This article is one in a series that uses the FantasyLabs Tools to build daily fantasy scouting reports for each of the NHL’s brightest stars.
Is this the year Braden Holtby and the Capitals finally break through the narratives of playoff incompetence? Let’s jump right into his scouting report and analyze his DFS value.
Statistical Breakdown
Here are Holtby’s per-game averages for the past three years:
The Capitals are a strong defensive team, but Holtby is also an elite talent. This season he leads the NHL in both wins and shutouts, and he’s been even better in the playoffs, despite Washington’s lack of overall success.
From a fantasy perspective, Holtby has a solid +0.66 DraftKings Plus/Minus this season. With an average ownership of 13.7 percent he is rarely low-owned — but of goaltenders with over 30 games played he trails only Matt Murray with his 62.9 percent Consistency Rating.
Murray: DFS Scouting Report
Trends
Let’s explore his overall production to find the situations in which Murray has been reliable.
Vegas
Wins heavily impact goaltender scoring in NHL DFS, so it makes sense to target Vegas favorites. Here are the different moneyline ranges for starters:
Underdog goalies typically have reduced ownership — but far less value and lower Consistency Ratings.
Here are those same moneyline ranges for Holtby:
Holtby has provided a ton of value and Consistency as a favorite — with lower ownership as a slight favorite — but he has been terrible on the rare occasions when Washington has been an underdog: Low Plus/Minus and Consistency and ridiculously high ownership.
Home/Away
In terms of splits, goalies typically provide more value and higher Consistency at home, but they also have nearly double the ownership, which Pro subscribers can review in our DFS Ownership Dashboard shortly after lineups lock.
Although his teammates Alex Ovechkin and Nicklas Backstrom experience only a slight bump in value at home, Holtby’s splits have been much more significant:
Because of his inflated ownership, Holtby may not be a great tournament option at home, but for cash games he offers a higher level of value and overall safety.
Ovechkin: DFS Scouting Report
Backstrom: DFS Scouting Report
Division Games
Division games typically have little impact on a starting goaltender’s value. Intriguingly — and in direct contrast to Ovechkin — Holtby has absolutely owned the Metropolitan division:
For whatever reason, Holtby has performed his best in games that mean more for his team. From a DFS perspective, targeting him in division games has provided significant benefit in the past.
Peripheral Stats and Shots Against
On DraftKings and FanDuel, a goalie receives the same number of points for a win as any player receives for a goal. That’s substantial.
We talk a lot about the impact of peripheral stats on skaters, but at goalie they may be even more crucial. Saves are more common than shots and blocked shots — but if there is one knock on Holtby, it’s that he typically doesn’t have the opportunity to accrue a lot of saves:
Like Martin Jones — who sees very few shots in San Jose — Holtby has relatively little volume, which is good for the Capitals but bad for the DFS production of their goalie.
In comparison to the NHL average — or Murray with the Penguins — Holtby is unique in that his value is carried more by win percentage, goals against average, and shutout totals than peripheral stats.
Jones: DFS Scouting Report
Bargain Rating
Bargain Rating is a proprietary FantasyLabs metric that shows how expensive a player is on one site versus another. Bargain Rating enables DFS players to exploit significant differences in site pricing.
Holtby is consistently one of the highest-priced goalies in DFS, but this season he has had a DraftKings Bargain Rating of at least 90 percent in 64.52 percent of his games, a circumstance under which he’s done well:
At the same time, there are circumstances in which he’s been rosterable on FanDuel. As a moneyline favorite in the -175 to -1 range, Holtby has been comparably productive at just 5 percent ownership:
Stacking the Capitals
Here’s the average production for Washington players during Holtby’s 20 best fantasy performances of the past two seasons:
DraftKings
FanDuel
Stacking the Capitals is awesome if you’re willing to pay up for the top line (Ovechkin-Backstrom-Oshie), which probably has the best correlation of any line in the entire league.
Also, all of these players receive significant power play minutes. Stacking Washington as a whole is relatively difficult due to pricing (even before paying up at goaltender), so going with a near-minimum option like Karl Alzner or Nate Schmidt has also been successful in the past.
Conclusion
Holtby is an elite talent, with one of the best teams in the league in front of him. He has smashed value in division games and provided the most contrarian upside as a slight favorite on FanDuel. Ultimately, besides his high price and reduced production as an underdog, Holtby doesn’t have many negative attributes as a player.
He is one of the few goaltenders in the league whose lack of a peripheral floor is relatively unconcerning, given the extent to which he accumulates wins, shutouts, and saves. Holtby has GPP-winning upside as a stacking candidate with superstar teammates if you can afford it.
