In this piece, I highlight quarterbacks who stand out in our large suite of analytical fantasy tools, most specifically, our FantasyLabs Player Models. While the models are built for DFS contests, this is an all-purpose fantasy article with actionable information for all formats.
As news breaks throughout the week and we adjust our projections (powered by Sean Koerner), player ratings in our Player Models will change as the projections change. For updates, visit the models directly.
Top NFL DFS Quarterback Picks in the FantasyLabs Models
On DraftKings, there is one quarterback near the top of the individual Sean Koerner, Chris Raybon, Cash Game, and Tournament Player Models.
- Jalen Hurts
We’ll discuss why this one is popping in our models, as well as take a look at some other quarterbacks.
Top Model NFL DFS Quarterback Picks
Jalen Hurts ($7,200 DraftKings, $9,200 FanDuel): Philadelphia Eagles (-2.5) vs. San Francisco 49ers (46.5 total)
Jalen Hurts sits unrivaled atop all four of our models as he and the Eagles are riding high off of a 38-7 drubbing of the New York Giants. Hurts had an easy day, easily throwing for 154 yards and a pair of touchdowns while carrying the ball nine times for 34 yards and a touchdown on the ground. A 28-0 halftime lead meant Philadelphia could just hand the ball off to their running backs and prepare for a home conference championship game.
We may see Hurts need to use his arm more than he’s had to in weeks past, as the 49ers are a big pass-funnel defense. They boast one of the best-run defenses in the league, allowing the least DraftKings points to opposing running backs.
San Francisco has faced the second-highest percentage of passing plays of anyone in the league. Opposing offenses know that their best path to success is through the air. The matchup still isn’t enticing, as the 49ers have allowed the seventh-fewest DraftKings points to opposing signal callers.
The 49ers have allowed 20+ rushing yards to opposing quarterbacks in each of the past three games, so maybe Hurts’ legs will be an avenue for his success. There are only two games, and these are some of the best teams in the league, so it’s hard to expect many enticing matchups.
Hurts is the top option of the weekend.
Other Notable NFL DFS Quarterback Picks
Patrick Mahomes ($7,600 DraftKings, $8,500 FanDuel): Kansas City Chiefs (-1.5) vs. Cincinnati Bengals (48 total)
Patrick Mahomes sustained a high right ankle sprain in last weekend’s divisional-round playoff win over Jacksonville but was able to return to action and gut it out. His mobility was clearly limited after the injury, and although he’s appeared fine in practice clips this week, we’ll see for sure how affected he is on Sunday.
The Bengals have limited Mahomes in their last few matchups, as he’s had less than 22 DraftKings points in the last three games against Lou Anarumo’s defense. Mahomes completed just 59.3% of his passes for 223 yards when these teams played in Week 13, so it’s certainly worrisome. If Mahomes is, in fact, limited, that big-time hurts his upside. He still has a higher passing floor than both Jalen Hurts and Brock Purdy, but he loses out on a bit of ceiling if he’s struggling to get out of the pocket.
Joe Burrow ($6,800 DraftKings, $8,300 FanDuel): Cincinnati Bengals (+1.5) at Kansas City Chiefs (48 total)
Joe Burrow and the Bengals seem to be putting on another magical run as they did last postseason. Burrow completed 23 of 36 passes for 242 yards and two touchdowns in Buffalo last week while carrying the ball six times for 31 yards. He totaled 20.78 DraftKings points, nearly matching his 21.26 total in the Wild Card round against Baltimore.
He certainly has the best matchup of any of the quarterbacks, as the Chiefs have allowed the fifth-most DraftKings points to opposing quarterbacks on the season, with the other three defense ranking in the top seven. Burrow was very successful against this defense in Week 13, throwing for 286 yards and two touchdowns while adding 46 yards and a touchdown on the ground.
PrizePicks is running a promo — where you can bet the over on his passing yards prop at 0.5 passing yards.
Use PrizePicks promo code LABS to get up to a $100 deposit match.
Brock Purdy ($5,300 DraftKings, $6,900 FanDuel): San Francisco 49ers (+2.5) at Philadelphia Eagles (46.5 total)
The NFL’s Championship weekend has come with no surprises. The four quarterbacks who we expected to be left standing are duking it out for the crown. Mahomes, Hurts, Burrow, and Brock Purdy. Just what we expected.
Purdy turned in his worst performance last week since taking the reins as the leader of this San Francisco offense. He completed 19 of 29 passes for 214 yards but was unable to find the end zone. The Dallas defense is a tough matchup, so it’s understandable that Purdy struggled. The bad news? The matchup with Philadelphia is no easier. The case for Purdy this weekend is simply that you can utilize the salary savings he provides you to upgrade other parts of your lineup.