NFL Week 10 features a Sunday Night Football showdown between the New England Patriots and the Baltimore Ravens at 8:20 p.m. ET.
If you’re unfamiliar with the single-game NFL DFS format, it differs a bit on DraftKings and FanDuel. On DraftKings, you have one “captain” spot and five flexes. The captain will score 1.5x fantasy points, but he also costs 1.5x salary. That means if you want to roster Lamar Jackson at captain and take advantage of the scoring boost, you’ll have to pay $18,600 as opposed to $12,400.
FanDuel’s single-game format features one “MVP” spot and four flexes. The MVP also scores 1.5x fantasy points, but he doesn’t cost any additional salary. That takes away a bit of the strategy and makes the goal simple: get your highest-scoring player in the MVP spot.
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Jackson has disappointed from a fantasy perspective this season after setting the league on fire during the 2019 campaign. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in just three of his first eight games, thanks to a decline in both passing and rushing production.
Jackson’s passing touchdown rate has dropped from 9.0% to 5.6%, and he’s also averaging approximately 20 fewer passing yards per game. His yards per carry has decreased by a full yard this season, averaging nearly 22 fewer rushing yards per game. Overall, he ranks 12th at the position in terms of fantasy points per game after blowing away the field in that department last season.
Still, Jackson owns easily the top ceiling projection in our NFL Models on this slate despite a relatively poor matchup vs. the Patriots. New England has been a disaster defensively – it ranks 31st in Football Outsiders’ defensive DVOA – but has also played at one of the slowest paces in the league. The Patriots rank 23rd in neutral pace this season, and that mark falls to 29th when trailing by at least seven points. The Ravens are currently favored by seven points in this contest, so that could lead to this game being played at a snail’s pace.
One factor working in Jackson’s favor is his track record as a road favorite. Historically, he has posted a Plus/Minus of +5.52 in that situation (per the Trends tool).
Cam Newton is the only other real “stud” on this slate, but his performances have been lackluster recently. He was able to bounce back with a solid performance against the Jets last week, racking up 24.56 DraftKings points. However, any performance against the Jets has to be taken with a grain of salt.
Newton faces a much stiffer test against the Ravens, who are still one of the best defensive teams in the league. They rank first in rush defense DVOA and seventh in pass defense DVOA, which makes them about as tough of a matchup as possible for a mobile quarterback.
The Patriots are also implied for just 18.25 points, which is a very low mark for 2020. That said, Newton has historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +3.19 in 14 games, with a comparable implied team total since 2014.
Marquise Brown is the only other player priced above $9,900 on DraftKings, and he’s been a boom-or-bust option. Unfortunately, there have been far more busts than booms, and his booms haven’t even been all that impressive. He’s logged zero games with more than 19.8 DraftKings points this season, and he’s been at 12.6 DraftKings points or fewer in six of eight contests.
Brown is expected to draw a tough matchup against J.C. Jackson, who has emerged as the Patriots’ top cornerback. He owns a Pro Football Focus grade of 70.6, which actually gives him a slight edge in this matchup.
Brown makes some sense if you’re looking to stack him with Jackson – they own a correlation of +0.29 – but otherwise he seems like a strong fade candidate.
Finally, Jakobi Meyers deserves some stud consideration for the Patriots. Julian Edelman remains out of the lineup with a knee injury, and Meyers has finished with at least 10 targets in back-to-back weeks. However, N’Keal Harry and newly acquired Isaiah Ford are expected to be available, so the New England receiving group isn’t as barren as it was the past two weeks.
Both of these teams have some key injuries to monitor at the running-back position heading into this contest.
On the Patriots’ side, Damien Harris is questionable with an ankle injury, but he is “hopeful” to play according to NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport. Harris has handled the majority of New England’s rushing opportunities since joining the lineup in Week 4, but that hasn’t necessarily translated to a ton of fantasy value. He does have two games with at least 100 rushing yards, but his lack of involvement in the passing game caps his upside.
