This article is one in a series that uses the FantasyLabs Tools to build daily fantasy scouting reports for each of the NHL’s brightest stars.
The San Jose Sharks currently sit atop the Pacific Division and Martin Jones is no stranger to playing as a Vegas favorite. Is that enough to make him an elite DFS option?
Statistical Breakdown
Here are Jones’ per-game averages as the No. 1 goaltender for the Sharks:
With a strong team in front of him, Jones’ consistency is attractive — but he doesn’t even crack the top 15 in overall save percentage.
From a fantasy perspective Jones has seen a decrease in Plus/Minus since his 2015-16 run to the Stanley Cup Finals (per our Trends tool):
Intriguingly, even though his raw and salary-adjusted production on DraftKings has declined, he actually has a significantly higher Consistency Rating this season. He’s provided value this season more frequently than last year, but when he hasn’t hit his salary-based expectations he’s been bad.
Trends
Let’s see if there are particular situations in which Jones has historically provided an edge.
Vegas
Wins heavily impact goaltender scoring in NHL DFS, so it makes sense to target Vegas favorites. Here are the different moneyline ranges for starters:
Underdog goalies typically have reduced ownership — but far less value and lower Consistency Ratings.
Here are those same moneyline ranges for Jones:
Jones has provided a ton of value and Consistency as a large favorite and also a slight underdog. This season especially, however, he’s most frequently been in the middle (-175 to -1), a range in which he’s been at his worst.
Home/Away
In terms of splits, goalies typically provide more value and higher Consistency at home, but they also have nearly double the ownership:
Much like his teammate Brent Burns (DFS Scouting Report), Jones has lower ownership and superior performance as a visitor over the past two seasons:
In 2016-17, Jones has still been better on the road than at home . . .
. . . but he hasn’t actually been good on the road. Still, with nearly half of the ownership he has at home, Jones offers some contrarian intrigue.
Division Games
Division games typically have little impact on a starting goaltender’s value:
This season Jones has the lower Plus/Minus in non-division games:
At the same time, he has higher Consistency and Upside Ratings (and ownership) outside of divisional games. In particular, Jones has been his best against the Metropolitan Division this year while also enjoying remarkably low ownership.
It’s not ideal that his sample of games against the Metropolitan is low. At the same time, it’s possible that he’s done well against the division because the skaters in the division are less familiar with him.
Peripheral Stats and Shots Against
On DraftKings and FanDuel, a goalie receives the same number of points for a win as any player receives for a goal. That’s substantial. That said, how is it possible that Jones — who has the seventh-most wins at the position and hits his expectations more often than not — has a negative Plus/Minus on the season?
We talk a lot about the impact of peripheral stats on skaters, but at goalie they may be even more crucial. Saves are more common than shots and blocked shots, but Jones hasn’t had the opportunity this season to accrue a lot of saves:
In comparison to the NHL average — or a team like the Buffalo Sabres — San Jose sees relatively little shot against volume, which is good for Sharks but bad for the DFS production of their goalie.
Salary Sweet Spot
DraftKings
Part of Jones’ problem could also be his salary. Based on his 2016-17 average of 4.37 DraftKings points per game (PPG), his implied salary should be around $6,700. He has been priced at $7,300 and higher in each game this season.
FanDuel
Based on his 2016-17 average of 17.31 FanDuel PPG, his implied salary should be around $8,800. He has been priced at $8,800 and lower in 55.17 percent of his games this season.
As is the case with Carey Price (DFS Scouting Report), Jones has a much friendlier salary on FanDuel this season.
Stacking the Sharks
Here’s the average production for San Jose players during Jones’ 20 best fantasy performances of the past two seasons:
DraftKings
FanDuel
Stacking Jones with an elite peripheral stat skater in Brent Burns has been productive in these situations: It may be worth it to pay up at defenseman.
The Correlations tab in our Player Models also highlights the viability a sniper like Logan Couture has with Jones. Cheaper options like Jannik Hansen or Joel Ward are also in play.
Conclusion
Despite his lack of peripheral stats, Jones deserves consideration when the Sharks are heavily favored. Over the last two years, he’s been better on the road than at home, and this year he’s been more reasonably priced on FanDuel and has been his best against the Metropolitan Division, against which he’s played the fewest games.
