NFL Week 10 features a Sunday Night Football showdown between the New England Patriots and the Baltimore Ravens at 8:20 p.m. ET.
If you’re unfamiliar with the single-game NFL DFS format, it differs a bit on DraftKings and FanDuel. On DraftKings, you have one “captain” spot and five flexes. The captain will score 1.5x fantasy points, but he also costs 1.5x salary. That means if you want to roster Patrick Mahomes at captain and take advantage of the scoring boost, you’ll have to pay $20,100 as opposed to $13,400.
FanDuel’s single-game format features one “MVP” spot and four flexes. The MVP also scores 1.5x fantasy points, but he doesn’t cost any additional salary. That takes away a bit of the strategy and makes the goal simple: get your highest-scoring player in the MVP spot.
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The three most expensive players on today’s slate all play for the Chiefs. They are headlined by Mahomes, who has been brilliant through his first nine games this season. He leads the league with an adjusted yards per attempt of 9.6, tossing 25 touchdowns compared to just one interception. He’s been dominant from a fantasy perspective in his past two starts, scoring at least 33.88 DraftKings points in each.
Mahomes should feast in this matchup against the Raiders. He leads the slate with an Opponent Plus/Minus of +1.8, and has historically done some of his best work against the Raiders. Mahomes posted an average Plus/Minus of +6.38 in six career starts against Las Vegas (per the Trends tool).
Mahomes also stands out from a Vegas perspective. The Chiefs are currently implied for 32.0 points, and Mahomes has historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +7.92 in 23 career starts, with a comparable implied team total.
Mahomes’ top pass catchers are also available as stud options. Tyreek Hill is coming off a massive performance in his last outing, finishing with 18 targets, nine receptions, 113 yards and two touchdowns.
Hill is in an elite spot this week against the Raiders. He plays the majority of his snaps in the slot and Pro Football Focus gives Hill the second-largest advantage in terms of PFF grade at the WR position in Week 11.
Travis Kelce is always a valuable option in DFS, but his appeal diminishes a bit in the single-game format. He has a huge edge over the field at the TE position on most weeks, but he’s listed the same way as running backs and wide receivers in the single-game format.
Still, it’s hard to ignore his production recently. He’s logged 12 targets in back-to-back weeks, and scored at least 27.9 DraftKings points in both contests. That production plays regardless of what position he’s listed at.
His individual matchup vs. Nick Nkiwatkoski isn’t as good as Hill’s, but Kelce is as matchup-proof as it gets. He was able to rack up 27.8 DraftKings points in his first matchup vs. the Raiders this season, so he can clearly find success in this matchup.
Kelce also has a slightly better correlation with Mahomes than Hill (0.57 vs. 0.43), which could give him a slight edge from a stacking perspective.
On the Raiders side, Derek Carr and Josh Jacobs stand out as the stud options.
Carr had his best game of the season in his first matchup vs. the Chiefs, finishing with 27.98 DraftKings points. He was able to rack up 347 passing yards and three touchdowns, and he was able to connect with some of his receivers on deep passes. That’s a big reason why the Raiders were able to secure a 40-32 victory.
That said, I wouldn’t expect a repeat performance. Carr is not known as a guy who racks up big yardage totals, and the Chiefs are strong in terms of pass defense. They currently rank seventh in Football Outsiders’ pass defense DVOA.
Jacobs definitely has the edge over Carr from a matchup perspective. The Chiefs possess one of the worst run defenses in the league — they rank 30th in rush defense DVOA — so Jacobs should be able to have his way with them if this game stays competitive.
Of course, there’s no guarantee that this game stays competitive. The Raiders are listed as 7.5-point underdogs, and Jacobs could end up playing less than expected if the Chiefs jump out to an early lead. Jacobs provides virtually no production in the passing game, so the game script is extremely important for him.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire is next up on the pricing spectrum, but he’s hard to trust at the moment. The Chiefs went with a three-headed committee at the RB position in their last game, with CEH playing on just 40% of the team’s offensive snaps. He was able to salvage his fantasy day by scoring a touchdown, but he ultimately finished with just five carries and five targets.
Darren Waller is priced at just $7,000 on DraftKings, which seems like an absolute steal. His price tag comes with a Bargain Rating of 97%, and Waller remains the focal point of the Raiders’ passing game. He’s posted a negative Plus/Minus in three straight games, but he’s still averaged seven targets per game over that time frame. This is a prime buy-low opportunity.
Nelson Agholor and Henry Ruggs are also available in this range for the Raiders, but they appear to be trending in opposite directions. Agholor provided some solid value for the Raiders during the middle part of the season, but they were dealing with a host of injuries at the WR position at that point. Now that they’ve gotten healthier, Agholor’s production has fallen off a cliff. He’s logged just three catches over the past three weeks.
Ruggs was the first WR taken in last year’s NFL draft thanks in part to his blazing speed. He ran a 4.27 40-yard dash at the combine, which ranks in the 100th percentile according to PlayerProfiler. He’s yet to make a huge impact at the NFL level, but he did finish with 118 yards and a touchdown in his first game vs. the Chiefs. His ability to generate the big play is obviously very appealing from a DFS perspective.
The Chiefs’ secondary pass catching options could be a nice source of value this week. Sammy Watkins has been ruled out again, which should give Demarcus Robinson and Mecole Hardman a boost in production.
Robinson has seen a nice spike in fantasy value recently, scoring at least 11.4 DraftKings points in three of his past four games. He also played on 81% of the Chiefs’ offensive snaps last week, which was his second-highest mark of the season.
Hardman hasn’t seen as many opportunities as Robinson, but he has arguably more upside given his ability to generate big plays. His speed gives him the ability to take any play to the house, and he has the added benefit of serving as the Chiefs’ kick returner.
- Defenses & Kickers — These options are always in play in the single-game format. They typically have more appeal on lower scoring slates, but they are affordable.
- Hunter Renfroe: $4,200 on DraftKings, $8,500 on FanDuel — Hunter has had some relevance in the past as the Raiders slot WR, but his role has dwindled a bit recently. He’s logged just five total targets over the Raiders’ past two games and has played on just 50% of snaps over that time frame.
- Devontae Booker: $2,200 on DraftKings, $9,500 on FanDuel — He benefitted from the Raiders’ last game turning into a blowout, scoring twice in the fourth quarter with the game already in hand. He’s way too expensive on FanDuel, but he could provide some value at his current price tag on DraftKings.
- Le’Veon Bell: $1,400 on DraftKings, $9,000 on FanDuel — He’s another player who is too expensive on FanDuel, and he might be a thin play on DraftKings as well. He finished third among the Chiefs’ RBs in terms snaps last week and finished with just four carries and one target.
- Bryan Edwards: $1,200 on DraftKings, $6,500 on FanDuel — Edwards is still working his way back into the rotation at WR for the Raiders, but his role should only increase moving forward. The Raiders invested a third-round pick on Edwards in the draft last year, so he’s a clear part of their future plans.
- Jason Witten: $800 on DraftKings, $5,500 on FanDuel — Witten needs to score a touchdown to potentially return value, but that is a possibility.
- Darrel Williams: $400 on DraftKings, $6,500 on FanDuel — Williams is dirt-cheap on DraftKings and actually played more snaps that Bell last week. He didn’t record a carry in that game, but he has seen a target in back-to-back weeks.
- Byron Pringle: $200 on DraftKings, $5,500 on FanDuel — Pringle will see a handful of snaps as the Chiefs’ WR4 this week, and anyone who’s going to share the field with Mahomes has at least some fantasy appeal.