Harris will likely need to rack up at least 100 yards or score a touchdown to be fantasy relevant in this contest, which seems unlikely against the Ravens stout, run defense.
If Harris is unable to suit up, it would give a boost in value to Rex Burkhead. He would likely assume the lead back role, but still has a role even if Harris is active. He’s the only New England back active in the running and passing game, which makes him an interesting fantasy option.
James White rounds out the Patriots’ backfield, and he’s the cheapest option of the bunch. Still, he’s very tough to roster. He played just 26% of the Patriots’ offensive snaps last week. White did see five targets in his limited playing time, but he managed to convert those into just four catches for 24 yards.
White has finished with 6.4 DraftKings points or fewer in each of his past three games, and it seems like he’s the odd man out in the backfield at the moment.
On the Ravens’ side, Mark Ingram is expected to rejoin the lineup after missing their past two contests. That creates a major headache in their backfield.
Ingram will join J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards in what seems like a three-headed committee approach. Dobbins is probably the most talented back in the rotation, but he has been priced up pretty drastically across the industry.
Overall, Edwards leads the backfield in terms of projected Plus/Minus in our NFL Models, but Dobbins has the highest ceiling projection. Ingram seems like the easiest fade of the bunch in his first game back, but it’s hard to fully trust any of these options.
Mark Andrews came out of the gates red hot this season, scoring at least 17.6 DraftKings points in three of his first five games. Since then, it’s been nothing but disappointment. He’s logged 6.2 DraftKings points or fewer in each of his past three games, giving him five games with less than 6.2 DraftKings points on the year. That gives him a very low floor for his price tag.
Still, the ceiling is more important for tournaments, and Andrews is always a threat to score a touchdown or two. His price has also come way down across the industry, so this could be a nice time to buy low on him. He is also Jackson’s top receiver in terms of correlation (+0.32), so they are very logical stacking partners.
- Defenses & Kickers — These options are always in play in the single-game format, and they could have more viability than usual in a low-scoring game. That said, I would be wary of rostering the defenses. Both of teams like to run the football, which should limit the number of sacks and turnovers.
- Willie Snead: $5,000 on DraftKings, $8,000 on FanDuel — Snead finished second among the Ravens’ wide receivers in snaps last week, and he’s logged at least four targets in each of his past two games. He seems overpriced on DraftKings, but could make some sense at $8,000 on FanDuel.
- Damiere Byrd: $4,400 on DraftKings, $9,000 on FanDuel — Byrd has been on the field for virtually all of the Patriots’ snaps this season, but it will be interesting to see if that dynamic has changed at all. Meyers has clearly earned some additional playing time given his recent performances, and Ford and Harry will garner some snaps as well. Byrd has been a low-ceiling type of play, so any reduction in snaps could be a big blow to his fantasy value.
- N’Keal Harry: $3,200 on DraftKings, $10,000 on FanDuel — Harry has struggled to live up to expectations after being a drafted in the 2018 first round, and could end up being the odd man out in New England when all is said and done. Still, he’s dirt cheap on DraftKings and was seeing a healthy number of snaps prior to his injury.
- Nick Boyle: $1,400 on DraftKings, $5,000 on FanDuel — Boyle has seen a ton of playing time recently, logging at least 50 offensive snaps in each of his past three games. He’s responded with at least 8.6 DraftKings points in two of those contests, which gives him the potential to be one of the best values on the slate.
- Isaiah Ford: $1,000 on DraftKings, $7,000 on FanDuel — Ford had some flashes in Miami earlier in the year, and the Patriots decided to acquire him before the trade deadline to bolster their receiving corps. He obviously carries plenty of risk in his first game with his new team, but you would expect New England has plans for him after acquiring him from a division rival.
- Devin Duvernay: $200 on DraftKings, $6,000 on FanDuel — I think Boyle is the clear top option to target among the punt plays, but Duvernay is worth some consideration if you need to go super cheap. His playing time has steadily increased this season, and he’s logged three targets in two of his past three games.