After an exciting 2022 PGA Championship, the PGA TOUR heads back to Texas to play the Charles Schwab Challenge.
Colonial Country Club is a 7,209-yard par 70 and features Bentgrass greens. The difficulty of the event this week could be influenced by course setup or wind. It can play relatively easy or relatively difficult depending on pin locations and firmness of the greens, but the last three seasons have all produced winners with scores between -13 and -15.
The Charles Schwab Challenge is an invitational that will host 121 golfers this week, and the field is very strong despite it being the week after a major championship. Some notable golfers in the field include Scottie Scheffler, Justin Thomas, Collin Morikawa, Viktor Hovland, Xander Schauffele, Jordan Spieth, Abraham Ancer, Will Zalatoris, Sam Burns, and Tony Finau.
For GPP contests on DraftKings, I will be breaking down the key stats (past 24 rounds) and selecting golfers from different price tiers to provide flexibility for a DFS lineup.
And if you missed it, we added two new metrics in our models — Perfect% and SimLeverage. You can find an explainer on those metrics here.
The cliff notes version is that you can use SimLeverage to quickly find leverage plays in tournaments, while Perfect% is great for finding the best price-considered plays for cash games.
This analysis may reference Strokes Gained, a set of proprietary metrics generated by the PGA TOUR using millions of data points to calculate how many shots on average it takes a player to get the ball in the hole from every distance and situation.
Strokes Gained is now available in the FantasyLabs PGA Models.
Strokes Gained: Approach
Strokes Gained: Approach will be a major factor this week. It grades out as the most important statistic historically in events played at Colonial Country Club, and that should be the case once again this week.
- High-end target: Jordan Spieth — $10,400 (3rd in Strokes Gained: Approach)
- Mid-range target: Daniel Berger— $9,000 (6th in Strokes Gained: Approach)
- Value target: C.T. Pan— $7,500 (12th in Strokes Gained: Approach)
Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee
Both distance and accuracy will be important this week. Historically, shorter hitters who find the fairway have thrived at Colonial, but last year we saw a lot of the players in the star-studded field use big drives to eliminate the challenge of doglegs and fairway bunkers. The rough can be thick and penal, so finding the fairway will remain important.
- High-end target: Will Zalatoris— $10,100 (6th Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee)
- Mid-range target: Sebastian Munoz— $7,700 (3rd Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee)
- Value target: Hayden Buckley — $6,000 (10th Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee)
Par 4: 400-450
With seven par 4s on the course that are between 400 and 450 yards, I am targeting golfers who excel on these types of holes. With only two par 5s on the course, par 4 scoring will be even more important.
- High-end target: Scottie Scheffler $11,200 (4th Par 4: 400-450)
- Mid-range target: Justin Rose— $7,700 (1st Par 4: 400-450)
- Value target: Adam Long— $6,900 (11th Par 4: 400-450)
Course history seems to be much more important at Colonial Country Club than most other courses. The same players tend to pop up on leaderboards here year after year.
- High-end target: Jordan Spieth— $10,400 (1st Course History)
- Mid-range target: Justin Rose— $7,700 (3rd Course History)
- Value target: Kevin Kisner— $7,400 (6th Course History)
Strokes Gained: Putting (Bentgrass)
The Bentgrass greens at Colonial are in immaculate condition, and putters who roll it pure are at an advantage. Historically, great putters have thrived at Colonial.
- High-end target: Abraham Ancer — $9,300 (12th in Strokes Gained: Putting Bentgrass)
- Mid-range target: Justin Rose— $7,700 (6th in Strokes Gained: Putting Bentgrass)
- Value target: Beau Hossler — $6,500 (1st in Strokes Gained: Putting Bentgrass)