Pro Trends on DraftKings, where his $7,400 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 86%.

Value

Is it time for the Kevin Knox renaissance? Knicks’ fans would certainly love to see it, and Knox delivered some quality minutes for the Knicks in their last contest. He finished with 18 points thanks to five made 3-pointers, and he also chipped in five rebounds, one assist, and a steal. He’s an interesting value option at just $3,600 on DraftKings.

Fast Break

If Durant is active, you can certainly consider him on a small slate. He’s coming off a monster performance in his last outing, finishing with 76.9 FanDuel points over 41.5 minutes, but that game did come with Harden out of the lineup. I wouldn’t expect the same kind of production on Tuesday, but Durant still owns the top Ceiling Projection on the slate. He’s a stronger option on FanDuel given his Bargain Rating of 89%.

The top implied team total belongs to the Suns, and they could be a bit overlooked. They’re not dealing with as many absences as the other squads, so the ownership on their players could be modest. Mikal Bridges stands out as an excellent value on FanDuel at just $5,000. He hasn’t been the best producer on a per-minute basis this season, but he’s projected for 36 minutes vs. the Blazers.

Power Forward

Stud

Pascal Siakam has quietly started to heat up. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in five of his past six games on FanDuel, and he remains reasonably priced at $7,800. His 10 Pro Trends on FanDuel are tied for the second-most at the position, and only Durant is projected for more than his 38 minutes. Siakam has displayed much of a ceiling, but he’s one of the safer pay-up options.

Value

Sticking with the Raptors, Chris Boucher has been unleashed given all of the Raptors’ absences in the frontcourt. He’s still not playing quite as much as fantasy owners would like, but Boucher is capable of doing damage in limited minutes. He’s played at least 22.3 minutes in three straight games, and he’s responded with at least 23.25 DraftKings points in each of them. Overall, he’s averaged 1.14 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. He’s underpriced across the industry.

Fast Break

Julius Randle hasn’t been the same fantasy monster that he was last season, but his skill set remains the same. He can contribute in every category across the board, giving him a strong ceiling on a nightly basis. He leads the position with 11 Pro Trends on FanDuel, where his $8,600 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 91%.

Robert Covington moved to the bench in the Blazers’ last game, but he still finished with 33.6 minutes. His production in that game was fluky – he finished with five steals and four blocks – but that’s still a ton of playing time for someone who costs just $3,400 on DraftKings.

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Center

Stud

The Suns are going to be an important team at center on this slate. Deandre Ayton has missed their past two games, and he’s currently questionable with an illness. If he’s able to suit up, he’s worth some consideration across the industry. Ayton has averaged 1.14 DraftKings points per minute this season, and he owns one of the better individual matchups vs. the Blazers.

However, the more appealing situation would be Ayton being ruled out. That would allow JaVale McGee to earn another start at center, and he would be essentially a must-play in that situation. McGee is one of the best per-minute contributors in basketball – he’s averaged 1.52 DraftKings points per minute over the past month – and he’s finished with 31.25 and 48.75 DraftKings points in his past two starts. That kind of production is simply unfadable at $4,200.

Value

Nicolas Claxton is another outstanding source of value at the position. He’s priced at just $3,100 on DraftKings, and he should see a solid volume of minutes with Aldridge and Millsap sidelined. Claxton hasn’t been as productive this season as he was last year, but he doesn’t need to be at essentially a minimum salary.

Fast Break

Larry Nance Jr. has center eligibility on DraftKings, and he moved into the starting lineup in the Blazers’ last game. He ultimately didn’t see a huge spike in playing time, but he finished with 29.0 DraftKings points over 25.6 minutes. He’s gotten a bit more expensive for Tuesday’s contest, but he’s still underpriced at just $4,300.

Jusuf Nurkic is a maddening fantasy player. His ceiling is basically capped at 30 minutes, and he can play less than 20 if he struggles with foul trouble. Still, there’s no denying his upside. He’s averaged 1.30 FanDuel points per minute over the past month, which trails only McGee among Tuesday’s centers. He’s also priced at just $6,000 on FanDuel, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 97%.